Democratic rebellion against Biden could backfire, says top historian

Allan Lichtman, the US historian famed for his uncanny accuracy in predicting nine out of the last ten presidential elections, has sounded a dire warning for the Democratic Party: replacing President Joe Biden could throw the party into a complete disarray.

Despite no strong indication that Democratic delegates might seek an alternative candidate for the upcoming November election, Shannon Bream, host of "Fox News Sunday," raised the question of what obligations delegates have if President Biden insists on remaining on the ticket.

Lichtman, a professor at American University, highlighted that while delegates technically have the power to replace Biden, historical precedent shows such a move would result in a disastrous convention battle.

His remarks come as some Democrats have called for Biden to withdraw from the 2024 race following a rocky debate performance against former president Donald Trump.

This year, Biden has overwhelmingly won Democratic primaries across all 50 states, securing a vast number of delegates ahead of the party's convention next month.

Biden holds advantage

Using a system based on 13 historical factors, Lichtman has almost flawlessly predicted presidential election results over the past 50 years, missing only the 2000 election.

These factors encompass politics, performance, and candidate personality.

According to Lichtman, the incumbent party must lose six of these "keys" to be ousted from the White House.

Factors considered include whether the candidate is an incumbent president, the economic situation, and the presence of third-party contenders.

However, Lichtman has previously argued that debate performance is not among the factors influencing election results.

He noted that Biden currently holds an advantage by securing two of the 13 keys: being the incumbent president and facing no significant party contest this year.

Lichtman warned that replacing Biden could recreate the conditions that led to Donald Trump's election in 2016 — an open seat with no incumbent and a contentious party contest.

Despite calls from a few Democratic lawmakers for him to step aside, Biden has vowed to stay in the 2024 race. US president told his party members on Monday that he was committed to "running this race to the end" and that it was time for conversations about changing nominees to stop.