Türkiye elections: A significant shift in parliamentary arithmetic

Nearly 56 million Turkish citizens voted in Türkiye’s presidential and parliamentary elections on Sunday, and they will head to the polling booths again on May 28 for a run-off to choose the country’s president for the next five years.

Despite a run-off for the presidential election, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AK Party and their People’s Alliance have secured a majority with 322 seats in the 600-member Turkish Parliament, according to unofficial results.

The parliamentary arithmetic underwent significant changes in the May 14 elections. Although there is a threshold of a seven percent vote-share for political parties to have representatives in the parliament, Türkiye’s election alliances enable parties to field their MP candidates on the same lists and make their way to the parliament even with a very small number of votes.

AK Party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), Yesil Sol Party, and Iyi Party reached the necessary number of seats to form parliamentary groups.

However, Yeniden Refah Party, Huda Par, Demokratik Sol Party, Türkiye Change Party, and Türkiye Worker's Party have surpassed the electoral threshold within alliances and gained representation in the parliament.

As the final results are being tallied and finalised, let’s take a closer look at the outcome of the elections.

Erdogan maintains popularity and trust

Türkiye's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has once again proved his popularity, securing a winning level of support nationwide.

His party, the AK Party, also maintained its dominance by securing 267 seats, the highest number overall, continuing to hold a strong position in parliament as part of the People's Alliance alongside the Yeniden Refah Party and MHP.

The alliance also proved successful and obtained a majority in the parliament with 323 seats.

Meanwhile, the Nation’s Alliance, consisting of the CHP and the Iyi Party, received 35 percent of the votes to secure 212 parliamentary seats.

The Labour and Freedom Alliance, including the Yesil Sol Party and the Türkiye Worker's Party, received 10.5 percent of the votes and will have 65 seats.

MHP Defies expectations

Contrary to predictions, Türkiye's nationalist party, MHP, exceeded expectations by winning 50 seats in parliament.

Despite various other nationalist parties fielding candidates, the MHP successfully retained its support base, contributing to the government alliance's majority in parliament.

Religious conservative message earns seats

The Yeniden Refah Party, founded by the son of prominent former politician Necmettin Erbakan, ran as part of the AK Party-led People's Alliance, advocating a more assertive religious conservative message. Their efforts paid off as they secured five parliamentary seats.

Opposition struggles to make an impact

In the general election, the Deva Party, Gelecek Party, Saadet Party and the Demokrat Party ran for election on the CHP lists as part of the Nation’s Alliance.

However, this collaboration did not result in a substantial increase in CHP votes. Although the CHP's vote share increased by approximately three percent, there was no significant change in the number of CHP representatives in parliament.

Ali Babacan’s Deva Party and Ahmet Davutoglu’s Gelecek Party failed to contribute to any increase in the opposition's vote share.

Similarly, Temel Karamollaoglu’s Saadet Party could not flip any of the more conservative seats.

In contrast, the Yeniden Refah Party managed to attract many of the votes which the three conservative parties running on CHP’s lists hoped to garner.

Nevertheless, the parties running on the CHP lists benefited from this cooperation. Despite the Deva, Gelecek, and Saadet Party’s contributing to a three-percentage-point increase in CHP votes, a considerable number of around 40 candidates from the alliance parties secured seats in parliament running on CHP's lists.

Iyi Party's performance stagnates

The election results demonstrate that the Iyi Party did not experience a significant change in its vote share compared to the 2018 elections.

Despite the Iyi Party being the fifth-largest party in parliament, more nationalist voters than expected seemed to remain loyal to the MHP. The second round of Presidential elections will be between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu and is set for May 28.