Pita Limjaroenrat loses vote to become Thailand's new PM

The leading candidate in Thailand's race for prime minister has failed to win enough votes in parliament, despite his party winning the popular vote and the most seats in the House of Representatives during the recent elections.

Pita Limjaroenrat on Thursday received 324 affirmative votes, while 182 voted against him and 199 abstained. To win, he needed a 376 majority votes from the combined total of the elected 500-seat House of Representatives and the unelected 250-seat Senate.

Following the vote, Pita said he would not give up on his prime ministerial bid despite him being 51 votes shy of the required threshold.

Pita said his party would re-strategise to gather the required support to win the next vote on the premier, which is expected to be held next week, and which Pita can contest if nominated again.

The political neophyte rode a wave of support in May that saw voters emphatically reject almost a decade of army-backed rule under Prayut Chan-o-cha, who took power in a 2014 coup.

But the outcome had become increasingly inevitable, with signs conservative MPs of the lower house and the pro-military senators would not give him their support.

Ahead of the parliamentary vote, nearby highway overpasses had razor wire placed on them. At the same time, the parliament compound was ringed by containers designed to deter demonstrators, a sign of the tensions around the event.

During the May polls, Pita's party captured 151 of the 500 House seats and has assembled a coalition government-in-waiting. The eight parties in the coalition won 312 seats combined, a healthy House majority.

But an overwhelming majority of the unelected Senate opposed him, with only 13 supporting him out of the 250 senators appointed with backing from the military. Many of the senators had expressed open hostility against Pita.

Also on Wednesday, the Election Commission said it concluded there was evidence that Pita had violated election law, and referred his case to the Constitutional Court for a ruling. If the court accepts the case and finds him guilty, he could lose his House seat, get kicked out of politics and face a prison sentence.

The biggest hurdle between the liberals backing Move Forward and the deeply conservative Senate is the campaign promise of Pita’s party to amend a law that makes defaming the royal family punishable by three to 15 years in prison.

The monarchy is sacrosanct to members of Thailand’s royalist establishment, and even minor reforms that might improve and modernise the monarchy’s image are anathema to them. Move Forward’s coalition partners also have not endorsed the proposed legal change, and other parties ruled out joining the coalition over the idea.

The country is currently being run by caretaker prime minister, Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former general who led a coup in 2014 before seeking civilian office. On Tuesday, Prayuth announced that he is retiring from politics.

Viable options

If Pita cannot win over enough senators, his options appear nil. The options for the eight-party coalition as a whole appear more viable.

One option is for the Pheu Thai Party, which used to be the royalist establishment’s top rival, to put forward one of its members as a candidate for prime minister. The party is closely affiliated with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a billionaire populist who was ousted in a 2006 military coup, in part because his popularity rubbed royalists the wrong way.

Thaksin-backed parties finished first in every election from 2001 until this past May but were blocked or forced from power each time. The 2014 coup seized power from a government that Thaksin’s sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, had formed.

Pheu Thai enrolled three of its members as potential prime minister candidates this year, including Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Real estate developer Srettha Thavisin, another of the trio, is considered more likely to have his name put forward if Pita isn't elected.

If the coalition cannot win enough support because Move Forward is a part of it, it could be dropped and other parties recruited to replace it. This could involve ceding the prime minister’s seat to a newly enlisted coalition partner, such as the Bhumjaithai Party, which polled third in the May election and secured 71 House seats. The party's leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, was health minister in the outgoing government and has made no secret of his political ambitions.

There have been fears that Thailand’s conservative ruling establishment would use what its political opponents consider to be dirty tricks to cling to power.

For a decade and a half, it has repeatedly utilised the courts and supposedly independent state agencies to issue questionable rulings to cripple or sink political opponents.

The alleged violation against Pita involves undeclared ownership of media company shares, which are banned for Thai lawmakers.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University, describes the charges as "bogus," and says many people will be unwilling to accept them.

“It all depends on how far the royalist conservative establishment wants to go after Pita and prevent a democratic outcome,” Thitinan said.

Michael Montesano, a Thai studies expert who is an associate senior fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, said Thailand's political system should "move into closer correspondence with the realities of Thai society and with the aspirations of its younger, well educated members.”

"The biggest question is whether this transition will be painful and even violent, or whether it will be constructive and thus serve the country’s future prospects," he said.