Harris or Trump: Fate of US election rests on 'just 200,000 voters'

There may be roughly 244 million Americans who are eligible to vote in 2024, but only 150,000 to 200,000 voters (that's just 0.08 percent of eligible voters) will now decide whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be heading to the White House.

"The US presidency has come down to a small handful of voters in few swing states. As I argue it, 150,000 to 200,000 swing voters in a few swing counties in a few swing states will decide the next president of the United States," David Schultz, who teaches political science and legal studies at Hamline University and is editor of Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter, told TRT World, in an exclusive interview.

Schultz, who has authored more than 45 books on US politics, election law, and the media and politics, said that as America enters the final few weeks of the election "what remains true is the stability of the electorate."

"Year ago, Trump and Biden were locked in a close race according to the polls. This was true until the first presidential debate in June and for a brief period, it looked like Trump opened up a lead. The Biden left and Harris replaced him. Since then, despite assassination attempts, debates, national conventions, and the fading of Robert Kennedy, Jr. the polls remain close. America is so polarised that there are few people who are undecided," he said.

Schultz added: "The reality is that the question now is who will show up to vote."

On Monday, US Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump held rival gatherings in the pivotal swing state of Pennsylvania to make their final pitches to voters in an exceptionally tight race just weeks until Election Day, November 5.

Schultz said Harris needs to get a lot of young people, under the age of 30, to vote.

"These voters did not like Biden or Trump but appear to like Harris. It is possible these voters are not appearing in the polls," the expert said.

According to Schultz, Harris also needs female voters to show how and she is doing well in moving them to her side.

"Women are now 54 percent of the electorate. It is possible that the polls are not capturing how motivated female and young voters are in the swing states," he said.

Third-party candidates

Democrats has allowed this election to be greatly impacted by their unwavering support for Israel's war on besieged Gaza.

The uncommitted movement in America — a group of pro-Palestine, anti-war campaigners and voters which emerged during the 2024 Democratic primary and boasts more than 500,000 anti-war voters — has been pressuring Democrats and Harris to place Israel under weapons embargo and end its war on the tiny Palestinian enclave but without any success so far.

As it appears, this pro-Israel policy on Gaza could, however, could tell on the outcome of US elections and especially since third-party candidates seem to have expanded their voter base, eating into counties or states that were once Democratic bastions.

With the latest polls finding no clear leader in the presidential race, Schultz said the emergence of the third-party contenders, for example Jill Stein, could complicate chances for Harris or Trump in the swing states.

"A third-party candidate may sway enough votes in one or two swing states to affect the election. Capturing just a few thousand voters, or if they decide not to vote, they can impact the election," the expert said.

According to Schultz, Michigan being a swing state with the highest density of Arab-Americans in the US, is unlikely to vote for Trump, "but a decision not vote or vote for a third party could alter the results of the election in that state."