China war prep echoes Azerbaijan’s tactics but on a big scale - analysis

The People's Liberation Army of China has been preparing for a potential invasion of Taiwan for years, a fact known worldwide. China continuously tests its new technologies, including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in military exercises around the island country.

Globally, the growing number of UAVs and its varying methods of usage may provide some clues about the future of this technology. Pioneered by the USA and China, drone technology has been actively used in wars and conflicts since the 1990s. Israel's active involvement in the early 2000s and its technological collaboration with the USA solidified the use of UAVs and unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) in the Middle East.

Türkiye has made significant technological investments in developing cost-effective and efficient drones over the last 20 years. The Bayraktar TB-2 UCAVs—which were used in operations in Northern Iraq, Syria and Libya—have been extensively purchased by Türkiye’s allies and have showcased the quality of Turkish drone technology to the world. Models like the Bayraktar TB-2, Akıncı, ANKA, and Aksungur are actively used by the Turkish Armed Forces, and are also sold to allied forces.

The impact of the Bayraktar TB-2 UCAVs during the Second Karabakh War is undeniable. This is evident from President Erdogan's invitation to Azerbaijan's victory celebrations and the inclusion of TB-2 UCAVs in the victory parade. The footage of destroyed Armenian military vehicles in the battlefield shows how effective this technology was in combat. However, the Second Karabakh War has also made its mark in history with some incidents that escaped the attention of military strategists and were not widely covered in the media.

Azerbaijan cleverly converted AN-2 type Soviet planes for combat, which were initially used for agricultural spraying during the 1950s. According to pre-war satellite images, more than 60 AN-2 type planes were located at the Yevlakh military base. During the conflict, the cockpits of these planes were replaced with remote control systems, turning them into UCAVs.

The Azerbaijan Army used these bomb-laden planes both as bait for Armenian air defense systems and in kamikaze attacks. This new tactic rendered Armenian air defense systems passive in many conflicts. During the war, the Armenian military reported downing AN-2-type planes, but noted no pilot ejections.

Remotely-controlled AN-2 planes exposed the locations of engaging air defense systems, providing cover for more valuable targets like the Bayraktar TB-2. The reduced number of AN-2 platforms at the same airbase post-war shows the extent of their use. According to satellite images taken right after the war, only 27 platforms remained at the Yevlakh airbase. Coordinates of Armenian air defense systems identified during the conflict were targeted by Azerbaijan's Bayraktar TB-2s, kamikaze drones, and artillery units. This revolutionary combat style might have set an example for larger nations.

According to current reports, China has yet to test the new tactic that is inspired by Azerbaijan's army in the Karabakh War. The J-6 fighter jets stationed at airbases near Taiwan provide clues about the upcoming conflict.

These fighter jets, which are advanced versions of the Soviet-made MIG-19s from the 1950s, were the main combat aircraft of the Chinese Air Force during the Cold War. Actively used between the 1960s and 1990, these aircrafts seem to be prepared for reuse. China continues to transform these jets, estimated to number over 1,000 in its inventory, for a new-generation of warfare.

Satellite images reveal that over 600 J-6 jets have been deployed at airbases near Taiwan. Considering the outdated technology of these planes, the tactic China might employ in the upcoming attack becomes evident. The cockpits of these planes have been replaced with remote control systems, and they are war ready should there be a large-scale attack on Taiwan. The jets stationed at Lontian, Lushan, and Huaian airbases can be moved to civilian and military airports closer to Taiwan at any time.

Given the average distance of 250 kilometers between China's coastal airports and Taiwan, and the 650-kilometer attack range with dual tanks, it is not hard to imagine how effective J-6 jets can be. The response of Taiwan's SHORAD-focused air defense system to the simultaneous entry of over 600 unmanned J-6 jets into its airspace remains uncertain. Capable of both target deception and attacks on the air defense system, J-6 jets pose a significant threat to Taiwan. Aware of the current threats, Taiwan ordered additional Stinger missiles in 2019 through an agreement with the Trump administration. However, considering China's new-generation fighter jets like the J-11 and their systems, predicting the outcome of a potential air war is not difficult.

China's ongoing preparations and constantly changing geopolitical developments provide us with clues about the anticipated conflict in the Far East. Inspired by the tactics actively used by Azerbaijan in the Second Karabakh War, China is preparing for a large-scale new-generation war. Whether the US will assist its ally Taiwan in countering this new style of warfare will likely become evident in the coming months.