Trump indicted again: What does it mean for his White House ambitions?

Donald Trump has been charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States and other crimes related to his efforts to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss.

The newest charges — Trump's third criminal indictment this year — also include conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, the congressional certification of President Joe Biden's victory.

The federal indictment adds new details to what was already known about his actions, and those of his key allies, in the weeks leading up to the deadly January 6, 2021 riot.

It describes how Trump repeatedly told supporters and others that he had won the election, despite knowing that was false, and how he tried to persuade state officials, his own vice president, and finally, Congress to overturn the legitimate results.

US prosecutor Jack Smith, a former war crimes prosecutor at the Hague, said the January 6 attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters was "an unprecedented assault on the seat of American democracy".

"It was fueled by lies," Smith told reporters in brief remarks.

"Lies by the defendant targeted at obstructing a bedrock function of the US government — the nation's process of collecting, counting and certifying the results of the presidential election."

Even as he faces a slew of charges against him, Trump is also making a bid to return to the White House as a candidate of the Republican Party. According to the latest survey, he is seen as the favourite to win the party nomination in 2024.

The criminal charges filed in court against Trump would have already meant an end to the aspirations of any other politician. But he is Donald Trump, and his campaign had managed to frame the charges against him as part of an effort to persecute him.

"This will rally his supporters to his talking points - about how the establishment and the 'deep state' are against him and against them," Stu Rothenberg, a non-partisan political analyst, told Reuters news agency before the indictment was handed down.

Here's what happens next.

When will Trump appear in court?

Trump is set to make his first court appearance on Thursday, when prosecutors will outline the charges against him and a judge will set his bail conditions. He might enter a plea at that time, but his arraignment could also come at a later date.

A judge will then set a schedule for pre-trial motions and discovery, the months-long process when prosecutors hand over documents and other evidence to defence lawyers.

Trump’s attorneys will likely file a motion to dismiss in the coming months, but those are rarely granted in criminal cases. Both sides are also likely to file motions seeking to shape what evidence and legal arguments will be permitted at trial.

How does the case affect Trump's campaign?

It doesn't, from a practical standpoint. Nothing prevents criminal defendants from campaigning or taking office after they are convicted.

The political impact is less clear. Trump has shown a unique ability to weather scandals that would sink most politicians, and two previous indictments did nothing to diminish his commanding lead in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Trump has made the indictments a central plank of his campaign platform, portraying himself as the target of a biased justice system, the first former president in US history to face criminal charges.

Minutes before the indictment was announced, Trump called it "fake" on his Truth Social media platform.

A Trump campaign statement later said: "President Trump has always followed the law and the Constitution, with advice from many highly accomplished attorneys."

The statement likened his indictments this year to "Nazi Germany in the 1930s."

If he wins the Republican nomination, Trump, 77, would face off against Democratic President Joe Biden, 80, in the November 2024 election. Biden defeated Trump in 2020, but he has only a razor-thin edge in polls of a hypothetical match-up with Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Strategists said that while the indictments could help Trump solidify support within his base and win the Republican nomination, his ability to capitalise on them may be more limited in next year's general election when he will have to win over more sceptical moderate Republicans and independents.

In a July Reuters/Ipsos poll, 37 percent of independents said the criminal cases against Trump made them less likely to vote for him for president, compared to 8 percent who said they were more likely to do so.

Underscoring the potential closeness of the November 2024 general election, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Biden leading Trump 37 percent to 35 percent in a hypothetical match-up, with the remaining 28 percent saying they were not sure of their choice or whether they would vote for someone else or no one at all.

When will the trial happen?

That is unclear, but it would likely be many months away. A judge will set an initial trial date, but those are typically pushed back as both sides wrangle over legal issues and review evidence. Trump could also appeal pretrial rulings by a judge, which would further slow down the case.

The indictments are piling up - three so far this year. And so are the court dates.

His New York state criminal trial involving a hush money payment to a adult film actress is due to start on March 25, 2024, and his Florida trial in a federal classified documents case is scheduled to begin on May 20.

Both would take place just months before the November election. So might a third trial in this latest case centred on his failed bid to overturn his 2020 election defeat to Democrat Joe Biden.

The sheer number of investigations, criminal cases and lawsuits brought against Trump are unprecedented for a former president.

The same could be said for the tens of millions of dollars in legal fees paid out to attorneys representing him and his allies, straining the finances of his campaign. An Associated Press Analysis of recent fundraising disclosures shows Trump’s political committees have paid out at least $59.2 million to more than 100 lawyers and law firms since January 2021.

The threat posed by the colossal drain of resources has led Trump’s allies to establish a new legal defense fund, the Patriot Legal Defense Fund.

On Monday, it was reported that because of the mounting legal fees, Trump has been forced to recall from a campaign fund called Super PAC at least $60 million originally intended for television advertising for the Republican presidential primaries starting in January 2024.

According to a filing before the Federal Election Commission (FEC), Trump's political action committee, Save America, said that it only had less than $4m cash on hand, having paid tens of millions of dollars in legal fees for the former president and associates and that it wants the Super PAC to revert $60 million to the Save America organisation.

The shift in the millions of dollars in funding is now raising legal questions as well.

Former FEC lawyer Adav Noti, who now serves as legal director for the Campaign Legal Center watchdog group, told The Guardian that calling the transfer a refund does not change the "fundamental illegality" of the action.

“For the Super Pac and the Trump Pac to be sending tens of millions dollars back and forth depending upon who needs the money more strongly suggests unlawful financial coordination,” he said.