Who will control the US Congress?

The presidential election is not the only election that is taking place in the US right now.

Also at stake is control of Congress, the bicameral legislature of the US federal government consisting of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Americans are voting for 435 House seats. House control goes to the party that wins a total of 218 or more seats. Currently, the Republican Party controls the lower house with 220 seats against 212 of the Democratic Party.

Simultaneously, 34 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for grabs in this electoral cycle. The party with 51 or more seats controls the upper chamber of the federal US legislature. In the not-so-rare case of a 50-50 split, Senate control goes to the party of the vice president.

The Democratic Party currently controls the Senate with 51 seats against 49 seats held by Republican Party senators.

The outcome of House and Senate polls will play an important role in determining how easily the winner of the presidential contest will govern until the 2026 Congressional elections.

In addition, Congress can also play a role in upholding the American tradition of peacefully transferring presidential power. Four years ago, Donald Trump asked his supporters to “fight like hell” at the Capitol. Many Republicans in Congress voted to block Joe Biden’s election.

Congress will again be called upon to certify the results of the presidential election in 2025.

Who’ll control Congress?

A report by news agency Reuters quoted nonpartisan analysts as saying that Republicans “stand a good chance” of taking back the Senate.

But Republicans could also lose their grip on the House, where Democrats only need to pick up four seats to take back control of the 435-seat chamber.

Analysts expect Republicans to snatch control of the Senate in 2024 mainly because Democrats are clamouring to defend seven seats that are in deeply conservative or swing states – constituencies that are likely to lean towards Trump-backed candidates.

The main Senate races to watch are in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

As for the House of Representatives, analysts say each of the two parties has at least 200 “safe” seats.

“I think the race for Congress is effectively tied. This is on a knife's edge,” said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC.

Republicans increasingly shifted their focus on contesting about 35 House districts ahead of the November 5 elections, with major defensive races in and around Los Angeles, New York City, Arizona and Nebraska among others.