Trump wins Republican race in frigid Iowa — US media

Republican frontrunner Donald Trump has earned his widely-expected victory in the Iowa caucuses — the first vote in the 2024 presidential race — US media projections showed.

Trump's win in Iowa caucuses on Monday is a crucial victory at the outset of the Republican primary that reinforces the former president's bond with his party’s voters even as he faces extraordinary legal challenges that could complicate his bid to return to the White House.

The magnitude of Trump's success is still coming into focus, but the former president's supporters endured a historic and life-threatening cold snap to participate in caucus meetings that unfolded in schools, churches and community centers across the state.

The results are just the first in what will be a months-long effort for Trump to secure the GOP nomination a third consecutive time. But it sends an unmistakable message to the Republican Party that the nomination is Trump's to lose and crystalises the challenge facing his GOP opponents.

The Iowa caucuses began at 8 pm EST on Monday night. Caucus participants gathered inside more than 750 schools, churches and community centres to debate their options, in some cases for hours, before casting secret ballots.

While Trump projected confidence, his onetime chief rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, was fighting for his political survival in a make-or-break race for second place.

Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, the only woman in the race, stands in DeSantis' way. The two have competed aggressively in recent weeks to emerge as the clear alternative to the former president.

"For me, it’s really about character," said Darla De Haan, a psychotherapist from Pella, explaining why she is leaning toward Haley. "I want to see people who have integrity, who keep their word. … I kind of get a sense when you’re around someone if they’re going to do what they say."

Hans Rudin, a 49-year-old community college adviser from Council Bluffs, said he has supported Trump in the past but is now aligned with DeSantis: "I absolutely love a lot of the things [Trump] did, but his personality is just kind of getting in his way."

Polls suggest Trump entered on Monday with a massive lead in Iowa as Haley and DeSantis duel for a distant second because of voters such as Kathy DeAngelo.

"Trump is a Christian. He’s trustworthy. He believes in America. And he believes in freedom," said DeAngelo, a 71-year-old retired hospital administrative employee who came to see the ex-president on Sunday in sub-zero weather. "He’s the only one."

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson are also on the ballot in Iowa, as is former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who suspended his campaign last week.

Trump's strength

After Iowa, the Republican primary shifts to New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina over the coming weeks before moving into the rest of the country this spring.

The ultimate nominee won't be confirmed until the party's national convention in July, but with big wins in the opening contests, Trump will be difficult to stop.

Trump's political strength heading into the Iowa caucuses, which come 426 days after he launched his 2024 campaign, tells a remarkable story of a Republican Party unwilling or unable to move on from him.

He lost to Democratic President Joe Biden in 2020 after fuelling near-constant chaos while in the White House, culminating with his supporters carrying out a deadly attack on the US Capitol.

In total, he faces 91 felony charges across four criminal cases, including two indictments for his efforts to overturn the election and a third indictment for keeping classified documents in his Florida home.

In recent weeks, Trump has increasingly echoed authoritarian leaders and framed his campaign as one of retribution. He has spoken openly about using the power of government to pursue his political enemies.

His campaign trotted out some high-profile conservative populists to greet Iowans in Fort Dodge.

"I want to tell you how much the world is depending on Iowa tonight," said Kari Lake, who is running for the Senate in Arizona.

The final Des Moines Register/NBC News poll before the caucuses found Trump maintaining a formidable lead, supported by nearly half of likely caucusgoers, compared with 20 percent for Haley and 16 percent for DeSantis, who are in a close battle for second.

Trump is also viewed more favourably than the other top contenders by likely caucusgoers, at 69 percent compared with 58 percent for DeSantis and 48 percent for Haley.

Dangerous weather

Trump predicted he would set a modern-day Republican caucus record with a margin-of-victory exceeding the nearly 13 percentage point victory that Bob Dole earned in 1988.

Still, Trump played down expectations that he would draw a majority of the total vote.

The temperature in parts of Iowa on Monday could dip as low as minus 26 degrees Celsius, while snow drifts from Friday's blizzard still make travel hazardous across the state.

Forecasters warned that "dangerously cold wind chills" as low as 42 degrees below zero Celsius were possible through noon on Tuesday.

The conditions, according to the National Weather Service, could lead to "frostbite and hypothermia in a matter of minutes if not properly dressed for the conditions."

The winter weather, intimidating even for Iowa, will make an already unrepresentative process even less representative. Only a tiny portion of the participants will be voters of colour, given Iowa's overwhelmingly white population, a fact that helped persuade Democrats to shift their opening primary contest to South Carolina this year.