Indian election results: 'We don't just want change, we need change'

At about 3 p.m. on a hot summer’s day in New Delhi, India, when temperatures were hovering around 40 degrees Celsius, a group of men huddled over a smartphone, eagerly watching something.

From afar, you would be forgiven for thinking that the men were watching the latest blockbuster movie, but they were glued to the news, as the trends of the Indian national elections started trickling in, which have been nothing short of nail-biting.

While the exit polls released on June 1 had projected a landslide win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the official trends show a much closer contest with the multi-party opposition led by Indian National Congress, called the INDIA bloc, putting up a performance better than what most pollsters had estimated.

On average, 12 different exit polls had said that the BJP led NDA would win 365 seats, while the INDIA bloc would be restricted to 146 seats. Nine out of the 12 polls had said that the NDA would win over 350 seats.

However, by around 4 p.m., the BJP-led NDA was leading in less than 300 seats, of which the BJP had less than 250. By 5.30 pm, the BJP’s lead had slipped further to less than 240 seats, and the NDA's to less than 290 seats.

At precisely the same time, the INDIA bloc was now leading in over 230 seats. This was at odds even with the most conservative and measured projections given by the Hindi language newspaper Dainik Bhaskar- which said the NDA would win 281-350 seats, while the INDIA bloc would be limited to 145-201 seats.

The results show a significant drop for the BJP compared to their performance in 2019, when they had single-handedly managed to cross the majority mark of 272, with 303 seats. If the trends hold, then the BJP would be dependent on its allies to form the government at the Centre, and PM Modi’s bid for a rare third term as PM could depend on their allies staying loyal.

“The trends explain the kind of tenacity and vibrancy of the Indian democracy. The narrative that was created with the help of some sections of the media and the exit polls is challenged. Brand Modi has been affected, and the opposition is feeling jubilant,” Rasheed Kidwai, a political analyst, told TRT World.

Kidwai’s point is borne out by the vote margins as well. Modi won the Varanasi seat in Uttar Pradesh in 2014 and 2019 by huge margins. In 2019, Modi won the seat with close to 700,000 votes, almost 500,000 more than his next rival. In 2024, though the seat has been called in his favour, Modi has won only a little over 600,000 votes and a vote margin of only a little over 150,000 votes.

Anshu Kumar, who works as a chauffeur for a family in Delhi and is also from Uttar Pradesh, agrees with his friend Singh. “The biggest problems are price rise and unemployment. A lot of people voted based on these issues,” he says.

The northern state of Uttar Pradesh, known colloquially as UP, is the most populous state in India, which sends the highest number of parliamentarians (80) to Delhi, from across India’s 28 states. It is said that ‘the road to Delhi passes through UP,’ as more often than not, the party that performs well in this Hindi heartland state, goes on to grab power at the Centre.

Trends showed that the BJP was leading in less than half the seats in UP. In fact, the Samajwadi Party, a regional party part of the INDIA bloc, is leading in the most seats.

From the men in the group watching election coverage, Pradeep Singh Rawat, who hails from Uttarakhand shared his opinion.

“It looks like the BJP is winning and I wanted that. Inflation is there all over the world. But Modi did a lot of work here. He abrogated Article 370 (which gave autonomy and special status to Jammu and Kashmir),” said Rawat.

When Singh pushed back and asked him how would that benefit common Indians like themselves, Rawat added “I just felt happy to see that Kashmir was now truly a part of India”.

Rawat also spoke of the grand Ram Temple that was consecrated by the PM earlier this year at a contested site of a demolished mosque. “These things make us happy,” he said.

The Ram Temple was seen as a game-changer for the BJP, which led most experts to predict a landslide win for the BJP until a couple of months ago. But once the elections began, it was clear that voter concerns centred on rising unemployment and price rise.

“More than temples, we need schools. Schools produce doctors and engineers, temples only create beggars, who sit outside the temple,” said Singh.

However, for some of BJP’s core voter base, many of whom subscribe to a Hindu nationalist ideology, the Ram Mandir was still counted amongst the biggest achievements of the Modi government.

“I am a BJP supporter, and I want the BJP to come back. Modi did a lot of good work- like the abrogation of Article 370, the inauguration of the Ram Mandir, and they also did a lot of development,” said Ram Kishore, who runs small stalls selling clothes and fruits in Delhi.

Degree to delivery driver

While the contest is close, analysts like Kidwai say that they don’t see a scenario where the multi-party opposition would come to power; much to the disappointment of those like Rajan Bharti.

Bharti is a graduate with a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from UP, but with no jobs available, he is currently working as a delivery person with food delivery apps.

“I was hoping that the Congress would come to power, will have to wait and see if they manage to come to power… (The BJP government) has done nothing in our constituency… The biggest issue this election season was jobs. If we could get jobs, why would I come 600 kms away from home to do this job?” said Bharti.

But for those like business analyst Roshen Veeran, who hails from Kerala, it is about taking solace in the small victories.

Veeran told TRT World that India needs to change the way it judges “a win,” as it entered an election year that “presented a one-sided mainstream media and exit poll narrative.” To him, breaking the myth of the “invincibility of divisive politics” was the biggest win this election.

“Whatever the result might bring today, one thing is clear. India is rising against hate and social injustice after a decade of marinating in it. The ideological battle shall continue to bring a brighter and stronger future for India. There is more hope than there was yesterday,” he said.