How did the concept of swing states emerge in US elections?

Washington, DC — With the 2024 US presidential election less than two weeks away, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race, nationally, but the outcome of the US presidency ultimately hinges on the voters from just seven swing states, not all 50.

In swing states, both contestants have a fair chance of victory. But how did the concept of swing states in US elections come into play?

"It is the product of several different features," David Schultz, who teaches political science and legal studies at Hamline University, told TRT World, in an exclusive interview.

He says the swing states are the product of the way Americans select the US president.

"We do not have a direct popular vote for the president. Instead, the president is picked by the Electoral College. The constitution gives each of the 50 states a certain number of electors whose votes are cast to pick the president, and to become president, one must win a majority of the electoral votes, which is now 270 electoral votes," says Schultz, who is also the co-editor of "Presidential Swing States: Why Only Ten Matter", a book that answers why some states swing in presidential elections.

In 48 out of the 50 states, he says, electoral votes are allocated in a winner-take-all fashion based upon the popular vote within a state.

"By winner take all we mean whoever wins the most popular vote in that state wins all the electoral votes."

Schultz says because of intense political polarisation and party loyalty, Democrats overwhelmingly vote for Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly vote for Republicans, adding there are very few undecided voters, or what are known as swing voters.

Safe states and electoral votes

Across the US, because some states have more Democrats or Republicans, Schultz says what we have increasingly seen since the 1980s is that approximately 40 to now maybe 45 states are certain to vote for the Democrat or the Republican in the presidential election.

Then there are the safe states, such as New York and California for the Democrats, or Texas and Oklahoma for the Republicans.

"These states are not enough to win the presidency. The Democrats have a certain number of safe states and electoral votes. Republicans have a certain number of safe states and electoral votes," the expert says.

In the 2024 election, according to Schultz, there are only about six or so states that are truly in play — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and perhaps Nevada and North Carolina.

"The presidency comes down to a small handful of voters in these few swing states. As I argue it, 150,000 to 200,000 swing voters in a few swing counties in a few swing states will decide the next president of the United States," he says.

Over time, according to Schultz, the number of swing states has changed.

"We had more states in play a half century ago. But polarisation has really reduced the number of states in play," he argues.

Swing states in America have evolved over time.

At one point, he says, states such as Missouri, Florida, and Ohio were swing states but changes in demographics, changes in population and political attitudes in those states compared to the overall political attitudes in America have changed, thus producing different swing states.

Characteristics of a swing state

According to Schultz, a swing state has at least two characteristics:

One is that it has an even balance of Democrats and Republicans, leaving it up to either a few numbers of swing voters to decide what's going to happen in that state. It depends on which party is able to better mobilise its supporters.

Additionally, a swing state is a state whose average or median voter is to the right of where the Democrats are nationally and to the left of where the Republican Party is nationally.

"This is where the state of Wisconsin is," Schultz says, adding "Wisconsin was a reliably Democratic state 25 or more years ago, but it has clearly shifted to where it has become a swing state.

"It is to the right of where the Democrats are nationally, to the left of where the Republicans are nationally," he explains.

Schultz notes it is a product of both shifting politics at the national level and changes domestically in Wisconsin, where we have a different mix in the state of, for example, people with college degrees versus without college degrees, compared to what we had a quarter century ago.

"Or we see different combinations or mixtures of young versus old people, or across different generations. All this produces shifts in politics over time."

Wisconsin certainly has become one of the most important swing states in the US. In the last two presidential elections, in 2016 and in 2020, the winner was decided by an incredibly small number of votes.

In fact Trump lost Wisconsin by just under 21,000 votes in 2020. Because of the Covid-19 pandemic, the battleground state saw unprecedented early and absentee voting.

"Look to see Wisconsin remaining a very important swing state in 2024," Schultz argues.

Texas, a potential swing state?

He says, at one point, Ohio and Florida were great swing states but their politics and demographics have shifted, putting them much more firmly on the Republican side.

Some Democrats think that perhaps Texas is a potential swing state, although that is not likely in 2024 but perhaps in four or eight years, he says.

As the populations shift even more in Texas, according to Schultz, it might become more in play, much in the same way that over time, Arizona and Georgia have shifted because of changes in population due to immigration, percentages of population with young people, or those who are college educated.

Schultz says there's always been some states that have been swing states.

"Missouri, back for 100 years, throughout the entire 20th century, was swing. In the 19th century, the state of Maine was an important swing state, Ohio was a classically important swing state," he adds.

But it really is in the last 40, if not maybe only 20 years, that the number of swing states has reduced to such a small number now, and that is clearly a product of the political polarisation that we see in the US, Schultz argues.

"America is so polarised that there are few people who are undecided. The reality is that the question now is who will show up to vote," he says.