Türkiye weighs the diplomatic styles of Trump, Biden as US elections loom

With the US presidential race increasingly shaping up as a contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the outcome will have significant implications for Türkiye’s tricky relations with Washington.

Whether a Democrat or a Republican wins the White House, Ankara faces a daunting diplomatic agenda based on its own national security and regional interests.

Murat Aslan, a defence analyst and associate professor at Hasan Kalyoncu University, emphasises that the direction of US-Türkiye relations could change significantly based on the election outcome.

Under Biden, tensions between the US and Türkiye have persisted. Biden’s diplomatic approach, grounded in traditional institutional frameworks, contrasts with Trump’s more direct and deal-making style, which Ankara found easier to navigate.

During Trump’s four-year presidency, Türkiye had more direct access to the US administration. Trump’s 2019 decision to withdraw US troops from northern Syria marked a pivotal moment for Turkish security interests, granting Ankara the space to assert its influence in the region and push back YPG/PKK terrorists.

“Trump’s decision to pull US troops from northern Syria was a significant turning point for Türkiye,” notes Aslan. “It showed the advantages of direct leader-to-leader communication.”

YPG is the Syrian branch of the PKK terrorist organisation, which has waged a decades-long terror campaign against Türkiye, killing tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers.

Experts suggest that a Harris presidency might continue the Biden-era status quo unless tempered by more Türkiye-friendly advisers, while Trump’s return could at least revive stalled dialogue between the two countries.

Helin Sari Ertem, associate professor of political science at Medeniyet University, underlines the divergent diplomatic approaches. “Trump’s policy was highly personality-driven, leading to unexpected decisions that sometimes worked in Türkiye’s favour,” she explains. “Biden’s policies have been more conventional, but the friction over issues like the PKK, YPG and the Eastern Mediterranean remains.”

Under Trump, Türkiye capitalised on Washington’s more flexible, transactional stance, which benefited its regional ambitions, particularly in counterterrorism operations.

The Eastern Mediterranean balancing act

One of the most contentious issues straining US-Türkiye relations is the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Türkiye’s assertiveness over territorial waters, offshore energy exploration, and its military presence has brought it into direct conflict with Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration.

Trump’s administration shifted US policy toward greater cooperation with Greece, strengthening military ties and enhancing diplomatic relations with Athens and Lefkosa (Nicosia).

The Biden administration has furthered this approach, with indications of continued multilateral engagement, strengthening partnerships with Greece, Greek Cyprus, and Israel.

The US recently signed a defence pact with the Greek Cypriot administration, ignoring the interests of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Ankara views these developments as undermining its strategic interests.

“Even with the US leaning towards Greece and Cyprus under Biden, Türkiye’s geopolitical significance keeps it a key player in the region,” says Ertem. “A potential Trump return might recalibrate the balance, but deep-seated tensions will remain.”

The US has long attempted to balance its relationships with both Türkiye and Greece, both NATO allies. “Under Trump, the tilt toward Greece was noticeable,” adds Ertem. “Future administrations will need to tread carefully to avoid further exacerbating tensions.”

What lies ahead?

For decades, US-Türkiye relations have been shaped by military cooperation, regional security, and counterterrorism efforts. However, ongoing conflicts in Syria, disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean, and tensions over Gaza and Lebanon continue to challenge the partnership.

“The election might shift the tone, but the underlying dynamics of US-Türkiye relations are unlikely to change dramatically,” observes Ertem. “Türkiye will need to navigate these global challenges while safeguarding its own security interests.”

Aslan echoes this view: “No matter who wins, Türkiye remains critical to US strategic interests in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. The challenge for Ankara is ensuring its voice is heard, and its security needs are met in an increasingly multipolar world.”

Regardless of the election’s outcome, Türkiye is expected to continue pursuing an independent foreign policy while maintaining its pivotal role in regional and global stability.