What does Norway’s shift on defence policy mean for Türkiye?

Norway has lifted its restrictions on defence exports to Türkiye. It marks a significant turning point in Norway-Türkiye relations, as well as a shift in the Scandinavian country’s defence policy. The decision reflects a broader realignment of international views on Türkiye’s evolving role within NATO and the security of the wider region.

Announced after a phone call between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and his Norwegian counterpart Espen Barth Eide, the lifting of the embargo underscores both nations’ intent to strengthen ties. The update was shared on X (formerly Twitter) by Turkish Foreign Ministry Spokesman Oncu Keceli, further emphasising the diplomatic significance of the move.

The embargo was imposed in 2019, when Norway, alongside other European nations, restricted defence exports to Türkiye in response to Operation Peace Spring, an anti-terror intervention by Türkiye in northern Syria. Western governments condemned the operation. For Türkiye, however, these restrictions were seen as inconsistent with NATO’s collective security framework, a point raised repeatedly in diplomatic circles.

During their phone call, Fidan expressed relief at the Norwegian decision, viewing the restrictions as a violation of NATO’s “spirit of alliance”. Norway’s shift is seen in Türkiye as a recognition of the complex security challenges the country faces on its borders and a potential harbinger of further thawing in relations with other NATO allies.

Evolving geopolitical calculations

The decision to reverse the embargo is not just about warming bilateral ties but reflects wider geopolitical considerations.

“Norway’s decision to lift its defence industry embargo on Türkiye stems from several key factors. The most significant reason is tied to the NATO memberships of Finland and Sweden,” says Yusuf Alabarda, a prominent defence analyst, to TRT World.

Alabarda argues that the inclusion of Finland and Sweden into NATO has encouraged Norway to reconsider its regional alliances and consolidate unity. The embargo’s removal, he contends, makes diplomatic and strategic sense given the new Scandinavian bloc’s desire for smoother relations with Türkiye, a critical player on NATO’s southern flank.

Lifting the restrictions opens the door to renewed defence cooperation between Norway and Türkiye, particularly in technology and aerospace. With Türkiye’s defence industry expanding rapidly, the Scandinavian nation is positioning itself to capitalise on growing trade opportunities.

“Türkiye’s role in the region has always been important for NATO, but this decision is primarily about trade,” says Karsten Friis, a research professor at the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. Friis believes the thaw could unlock fresh markets for Norwegian companies in Türkiye, potentially deepening political ties as economic cooperation grows.

According to the Norwegian government, defence exports from Oslo to Ankara stood at nearly $4 million in 2018 but dropped roughly to $1 million in 2020 due to the restrictions.

While Norway’s defence industry is not vast, it offers niche technologies that could appeal to Türkiye, particularly in aviation. Joint ventures in the aerospace sector—including collaborations on Türkiye’s Kaan and Hurjet aircraft—are likely avenues of partnership.

As Türkiye continues to develop its indigenous defence capabilities, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and advanced military technologies, Norway is keen to ensure it maintains a presence in this market.

Türkiye’s self-sufficiency drive

The broader international context of Norway’s decision is shaped by Türkiye’s increasing focus on self-reliance in defence. Facing repeated embargoes from traditional Western suppliers, Ankara has accelerated its efforts to develop domestic alternatives. When faced with difficulties in acquiring key components—such as engines for its Altay tanks—Türkiye turned to countries like South Korea and invested in its own defence technologies.

This push for independence, while crucial for Türkiye’s national security, has also prompted European nations to reconsider their restrictions. As Türkiye’s defence industry grows more self-sufficient, traditional suppliers risk losing long-term access to a lucrative market. This dynamic, experts suggest, played a role in Norway’s decision to act now.

From Norway’s perspective, lifting the embargo allows it to pursue new opportunities in Türkiye’s rapidly growing defence industry.

Alabarda pointed out that Norway may prefer to engage in partnerships in Türkiye’s growing aviation sector. “Norway sees an opportunity for cooperation in aviation, particularly in Türkiye’s unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and national aircraft programs like Kaan and Hurjet,” he noted.

Maintaining a foothold in Türkiye’s defence market, Norway is keen to explore collaborations in cutting-edge Turkish defence projects, such as the Kizilelma and ANKA 3 UAVs.

Alabarda emphasised that Norway has relatively few products to offer beyond aviation, making cooperation in these areas crucial for maintaining a role in Türkiye’s rapidly advancing defence landscape.

Norway’s decision to lift its defence restrictions on Türkiye is emblematic of the broader changes within NATO as new geopolitical realities take shape. As the alliance adapts to the evolving security environment—particularly following Finland and Sweden’s accession—alliances are being recalibrated, and regional security strategies adjusted.

For Türkiye, the lifting of the embargo is a diplomatic win that aligns with its broader effort to further strengthen relationships within NATO.