What Erdogan’s election victory means for Türkiye’s NATO partners

Following the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan as Türkiye’s President last month, the spotlight is back on the ties between Ankara and NATO, especially in the context of Sweden’s bid to join the security bloc.

Congratulatory messages to Erdogan from world leaders – calling for continued cooperation and strong relations with Türkiye – have flooded in.

Nevertheless, Erdogan’s victory has introduced the possibility of a course change for some countries, potentially necessitating a reassessment of their Ankara policies.

Erdogan has held talks with several leaders following his inauguration ceremony, attended by high-level officials from some 80 countries and representatives of international organisations, including NATO's Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Calling Türkiye a significant and greatly appreciated partner, Stoltenberg commended Ankara’s role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, notably in securing the Black Sea grain initiative, which has allowed the export of millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain to countries in need.

He also spoke about his expectations from Türkiye on Sweden's NATO bid, saying he looks forward to finalising the Nordic nation’s accession as soon as possible.

The same week, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the US President Joe Biden discussed the sale of F-16 fighter jets and Sweden joining NATO when Biden called to congratulate the Turkish president on his election victory.

Experts say that the focus will now be on the diplomatic path Ankara takes in its dealings with several countries.

Sweden’s entry

Over the years, President Erdogan’s been resolute in his assertion that all NATO allies must address Türkiye's security concerns. And there was a broad view in NATO that a different result in the Turkish elections could have steered Sweden's NATO story in an entirely different direction.

“NATO hoped that if the opposition won, they could smoothly add Sweden as a NATO member. Now that Erdogan has become the president, they have to accommodate his concerns," Professor Sami Al Arian, the Director of the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) at Istanbul Zaim University, tells TRT World.

Because of the limited time left for NATO’s Vilnius summit, Sweden has very little time to clean up its act.

“As we’ve seen in recent days, Sweden has taken an important step by passing legislation that criminalises all sorts of support activities for terrorist organisations like the PKK,” former US diplomat Matthew Bryza tells TRT World.

However, “the one remaining issue is Türkiye's demands for PKK and FETO suspects to be extradited to Türkiye from Sweden,” he adds.

On Tuesday, Sweden's Supreme Court granted permission for the government to deport a PKK supporter to Türkiye. The court's decision now places the responsibility on the Swedish government to determine whether to proceed with the extradition. It would be the first instance of Sweden extraditing a PKK supporter to Türkiye if implemented.

However, individuals expressing sympathy for the PKK/YPG terrorist group have been openly participating in protests against the new anti-terrorism law. Last month, supporters of the PKK exhibited propaganda targeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Swedish officials on the facade of the Parliament building in Stockholm.

Türkiye has urged Swedish authorities not to permit PKK sympathisers to engage in terrorism propaganda under police protection.

But there are indications that Sweden’s fault extends beyond merely tolerating PKK members within its borders. Last year, Swedish-manufactured AT-4 anti-tank missiles were seized by Turkish security forces at a cave used by PKK terrorists as a hideout in northern Iraq.

During a press conference this week, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson claimed that it had fulfilled “all the conditions of the agreement” it had reached with Türkiye. “Türkiye is the only one who has to decide on joining NATO from now on, not us,” he added.

But for Ankara, his words would have rung hollow, given the recent provocative activities by PKK supporters in Sweden.

Relations with the US

Türkiye’s roles as a NATO ally appear to be growing more autonomous and less reliant on its relations with the United States. As ongoing dialogues on various issues persist between the two, new initiatives by the leaders could be underway.

"Türkiye has chosen to chart an independent path and to assert more of its independence and influence in the region," says Prof Al Arian, adding that it is one of the reasons why "the US-Türkiye relations will have to be reset after the elections”.

"Erdogan leading for another five years means the US will have to accommodate Türkiye's security needs," Al Arian adds.

Earlier this week, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Türkiye's new top diplomat Hakan Fidan discussed numerous topics such as Sweden's bid to join NATO, Türkiye-Armenia and Azerbaijan-Armenia normalisation processes, F-16 purchase and modernisation, and the Ukrainian grain deal.

During the telephonic conversation, Blinken claimed that the US administration had not explicitly connected the F-16 sales and Sweden's membership bid.

Türkiye and the US administrations are being closely observed for their respective roles in shaping the future of NATO.

"I think we will see that the US and Türkiye will steadily improve their relations, and the first step from President Biden will be approving the F-16 sale to Türkiye," Bryza said.

The two allies navigate a multifaceted relationship concerning security concerns, defence needs, and their respective policies in the Middle East, particularly in northern Syria.

Despite Türkiye’s strong opposition to the presence of the YPG, the Syrian extension of the PKK terrorist organisation, in northern Syria, the US has allied with the group to fight against Daesh.

In a classic case of distinguishing between what they apparently consider ‘good terrorist and bad terrorist’, the US has provided military training and substantial military support to the YPG, claiming it was crucial in the fight against Daesh.

Despite Türkiye’s valid security concerns as a NATO ally, the US continues to support the YPG/PKK – listed as a terrorist organisation by Türkiye, the US, and the EU and responsible for the death of over 40,000 people, including women, children, and infants.

Need for Türkiye’s intermediacy

Irrespective of their geopolitics, one of the priorities for NATO allies, as well as many non-member countries, concerning Türkiye could be the continuation of its role in facilitating the Ukraine grain deal, which plays a pivotal role in preserving global food security.

Given another term of leadership under Erdogan, it is highly probable that Türkiye will persist in its crucial role as the guarantor of the initiative.

"The role of Türkiye in brokering the grain corridor agreement is something that countries worldwide, not just the West, are grateful for. They would like to see Türkiye continue playing that role," Bryza says.

"We need that Ukrainian grain to make it to the global markets, both to help Ukraine and to ensure food security worldwide, not to see famines, particularly in the developing countries."