What will the next US president inherit - a divided America?

As the early projections for the 2024 US presidential election have started to appear in news media, Americans are divided on a range of issues and whoever will lead them next – Donald Trump or Kamala Harris – the country is heading toward an unchartered territory.

From a growing social discord to economic disillusionment to offshore entanglements, the new US president’s approach towards fixing the country’s domestic and foreign policy problems will have a cascading effect, impacting countries as far as the Middle East and Europe.

Sandip Ghose, an India-based US foreign policy analyst, says that Washington has intensified global divisions due to inherent contradictions in its domestic policymaking, which ultimately reflect in the country’s conduct in the rest of the world.

“Polarisation today is a reality worldwide. Much of it, I would say, stems from the American so-called democratic liberal ecosystem, which dominates global discourse and deeply penetrates various societies,” Ghose tells TRT World.

The feeling of entrapment is palpable amongst a large number of Americans in light of racial inequality, culture wars and eroding trust in public institutions, creating echo chambers that feed polarisation, Ghose adds.

Too much complicity

Regional conflicts such as the one between Russia and Ukraine have divided the American public, with US presidential candidate Trump campaigning to limit American involvement in offshore wars and bringing their soldiers home.

In Ukraine, while substantial funds have been poured into countering Russia, Trump and much of his Republican base have been vocal critics of Democrats-led Washington for draining US finances at the cost of the country’s welfare.

Meanwhile, the US's unyielding support for Israel in its genocidal war on Gaza has ignited significant backlash from the international community, taking the shine off America’s carefully cultivated image of being the torchbearer of human rights. A large number of Americans have begun to view the US as complicit in Israel’s war crimes in Gaza.

Since October 7 last year, the US has spent at least $22.76 billion on military aid to Israel and related regional operations, including $4.86 billion specifically for the US operations in the area.

The US military presence has expanded from 34,000 to 50,000 personnel across 19 Middle East locations, including warships and aircraft.

The continued military and financial backing for Israel by Washington and its officials constitutes “conspiracy to commit genocide” and “complicity in genocide” under Article 3 of the 1948 Genocide Convention.

Nicaragua's lawsuit against Germany at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for its involvement in Israel’s genocide in Gaza and other Palestinian territories sets a precedent: nations that contribute to or enable genocide can now be held accountable in international courts.

Several analysts suggest a potential shift in US foreign policy - if Trump wins the election - might lead to limited American involvement in foreign wars and help calm nerves at home.

Ghose suggests that if the Democrats were to win, Kamala Harris would likely serve as a figurehead president, largely guided by Barack Obama and the broader Democratic establishment.

“I don’t foresee any major policy changes; in fact, they will likely continue the current approach, which, under both the Biden and Obama administrations, hasn’t contributed to peace—whether in the Middle East or other regions.”

On the other hand, if the Republicans return to power, Ghose believes the US would take a different approach that may lead to de-escalation in places like Ukraine and Gaza.

“This wouldn’t necessarily imply a drastically different philosophy, but it might lead to a more balanced and pragmatic approach,” he says.

Economic strains

Inflation in the US remains high, squeezing household budgets, while wage stagnation and a widening wealth gap exacerbate income inequality and class divide.

Ghose argues that “economic growth and tackling unemployment” will be essential for the next administration, as many middle- and low-income Americans feel increasingly shut out of economic prosperity.

“If the American economy strengthens, it would help restore balance between the US and China and create a level playing field for other countries.”