Europe's gas crisis gives new impetus to neo-Nazis in Germany

A video recently surfaced on social media of two police officers in Berlin brutally arresting a Syrian refugee in his home, in front of his two young children, for the non-payment of a 750 Euro ($475) fine. When the man's wife protested the aggressive nature of the arrest, one police officer turned to her and said, “this is my land, you are a guest here.”

Soon after the video went viral, the far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) jumped in with a near-full-page newspaper ad titled 'We stand with you' in support of the rogue police officer.

For Germany, this marked a turning point: In the ensuing weeks, the country noted a marked increase in far-right protests in bigger cities, followed closely by violence and a suspected arson attack on the home of some Ukrainian refugees.

Massive protests by the far-right neo-Nazi AfD have been particularly prevalent in Berlin, where protestors have decried both the country’s energy shortage and the inflation of the cost of living. 'When there's not enough for Germans, why give it to outsiders' has become their new rallying call.

But more worryingly, Germany's top polling agency recently reported a steep rise in popularity of the AfD in political opinion polls across the country.

Declining orders

Analysts agree that the larger catalyst for the change in sentiment of the German voter is the country’s gradual economic decline, the end of which is not yet visible.

"Yes, it's worrying; one often sees [that] these kinds of parties tend to do well in times of crises. We saw it in the Syrian refugee crisis, in the corona pandemic crisis and it's happening again now while we're going through an economic and energy crisis," says political analyst professor Hajo Funke.

The German economy is facing a recession, with its GDP heading toward a downward slide for the year 2023 and its exports taking a serious hit, with declining orders from international buyers. The country's current account surplus narrowed sharply to 0.6 billion Euros (nearly $600 million) in August 2022 from 17 billion Euros (close to $17 billion) in the same month last year.

The ongoing energy crisis means heating costs have more than doubled for many across the country, pushing thousands of businesses to shut down.

One of Germany's largest bakery chains Thilmann Brot GmbH has gone bankrupt, and the country's largest toilet paper manufacturer Hakle has closed down due to rising energy prices.

As Germany prepares for the upcoming recession, there are fears that public spending cuts affecting welfare payments will further elevate far-right movements.

Funke says, "With the Ukrainian war, we now have 1.2 million refugees in Germany who are also facing the sort of problems Syrian refugees faced, especially in the east of the country. "

The problem in the East

In the east of Germany, there are states that were previously part of the now-former USSR-aligned East Germany, where pro-Russian sentiment is still thriving. From the onset of the war in Ukraine, what initially were murmurs of opposition to sanctions against Russia have now evolved into a shrill protest.

Many of these states have remained economically deprived since the reunification of Germany, with fewer job opportunities and higher rates of crime and drug abuse.

In the state of Saxony, in the relatively affluent city of Leipzig, a demonstration against inflation and the energy crisis took an ugly turn when protestors came across Ukrainian refugees and began to shout slogans against Russian sanctions and about how Ukrainian refugees weren't welcome in Germany — because Germans aren't doing so well themselves.

While the German government is currently hosting a conference on rebuilding efforts in Ukraine, there is fast-receding support for the former Soviet state — at least in some quarters of the German public.

In another eastern state, Mecklenburg Vorpommern, pollsters have measured a five percent rise in the number of people saying they would vote for the AfD in future elections.

While no direct correlation can be established with the AfD, a home for Ukrainian refugees was burnt down in the town of Wismar, raising reasonable suspicion. Authorities suspect it was an arson attack and are quietly worried that such assaults could rise in frequency, leading to wider opposition to Ukrainian refugees and further dissipating public approval of Germany's financial and militaristic support to Ukraine.

"We know Wismar is a hotspot for neo-Nazis — it has been so for a while. This was definitely a racist attack on Ukrainian refugees and the fear is that it will increase. The economic crisis has aroused these sentiments, there is no question about that," says Funke.

In a 2017 interview, the son of a former Nazi general warned that ideology coupled with economic deprivation could steer Germany towards a return to authoritarianism.

Niklas Frank, son of the former governor-general of then-Nazi-occupied Poland, told the BBC in an interview: “Dont trust us Germans.”

Niklas, who has openly expressed disgust for the crimes committed by his father during the Nazi regime, warned that "as long as our economy is great, and as long as we make money, everything is very democratic."

However, he added that a sustained economic recession could lead Germany to abandon all democratic values and push it back into the arms of authoritarianism.