Assad's downfall marks seismic shift in Palestinian politics and resistance

For 54 years, the Assad regime (both father and son) cloaked itself in the mantle of Arabism, positioning Syria as a staunch defender of Palestine and its struggle against Israeli occupation.

This narrative, analysts argue, was a convenient tool—used to justify the crushing of dissent as it claimed to confront a more important foe. Meanwhile, the regime courted Palestinian factions, offering financial and military support in exchange for loyalty, all while leveraging them to advance its own agenda.

Now, as Bashar al Assad's iron grip dissolved, Palestinian factions it once sheltered hang in the balance. Analysts warn of sweeping ramifications—not just for the groups aligned with Assad, but for the broader Palestinian cause itself.

According to some estimates, there are more than a dozen Palestinian factions in Syria, many with little connection to Palestine itself. Regarding the Palestinian factions it harboured, Assad's regime was always driven by pragmatic, rather than ideological, motives.

Analyst Murad Sabbagh notes that the regime's alliance with Palestinian groups was primarily about optics. Speaking to TRT World, he said, "The Assad regime portrayed itself as a bastion of resistance against Israel while simultaneously oppressing its own people. It was never about genuine solidarity with the Palestinian cause."

Existential crisis

The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command (PFLP-GC), an armed group merging Arabism and Marxist ideologies, is one such faction.

Created following the Israeli occupation of the West Bank in 1967, the small group had claimed several attacks against Israeli and Western targets.

The PFLP-GC, like Return and Liberation Brigades and the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), have aligned themselves closely with the regime during the Syrian civil war.

Their loyalty came at a high cost: widespread hostility from the Syrian opposition and accusations of complicity in the destruction of Palestinian refugee camps like Yarmouk in Damascus.

Political analyst Ahed Ferwana emphasises that these factions now face a grim reality.

"The groups that fought alongside Assad have alienated the new rulers of Syria, jeopardising their ability to operate in the country. They may also face legal repercussions for their role in atrocities committed during the civil war,” he tells TRT World.

The collapse of Assad's regime, he adds, means such factions - mainly the PFLP-GC, the DFLP and others - lack alternative patrons. They could lose up to 90 percent of their ability to operate, he notes.

Different futures

The impact of Assad's fall will not be uniform across Palestinian factions.

Groups with broader regional connections, such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, may find ways to successfully navigate the new political landscape.

Hamas, Gaza's governing party that was once an ally of the Assad regime, distanced itself early on in the Syrian uprising, siding with the opposition and leaving Damascus in 2012.

Although Hamas recently attempted to mend ties with Assad before his fall, Ferwana suggests that the reconciliation was limited. "Hamas is not as entrenched in the regime as other factions. Its pragmatic approach and ties with Islamic movements governing Syria now could help it weather this storm," he says.

On the other hand, Palestinian Islamic Jihad faces a more uncertain future. While it has significant connections to Iran, and it largely avoided getting embroiled in the Syrian civil war, its alignment with Assad complicates its ability to secure a foothold in Syria without him.

Adding to the complexity is the deteriorating situation in Lebanon. Once a fallback option for Palestinian factions, Lebanon's economic collapse and political instability make it an unsuitable alternative.

Sabbagh notes that factions might look further afield, but each option come with their own risks. "Operating far from Palestine weakens their ability to act effectively against Israel and leaves them vulnerable to international pressures," he explains.

Geopolitical fallout

The collapse of Assad marks a seismic shift for the broader regional balance. Israel, which has long sought to stymy threats on its northern front, exploits the situation to advance its own agenda, undermining Syria’s unity.

Since Syrian anti-Assad regime groups captured Damascus on December 8, Israel has launched unprecedented airstrikes on Syria, targeting significant military targets, and its forces waded deep into the country, beyond a buffer zone in the occupied Golan Heights set in 1967 between the two neighbours.

Yet some analysts see potential opportunities for Palestine. Dr. Sami Al-Astal, a professor at the now-razed Al-Aqsa University in Gaza, argues that a stable, democratic Syria could ultimately become an ally to the Palestinian cause in a way Assad's regime never truly was.

"The Assad regime used Palestinian factions as a tool to bolster its legitimacy," he says. "A new Syrian government could support Palestinians politically and diplomatically without exploiting them for propaganda."

The collapse of Assad's regime could also prompt a rethinking of resistance strategies.

"Palestinians must focus on strengthening their society—education, healthcare, governance—while using political and diplomatic channels to confront the occupation. Armed resistance alone cannot sustain a liberation movement."

The internal divisions among Palestinian factions, exacerbated by Assad's favoritism, must also be addressed. Al-Astal believes that the fall of the regime could provide an opportunity to heal rifts. "Without Assad fueling factional rivalries, Palestinian groups have a chance to unify under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority or another representative body," he says.

He concludes with cautious optimism: "A stable Syria can become a true partner in the Palestinian struggle—not through weapons and camps, but through diplomacy, advocacy, and support for the Palestinian people's rights. The road ahead is uncertain, but it may yet lead to a stronger, more united resistance."

This piece was published in collaboration with Egab.