Baba UmarWashington DC — Hours before record early voting in the 2026 midterm elections ended in Texas state, Senator Ted Cruz sounded the alarm.
On his podcast, Cruz, one of the top Trump allies, became the most prominent Republican to publicly warn that the Grand Old Party (or GOP) could face major losses in the US state.
He cautioned Texas is "excruciatingly close", "we could lose Texas", and Republicans "could lose every single statewide race in Texas" – including the Senate contest between Republican Ken Paxton — who is endorsed by US President Donald Trump — and Democrat James Talarico, as well as the gubernatorial race involving Greg Abbott.
Cruz, who has represented Texas in the Senate since 2013, did not stop there.
Urging turnout on election day, he described a potential "bloodbath" in which Republicans could lose as many as eight Senate seats nationally if Democratic turnout is high and Republican voters stay at home.
The warning from Cruz came less than four days from the November 3 election and follows a flurry of alarming polls for Republican candidates and similar observations by other Republicans or Trump allies such as former White House adviser Steve Bannon, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, and State Representative Briscoe Cain, who remarked in early October that "if the election were held tomorrow, all statewide races go blue".
The midterm elections present a crucial test for Texas Republicans, offering Democrats their best opportunity in decades to win a key Senate seat.
No Democrat has won statewide office in in the Lone Star State since 1994. That’s when Talarico was in kindergarten.
Thirty-two years later, Talarico, 37, is running neck and neck with Republican Attorney General Paxton, according to multiple polls, in what is being billed as the most expensive US Senate race in the country, with advertising spending in the contest already exceeding $563 million.
Despite troubling polling numbers for the GOP, Republican strategists such as Beau Rothschild remain optimistic that the crown jewel of the Republican national base will stay red in the November 3 elections.
"I have always been skeptical of polling, particularly in Texas. While I believe this race is competitive, I still expect Ken Paxton to win. That said, I anticipate a much closer race than his campaign would prefer," Rothschild tells TRT World.
"Texas remains a Republican state, but Republicans cannot afford to take anything for granted, particularly in the current political environment."
The 2026 US midterm elections will determine the balance of power in Congress, as Democrats seek control of both chambers to challenge President Trump's legislative agenda.
Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers of the Congress, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House of Representatives.
All 435 House seats, contested every two years, are on the ballot alongside 35 Senate seats carrying six-year terms.
History shows that the president's party often loses political power in midterm elections. The Democrats must gain four additional seats and retain key battleground states such as Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire to secure a majority.
Why Democrats are targeting the Texas is because public backlash against rising inflation, tensions surrounding US war on Iran, and Republican immigration policies —combined with a strong Democratic candidate — have created the best opportunity for them to win the seat.
Rothschild says inflation and the rising cost of living are challenges facing Republican candidates across the country and that voters are feeling the economic pressure "which is certainly creating political headwinds."
"However, Democrats have yet to articulate a convincing or responsible plan to address these challenges. Instead, much of their strategy appears focused on voter dissatisfaction with President Trump. While that approach may resonate in certain parts of the country, I do not believe it will be enough to win statewide in Texas," he argues.
Diverse urban centres and rural voters
Texas has grown substantially more diverse over recent decades, creating new electoral opportunities for Democrats.
Suburbs around Dallas, Houston, and Austin are rapidly diversifying, with growing minority populations flipping local offices and narrowing Republican margins.
Texas's rural areas, however, remain predominantly white and consistently deliver substantial support to conservative candidates.
"Voter turnout will be absolutely critical, particularly in the suburbs and rural communities that have historically been essential to Republican victories in Texas," says the Republican strategist Rothschild.
What is encouraging for Republicans, he says, is that early voting numbers suggest stronger participation in several of these key areas compared to previous elections.
"Republicans appear to be making a more concerted effort to turn out their voters early, which could prove decisive in a close race."
Ultimately, Rothschild says, the key will be maintaining strong rural turnout while remaining competitive in the suburbs, where independent and swing voters could determine the margin of victory.
Democrats, meanwhile, point to several key drivers behind their optimism in Texas.
They say the massive population growth, which they claim has heavily diluted the traditional Republican advantage, Trump's immigration policies in an area where Hispanic and Latino residents comprise over 40 percent of the total population, discontent over rising costs of living and Talarico's performance combine to make the Senate seat flippable.
"Texas is changing demographically. During Covid there were people moving in from other parts of the country, including California. Those people bring their politics in with them. Also, Trump did surprisingly well in 2024 with Hispanic voters all the polling show that he has lost a lot of that support partly for the same reasons as other Americans, the economy but also many Hispanics think the Trump immigration policies have gone overboard," Chris Lapetina, a Democratic strategist tells TRT World.
Lapetina says if the Democrats take power, a lot of their legislative effort will be helping Americans who can’t afford healthcare get healthcare.
"Trump cut off federal funding to millions of Americans who couldn’t afford healthcare. And the Democrats will try to get that funding back," says the Democratic strategist.
'Political earthquake'
Texas Senate race between Paxton and Talarico has become a bitter race and a multi-million-dollar showdown. Both have been trying to woo voters on issues such as character, political corruption, culture wars, economy, affordability, immigration and infrastructure.
With voters making the economy their top priority this midterm cycle, and most US polls ranking it above every other issue, Lapetina says there is an affordability issue, which is unusual because it is tied to foreign policy — the US-Iran war.
"A majority of Americans think that higher gas prices aren't particularly tied to the Iran war. Even though the Democrats will have a hard time stopping Trump from prosecuting that war if he chooses to go forward, it will make a big effort to rally Americans against the war saying it’s causing prices to go up," argues Lapetina.
If Republicans fail to hold their traditional bastion in these midterms, it would mark one of the most consequential political shifts in modern US history.
Most forecasts predicting a Democratic win in Texas also project overall Senate control, with probabilities between 60 and 75 per cent ahead of Tuesday's election.
"I do not believe Texas will flip, but if it does, it would represent a significant political earthquake for the Republican Party," says Rothschild.
Losing a statewide Senate race in Texas would force Republicans to seriously reevaluate their messaging, candidate selection, voter outreach, and overall electoral strategy, he adds.
"It would also raise broader questions about the party's ability to maintain its traditional coalition, particularly among suburban and independent voters," says the Republican strategist.
"Texas has been a cornerstone of Republican strength for decades. A Democratic victory would send a clear warning to Republicans nationwide that even their most reliable strongholds can no longer be taken for granted."
