Trump’s return revives fears of infamous Muslim travel ban

Donald Trump’s election victory in the US has elicited fear and mixed reactions in some predominantly Muslim African countries that he imposed travel restrictions on during his first presidency.

Trump signed an executive order in 2017 banning refugees and travelers from Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen from entering the US for 90 days.

Iraq was also included but was later dropped following sharp criticism from the Iraqi government and promises of improved vetting of Iraqi citizens in collaboration with the Iraqi government.

He also blocked the issuance of visas that could lead to permanent re sidency in the US for citizens from Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria, along with Eritrea, Kyrgyzstan and Myanmar, where Muslim minority refugees were fleeing persecution.

Tanzania and Sudan, which also have sizable Muslim populations, were made ineligible to apply and participate in the US diversity lottery visa programme that allows up to 50,000 people across the world to get US green cards, giving them access to work and residency in the United States.

Mohamed Husein Gaas, director of the Raad Peace Research Institute, told Anadolu that Trump’s election victory has evoked mixed reactions among some of these countries.

“The reaction across Somalia and other affected African countries has been a mix of concern and apprehension. Many individuals recall the disruptive effects of the travel restrictions on families, businesses and diplomatic relations,” Gaas said in an interview.

He said the travel ban created barriers for family reunification, limited educational and professional opportunities and strained bilateral ties.

“While some remain hopeful that lessons have been learned and such measures will not be reinstated, others are wary, viewing his ( Trump’s) potential return as a signal of renewed unpredictability in US-Africa relations,” he added.

Gaas said public sentiment is shaped largely by the perception that the restrictions unfairly targeted specific nations and communities.

Asked if he thinks Trump could reintroduce the travel restrictions, Gaas said there is a strong possibility that he might revisit or expand the restrictions, given his previous rationale for imposing them.

“During his first presidency, these measures were justified on security grounds, with an emphasis on addressing what he termed as ‘national security risks.’ If similar policy priorities resurface, countries that were previously affected could again find themselves under scrutiny,” he said.

Gaas noted, however, that imposing these restrictions will depend on the new administration's overall foreign policy strategy and its alignment with domestic political considerations.

“Renewed restrictions would likely provoke significant backlash and complicate US efforts to engage constructively with these nations,” he noted.

A more mature Trump?

Anwar Abdifatah Bashir, executive director of the East African Institute for Peace and Governance, believes Trump is more politically mature now and more aware than in his first term in office.

“Trump got huge support from the Muslim and Black communities in the US. As such, he may change his initial ban,” Bashir told Anadolu.

He said he is hopeful that Trump will not reimpose restrictions, but if security issues arise posing a threat to the US, then he could possibly reintroduce the ban.

Tanzanian political analyst Denis Konga told Anadolu that it is hard to predict whether Trump will reinstate the immigration travel ban on his country and others on the continent.

“It’s unfortunate that we cannot have a direct answer on what is going to happen, but there are mixed reactions to his election victory in Tanzania. Always African countries have been favored when the presidency is under the Democrats,” he said.

He said given Trump’s unpredictability, he may reintroduce travel restrictions or visa limitations for immigrants from Tanzania or he may not.

A Nigerian expert who preferred to speak on condition of anonymity said Trump’s presidency will be frightening for not just Muslim majority countries but for a large part of the world.

‘‘We are already on tenterhooks here in Nigeria. We don’t know what new travel restrictions he will impose on us this time,” he said.

'Deprioritised Africa'

During his first presidency, Trump did not show much interest in Africa, but could this change in his second presidency?

Gaas believes it is unlikely that Trump’s overall view on Africa will shift significantly, given his limited engagement with the continent during his first presidency.

“His administration largely deprioritised Africa, focusing instead on great-power competition with China and Russia,” he noted.

He said Trump’s approach may remain transactional, prioritising US economic and security interests over fostering long-term partnerships. However, growing geopolitical competition in Africa coupled with the continent's rising strategic importance could force a more pragmatic engagement.

Gaas said whether this results in meaningful change will depend on the advisors shaping Trump’s foreign policy agenda.

Rashweat Mukundu, Africa adviser at International Media Support (IMS), a non-profit organisation, agreed that Trump did not show much interest in Africa and the little he showed was negative.

‘‘I think Africa had a negative experience with Trump in his first term. I think the negativity arose from his lack of interest in African affairs, lack of interest in developing stronger diplomatic and economic relations with Africa,’’ he said.

Mukundu said that under a Trump presidency, there is fear that US-Africa relations will be strained, adding ties will be cold and there would not be much interaction.