Will Trump's foreign policy mark break from neocon agenda?

Washington, DC — US President-elect Donald Trump's return to the White House could look starkly different from his first term in office, experts say, with the era of hard-edged neoconservatives and architects of muscular interventionism — who once seemed indispensable to the Trump orbit — now gone.

Two noted foreign policy specialists told TRT World that a quieter revolution appears under way in Washington, DC, as Trump pivots towards an anti-war, hands-off approach abroad, hinting that the days of American entanglements may be winding down.

"The most interesting development from the Trump entourage has been his distancing from the neoconservative group of foreign policy experts," David N Gibbs, a professor of history at the University of Arizona who has watched this transformation with intrigue, tells TRT World.

"In his first term, the neocons were hyper-militaristic and interventionist, driving much of the administration's global stance. Now, Trump appears to be moving away from the neocon crowd."

The changes in personnel tell the story.

Former CIA Director Mike Pompeo, who served as Trump's high-profile secretary of state, has been quietly sidelined, his once-dominant voice absent from Trump's plans.

Nikki Haley, Trump's former UN ambassador known for her hawkish stance, is similarly out of the picture.

Earlier this year she controversially wrote "Finish Them!" on an Israeli artillery shell (intended for bombing Gaza) during a visit to Israel, generating widespread ridicule for its brazenness and insensitivity.

Similarly, Senator Tom Cotton, a key figure often seen as a natural successor to the new neoconservative mantle, won't be taking any appointments.

Gibbs views these shifts as significant.

"This would be in line with Trump's 'America First' ideology. It could also mean a reduced role for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), which many Republicans see with increasing scepticism."

Under Trump's America First agenda, top figures like Stephen Miller (tapped as deputy chief of policy) and Tom Homan (set to oversee border control) are set to tighten immigration policies, driving border control and deportation efforts.

Experts note that the president-elect is moving towards a more anti-interventionist wing of the Republican party, associated with Vice President-elect JD Vance and former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard.

Neocons' Democratic embrace

In fact, Trump's actions appear to have driven neoconservative voices into an unusual alliance with the Democratic Party.

"Some of the leading neocons have become associated with the Biden-Harris administration and the Harris campaign," Gibbs notes.

"Dick Cheney and his daughter Liz, both central figures in the neoconservative movement, endorsed Kamala Harris. We're also seeing former CIA officials joining the Democrats, including newly elected Senator Elissa Slotkin from Michigan."

Slotkin has repeatedly sparred with her fellow Democratic colleague Rashida Tlaib over Israel's genocidal war on Gaza.

For Trita Parsi, an acclaimed author and executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, Trump's second term could be defined by a battle for influence within his own administration.

"The anti-war, anti-neocon faction surrounding Trump is much stronger than it was in 2016. They are fighting to keep foreign policy hawks out of key roles in his administration," Parsi tells TRT World.

How Trump handles Iran may be the ultimate test, he says.

"Ultimately, Trump wants a deal with Iran," Parsi explains. "But if he brings in neoconservatives who want escalation over negotiation, we could see a repeat of the first term’s aggressive posture. In that scenario, we’re looking at a potentially a dangerous confrontation."

For Gibbs, the heart of the matter is the potential for disengagement from global conflicts like the Ukraine war, a cause Trump may consider unwinnable.

"We might even see Trump ease sanctions on Russia," says Gibbs, "sanctions that have done little to blunt Russia's military capability but have proven costly to American consumers."

Trump's policy shift, however, does not signal a sweeping transformation uniformly.

"For the Middle East," says Gibbs, "it is unlikely there will be any substantial shift in US policy."