What’s on the agenda for Türkiye and Germany as Erdogan meets Scholz?

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is set to meet German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to address a range of critical bilateral and global issues on the sidelines of the 79th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

Energy security and geopolitical developments are expected to take centre stage in the discussion as economic ties between the two countries continue to evolve, experts say.

Here’s what experts have to say about the meeting.

A pivotal economic partnership

Germany remains Türkiye's largest trading partner within the European Union.

"Türkiye's largest export market, which once accounted for 60 percent of trade and now stands at 40-45 percent, is the European Union. Germany plays the most significant role in this relationship," Professor Husamettin Inac, Head of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Kutahya Dumlupinar University, tells TRT World.

He emphasised the importance of the three million-strong Turkish diaspora in Germany, which acts as a bridge to strengthen economic ties.

However, the relationship between the two countries has its challenges.

"There is no official defence embargo by Germany on Türkiye, but the fact that equipment for the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, such as turbines, has been held up in German customs is likely to be raised by Erdogan during the meeting,” As Prof Dr Irfan Kaya Ulger, Head of the Department of International Relations at Kocaeli University's Faculty of Political Science, tells to TRT World.

This underscores the sensitive nature of defence and energy relations between the two nations.

In the context of the ongoing Ukraine War, Germany has been forced to reassess its economic priorities.

"Germany, under pressure from the United States, has suffered significant economic losses. For example, it was required to allocate 100 billion euros to its defence sector and stop purchasing cheap energy from Russia,” says Inac.

The sharp rise in energy prices and the impact of the war have compelled Berlin to seek diversification in its energy sources.

Türkiye's role as an energy transit hub, mainly through the Middle Corridor that connects Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and Europe, is expected to feature prominently in discussions, experts say.

"Germany's top priority now is to secure natural gas from regions like Turkmenistan, with Türkiye playing a critical role in this,” says Inac.

At the same time, Türkiye's rich reserves of rare elements, such as lithium and thorium, are increasingly becoming a strategic interest for Germany.

"Türkiye, which holds one of the world's largest reserves of rare elements, has shifted its focus from China to Europe for collaboration," says Inac.

Defence and diplomatic challenges

Despite strong economic ties, tensions between the two nations persist in the spheres of geopolitics and defence.

Complications such as the failure to deliver Eurofighter jets and issues surrounding the F-16s and F-35 programmes have created friction.

Germany's support for groups like the PKK and its proxies has further strained ties.

"The relationship is being affected by Germany's support for terrorist organisations such as FETO and PKK, which complicates efforts for deeper cooperation,” says Inac.

At the same time, the Turkish-EU talks on Ankara's accession to the union have stalled.

"While Türkiye's membership talks continue legally, they have come to a standstill in practice. The current agenda between Türkiye and the EU revolves around issues such as the economic support for refugees, updating the Customs Union, and visa facilitation rather than full membership,” says Kocaeli University’s Ulger.

The visa issue, in particular, remains complex as deadlock remains on six out of the 72 criteria for visa liberalisation.

However, discussions on granting visa facilitation to specific professional groups, such as truck drivers, businesspeople, and academics, are expected to surface in the meeting.

External influences also shape Germany's foreign policy.

"It's important to recognise that while Germany is an economic powerhouse, it doesn't operate independently. The US largely influences its foreign policy, energy, and trade decisions," Inac pointed out, highlighting the presence of 40,000 American troops at Ramstein Air Base.

Geopolitical landscape

As Erdogan and Scholz prepare for their meeting, they will likely assess their roles in a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment.

Türkiye's growing influence as a critical energy transit hub, its strategic importance in the Middle East, and its balanced foreign policy between East and West are expected to be key discussion points.

"The Ukraine War and the Israel-Palestine conflict are expected to be significant topics. Türkiye, as the only NATO country maintaining direct contact with Putin, has not joined the sanctions, which, although widely criticised, has been tacitly accepted,” says Ulger.

“Nevertheless, Türkiye continues to support Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including Crimea."

Scholz will likely underscore Türkiye's potential role as a mediator and facilitator in peace negotiations.

At the same time, Erdogan is expected to call for pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to halt aggression against Palestinians.

In this context, the conflict between Israel and Palestine will likely feature heavily in Erdogan's discussions with Scholz, as the Turkish president has consistently emphasised the plight of the Palestinian people.

"Erdogan's call for an end to Israeli aggression and his advocacy for Palestinian rights will undoubtedly be brought up in the meeting,” says Ulger.

Migration is another topic expected to feature prominently in the talks.

The 2016 EU-Türkiye refugee agreement, designed to curb irregular migration, has faced numerous challenges.

"The EU, especially Germany, has not fully met the economic commitments outlined in the 2016 agreement,” says Inanc, adding that it's unlikely that the agreement will be renewed under the same terms.