Türkiye as the bridge: How Erdogan’s foreign policy can shape ties with EU

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election in May saw a wave of congratulatory messages from global leaders, especially the political leadership of Europe.

Among the first foreign leaders to congratulate Erdogan was European Council President Charles Michel. During a telephonic conversation, Michel discussed Türkiye’s potential accession to the 27-member bloc, besides issues related to visa liberalisation, migration management and counter-terrorism operations.

In a subsequent tweet, Michel also indicated the importance of the EU’s strategic and mutually beneficial relationship with Türkiye.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s congratulatory tweet after Erdogan’s win and his messages on the Mediterranean and Euro-Atlantic alliance all point towards the Turkish President’s status as a statesman in Europe.

The expectations of more cooperation between Ankara and Brussels in Erdogan’s new term are largely based on “strategic autonomy”, a concept increasingly propagated by Macron and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, especially in the context of the bloc’s ties with China.

What is strategic autonomy?

In simple terms, strategic autonomy is “the capacity to act” independently – with a combination of foreign policy, development of national defence capacities, and energy security and economic independence.

For Europe, it means decreasing the dependence on the US while being capable of acting freely when it comes to relations with other countries, mainly Russia, China, or Iran.

During a visit to Beijing, along with European Commission chief Von der Leyen, French President Macron, who desires stronger economic ties with China and less dependence on the US, emphasised the need for strategic autonomy for the EU.

Here’s how this strategic autonomy discourse can shape Türkiye-EU relations in the next few years.

Türkiye as a bridge

Located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, Türkiye stands with a unique geographical advantage. And it also helps that under Erdogan, Ankara has followed a diplomatic policy of maintaining good relations with both the West and East.

“Türkiye's central location in the context of Asia and Europe offers a more effective communication and cooperation opportunity with the region for the EU,” says Professor Mehmet Seyfettin Erol, the founding chairman of the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies (ANKASAM).

With the Northern Corridor – which connects the East with Europe through Russian and Belarusian territory – blockaded due to the Ukraine conflict, the Middle Corridor initiative of the Turkish state has risen in prominence as an alternative.

Starting in Türkiye, the Middle Corridor passes through the Caucasus region and Central Asia to reach China, following the ancient Silk Road that connected Europe with the Orient.

Erol says the Middle Corridor provides Türkiye with the leverage of controlling what could be one of the major trade routes in the new world order.

“Türkiye now has the capacity to provide the safest, lowest cost and shortest route for goods produced in China and delivered to Europe thanks to the Middle Corridor initiative,” Professor Erol tells TRT World.

Türkiye as the mediator

The EU – stuck between the Russia-US and China-US rivalries – had a narrow capacity to act independently on different foreign policy issues.

The debate about strategic autonomy inside the EU, according to Professor Erol, is where Türkiye, Erdogan, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict come into the picture.

Türkiye’s balanced relations with both sides, insistence on only following UN Security Council-approved sanctions and its diplomatic efforts in the Grain Deal prevented a potential global foodgrain crisis.

Under the grain deal, signed in Istanbul and brokered by Türkiye and the UN, prevented the possible food crisis by allowing the export of Ukrainian products via the Black Sea.

“Türkiye's multidimensional foreign policy has brought comforting results for Europe in the context of the Russia-Ukraine War,” says Professor Erol.

The conflict has shown the EU the importance of pursuing a more multidimensional and independent foreign policy, away from US influence.

Mustafa Fisne, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Afyon Kocatepe University, says that “Turkish strategic autonomy could be a model for the European Union”.

An energy hub for Europe

Energy security is another component of strategic autonomy Europe aspires to. The Russia-Ukraine war exacerbated the energy crisis inside the EU after Russia cut flow of the gas to Europe and affected the energy markets.

Erdogan has been stressing Türkiye’s desire to become an energy hub for Europe, a proposal backed by Russia.

Türkiye already has extensive liquefied natural gas (LNG) import infrastructure which can be expanded to re-supply fuel to European nations.

“Through the energy transits, Türkiye can provide uninterrupted gas flow to Europe,” says Professor Fisne.

Not only being a lucrative market for European investors, Türkiye “proposes a safe route for the flows of goods and services and energy transport in the context of the Middle Corridor” resulting from the blockage of the Northern Corridor due to the war, tells Erol.