Türkiye, Syria reconciliation can ensure Middle East stability, say experts

In recent months, Türkiye and Syria have indicated their willingness to set aside their differences and work out a compromise that can reestablish ties between the two neighbouring countries.

Diplomatic relations froze in 2011 at the onset of a civil war that split Syria between forces loyal to regime leader Bashar Al Assad and the opposition-led fighters who were resisting the bloody crackdown of Damascus on pro-democracy demonstrations.

Over the years, more than 3 million refugees from Syria arrived in Türkiye as they fled the civil war. The Syrian civil war provided the grounds for a vacuum where the PKK/YPG and other terrorist organizations thrived within the border regions of Syria.

The recent events particularly the growing Israeli influence within the region following the ongoing genocide in Gaza that has spiralled since October 7, 2023, also necessitated the need for a rapprochement between old neighbours.

Discussions around Turkish-Syrian normalisation have gained momentum recently, as both countries have tried to start a dialogue for some years now.

For many analysts, the key question has never been whether Türkiye would restore relations with Syria, but rather when it would occur.

“Efforts to restore ties are not new; they have a long history, with covert diplomacy often taking the lead,” says Murat Aslan, an associate professor of political science at Hasan Kalyoncu University, to TRT World.

“The more united Syria and Türkiye are, the less room there is for external actors and terrorist organisations such as the PKK, YPG, and ISIS (Daesh) to exploit the region’s divisions.”

Bridging the gap

Despite more than a decade of strained relations, Türkiye has remained one of the staunchest defenders of Syria’s territorial integrity and unity.

Experts say that as a NATO member with significant influence in the region, Ankara’s long-term strategic interests hinge on preserving a unified Syria.

A fragmented and weakened Syria could provide a vacuum for terrorist organisations to thrive, threatening both Damascus and Türkiye’s national security.

“Türkiye’s strategy has always been about preventing Syria’s division,” explains a regional security analyst. “A fractured Syria not only destabilises the region but also heightens security risks for Ankara.”

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has underscored Türkiye’s pivotal role in the Syrian peace process, calling on global powers to support its efforts. Following the NATO summit in Washington DC in July, Erdogan stressed that achieving peace in Syria is vital not only for the two nations but for regional stability as a whole.

By the end of the year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Assad might be shaking hands on neutral ground—marking the end of a 13-year diplomatic impasse, officials say.

Border security and counter-terrorism

Türkiye’s insistence on Syria’s unity is part of a broader goal to prevent external powers from exploiting the country’s instability, which could further destabilise the region.

Central to Türkiye’s security concerns is the presence of the PKK/YPG and its affiliated groups that have leveraged Syria’s turmoil to control territory in the northeast. For years, Türkiye has fought the battle against terrorism on its own.

"Without addressing the issue of sovereignty in war-torn regions, efforts to combat terrorism will remain incomplete. This is a cornerstone of Türkiye’s approach in Syria," Aslan emphasises.

Normalising relations with Syria could allow both governments to coordinate efforts more effectively, enhancing border security and countering the threat of terrorism.

“Collaborating with a stronger Syrian administration could reduce the PKK/YPG’s influence along our borders,” a Turkish security official says.

For Erdogan, the prospect of a YPG/PKK-controlled entity on Türkiye’s southern border remains unacceptable and a profound national security threat. As Ankara pursues normalisation with Damascus, these security concerns will likely shape the terms of any reconciliation.

Israel's increasing aggression

The second factor driving Ankara’s push for normalisation is the growing offensive of Israel within the region, particularly in light of Israel's war on Gaza.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently pointed to Gaza as a symbol of regional instability, describing the situation as “a dagger in the heart of the Islamic world” and Gaza as a place where “humanity is witnessing a genocide.”

Another factor behind Ankara’s push to normalise relations with Syria is the rights of the Syrian refugees residing in Türkiye.

Türkiye currently hosts approximately 3 million Syrian refugees. Ankara hopes that a stable Syria will help them repatriate safely. Türkiye aims to support Syria’s reconstruction and help create the conditions for refugees to opt for a voluntary, safe return home.

For Türkiye, a stable Syria is essential for countering external threats since some analysts fear that any escalation can destabilise the entire region and thwart peace.

A unified Syria, backed by Türkiye, could provide a stronghold against these challenges.

As global powers remain divided, experts say that Türkiye’s bid to help restore stability in Syria through cooperation, counterterrorism, and diplomacy represents the best way forward.

"Türkiye’s efforts to normalise relations with Syria are driven by the need for regional stability, but achieving peace requires a commitment to humanitarian law and mutual respect between nations," says Murat Aslan.