Venezuela election sparks geopolitical feud between US, China and Russia

One week after Venezuela held its presidential election on July 28, the United States and its rivals China and Russia are taking sides in the debate over who actually won power in the South American state, which has had an anti-Western socialist leadership under President Nicolas Maduro.

The US contests the official results declared by the National Electoral Council (CNE), the country's election oversight authority, which said that Maduro won 51 percent against opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia's 44 percent.

Meanwhile China and Russia are standing by the incumbent president.

According to the US-backed opposition, Gonzalez won the presidency with a large margin. He has called for protests against Maduro, and anti-government demonstrations have been raging across Venezuela since the CNE's declaration of election results. Maduro described the unrest as a far-right conspiracy against his government.

Venezuela's election has also divided Latin America, where pro-Western governments from Argentina to Peru, Panama and several other states rejected the official result. Countries like Cuba, which have socialist leaderships, have backed Maduro's reelection.

"At present, Maduro's victory has received congratulatory messages from left governments in the region including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia and critical reactions from the US and European countries," said Richard Falk, a leading international relations expert.

Meanwhile, Mexico, Brazil and Colombia, the three critical Latin American countries with leftist or left-leaning governments, have distanced themselves from the US position. These nations have important interactions with both Russia and China, and oppose external interference to address the Venezuelan impasse.

But the three states also called on Caracas to release details of election results, urging an internal "institutional solution". Caracas says that a hacking attack prevents the electoral oversight body from releasing detailed outcomes as its website continues to be down.

History of tensions

Venezuela has seen at least two failed coup attempts against anti-Western governments since the Bolivarian Revolution in 1999, which was launched by Venezuelan socialist leader Hugo Chavez, who passed away in 2013 which brought his protege Maduro to power.

The Bolivarian revolution refers to Simon Bolivar, a 19th-century Venezuelan leader who was instrumental in achieving the independence of some South American states from Spanish rule. Like Bolivar in the past, Chavez and later Maduro along with their allies have aimed to form an anti-Western socialist bloc across the region.

"The natural stance of the opposition and of countries (Western powers) is to oppose Madurismo-Chavismo," said Juan Martin Gonzalez Cabañas, a researcher at Moscow State Linguistic University (MSLU) and a Eurasia specialist at the Argentine-based Center of Studies "Soberanía".

Madurismo-Chavismo refers to the ongoing leftist governance in Venezuela since the Bolivarian revolution. So far, at least two failed coup attempts were launched against the Venezuelan socialist leadership.

In 2002, US-linked forces ousted Chavez for a brief time from power, but in a dramatic reversal, much of the military loyal to Chavez restored him to power after a tense 47 hours. In 2020, there was another failed coup attempt against Maduro's government. This one was orchestrated by Jordan Goudreau, a US Green Beret, who was recently arrested by the US in New York for arms smuggling.

"More or less impartial commentators believe that the political outcome will depend on whether the Venezuelan armed forces continue to back Maduro and whether the opposition is militant and organised enough to threaten the survival of the Maduro government," Falk told TRT World.

Cabanas assesses that Western powers' antagonist relationship with Maduro and their approach to his reelection bid are clearly related to their political interests. "A [Venezuelan] government opposed to Chavismo would be more functional to their objectives," he told TRT World.

Russia and China weigh in

On the other hand, the Kremlin is on the side of Maduro, "firmly" backing him and the outcomes of elections that recognised him and his government as winner of elections, according to Cabanas.

China, which has already congratulated Maduro on a third term following the release of election results, also reiterated its support for the socialist leader.

"China will, as always, firmly support Venezuela's efforts to safeguard national sovereignty, national dignity and social stability, and firmly support Venezuela's just cause of opposing external interference," President Xi Jinping said last week.

Both Chavez and Maduro have been long aligned with the anti-Western camp, ranging from Russia to China and regional leftist states like Cuba to counter US influence in Venezuela.

But Caracas faces a serious economic recession under US-led sanctions, which has led more than 7.7 million Venezuelans to migrate to other countries, particularly the US, since 2014.

It's difficult to present a fair assessment of the elections because "they are being undertaken in a country that operates in a state of economic siege and hostile relations with the United States," said Alexander Moldovan, a researcher on social movements and security in Latin America at York University.

"Democracy and national security are difficult to balance," Moldovan told TRT World, referring to the Venezuelan political dilemma. He sees that the country's post-election process will be difficult as both pro-government and opposition forces have been entrenched into their firm positions.

Prior to the election, Maduro has shown his flexibility and held talks with Washington to address the two countries' differences, aiming to reach an agreement to ease sanctions.

"Although Maduro's victory is a win for the counter-hegemonic powers that counterweights the West, this fact should be measured in its proper context: Venezuela is facing an economic recovery after very hard years, and Chavismo is no longer an ideological 'export brand' as it used to be, at least in its region (South America/Latin America)," Cabanas added.

Madurism and regional socialist trends

Falk said he believes that Madurism's future might depend on how "governments with progressive credentials, such as Colombia, Brazil and Mexico, will influence" its perceptions outside Venezuela if the socialist leader's reelection is "sustained in a future period that is bound to be turbulent."

The three countries are part of BRICS, a non-Western alliance, and have not sided with the Western stance, as Brazil's leftist President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva said he found "nothing abnormal" in the election process.

"If Maduro manages to hold on, and especially if he gains support from Brazil and other moderate governments, it will be interpreted as a setback for ideologically motivated US coercive diplomacy, including an effort to exert political influence by imposing sanctions unilaterally," Falk said.

But if the opposite political scenario becomes a reality, then Maduro's exit and opposition success could be perceived "as allied with the right and the beneficiary of US intervention," according to Falk. This perception would essentially empower leftist tendencies in Latin America, "not so much for the sake of socialism or electoral integrity, but to assure sovereign rights and resistance to foreign intervention, especially on behalf of capitalist vested interests."

The professor also drew attention to the media's use of political language when it comes to internal settings and processes of anti-Western states like Venezuela.

While pro-Maduro forces describe María Corina Machado Parisca, a leading opposition leader, and Gonzales, as the leaders of "right-wing" or "far-right" groups, "the liberal media never uses this language, painting the struggle as between "autocratic" and "democratic" tendencies," he said.

On the other hand, "Maduro describes his movement as one on behalf of the people, especially the poor and marginalised, rarely speaking of 'socialism' as the inspiration or goal," he added.