How drones are impacting the war between Ukraine and Russia

When Kiev showcased its drone prowess with an attack on a Russian ammunition dump in the Tver region, the “earthquake-sized blast” sent shockwaves through the Kremlin, which was basking in recent advances along different fronts across eastern Ukraine.

Last week’s attack targeted one of Russia’s largest weapons silos in Toropets, a town in the Tver Oblast, 470km inside Russian territory.

Over the weekend, Russia and Ukraine exchanged intense drone attacks, demonstrating how unmanned aerial vehicles have become a defining aspect of the war.

Experts say that the extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles – the official term for drones – has changed the very nature of warfare in Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II.

“Drone warfare has emerged as a major component of the Russia-Ukraine war and the use of drones serves multiple tactical and strategic purposes for both Moscow and Kiev,” says Eugene Chausovsky, a defence expert and a senior director on analytical development and training at New Lines Institute.

“For Ukraine, drones have served to mitigate some of its weaknesses on the frontlines compared to Russia’s conventional advantages in terms of military size and capabilities,” Chausovsky tells TRT World, adding that Kiev has been able to use drones to attack Russian sites far beyond the frontlines.

On September 10, Ukrainian drones even hit Russia’s capital Moscow, killing one woman and injuring several others in one of the suburbs of the city, which was a first in the ongoing conflict. After the attack, Russia suspended flights at three of its four international airports.

Putting pressure on enemy

By attacking military sites in the occupied Crimean peninsula and energy and other critical infrastructure deep inside Russian territory, Ukraine aims “to place pressure on not only the Russian military but also Russian society in order to improve its own negotiating position in ending the war”, achieving a sustainable ceasefire agreement, according to Chausovsky.

Russia also uses similar tactics, deploying its drones against Ukrainian targets, ranging from military sites to power and energy networks, says the defence analyst.

“This is intended to weaken Ukraine militarily and economically, while also aiming to place political pressure on the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy to drop his pro-Western stance and instead acquiesce to Russian demands over issues like territory and NATO integration,” says Chausovsky.

Oleg Ignatov, a senior analyst on Russia at the International Crisis Group, also points to the extensive use of drones by both Ukraine and Russia to gain battlefield superiority.

“If somebody will start telling the story of this war, he or she will have to talk about drones,” he tells TRT World.

Though drones are an “important tool”, particularly in intelligence gathering and attacks on military infrastructure, Ignatov feels that without warplanes and enough artillery power, it would be difficult for both sides to gain superiority on the battlefield.

Ukraine does not have many fighter jets and the country has long requested western countries to supply warplanes to Kiev. In August, western states delivered at least six F-16s to Ukraine, but they have not made much of an impact in Kiev’s air force capability when compared to Moscow.

Without enough fighter jets, Ukrainians have turned to drones to fight Russians.

Ignatov drew attention to the fact that there are no statistics on which types of weapons - drones, warplanes, artillery or tanks - have proved most effective. “The military only has such a statistic,” says Ignatov.

Both experts also point out that besides drone power, there are many other factors to decide the outcome of the war like manpower, ammunition, hybrid activity such as sanctions and cyber warfare, diplomatic maneuvering with various regional and global players and the economic strength.

‘Dragon drones’

Most recently, Kiev also deployed dragon drones, particularly in areas like Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine where Moscow has made inroads, aiming to burn forests to expose Russian positions.

“Dragon drones” is a new version of the napalm bomb, originally produced in Harvard University’s secret laboratories and used in both WWI and WWII leading to widespread damage.

These drones can spread waves of fire, sparked by a white-hot mixture of aluminium powder and iron oxide, over enemy positions. The mixture is called thermite in military terminology.

“It’s napalm,” Ignatov tells TRT World, referring to dragon drones. Americans used it in the Vietnam War and besides Ukraine, Russia also uses them in the current conflict, he adds.

The use of napalm bombs against civilian populations was banned by the UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW) in 1980. However, its use against military targets was not specifically prohibited by international law.

There are not many forests in eastern Ukraine, which makes the deployment of dragon drones by Kiev a little useless, says Ignatov, adding to that is the approaching winter, which will further complicate matters. As a result, he does not think that dragon drones can lead to any real “breakthrough” in the ongoing war.

Which side has the advantage?

In coal-rich Donbass, eastern Ukraine, Russia has continued to advance since November, says Ignatov. “Ukrainians are trying to stop them, but it does not work very well. I would say that the crisis of Ukrainian defence continues.”

Overall, the general picture of Russians gradually advancing and Ukrainian’s gradual retreat has not changed since last year, according to the analyst. But even in Kursk, right now Russia is on the offensive, he adds.

While the ongoing situation is “still quite open, the advantage is still on the Russian side,” he assesses.

“I don't know anyone following the war who thinks Ukraine can win the war militarily,” says Edward Erickson, a former American military officer and a retired Professor of Military History from the Department of War Studies at the Marine Corps University.

But if the West keeps Ukraine supplied and fighting, it offers the only possible path of a Ukrainian victory against Russia through "protracted war" theory developed by Chinese Communist Revolution leader Mao Zedong, according to the American analyst.

“If you exhaust your enemy's patience and resources, you destroy his will to fight. This is how North Vietnam ‘defeated’ the US in 1975. We quit. If Putin and the Russians lose the will to fight, they will quit and go home,” Erickson tells TRT World.

“Whether Ukraine can outlast Russia in a protracted war is today's question.”