How drying up of the Caspian Sea will impact economies and geopolitics

In recent weeks, Mohammad Reza Kavianpour, the head of the Iranian Water Research Center, announced that the water level of the Caspian Sea has dropped by approximately half a meter in the last few years.

He said the level has decreased by 25 cm in the past year alone, indicating that this trend will persist mainly because of global warming, with adverse effects becoming even more pronounced in the next few years.

In his statement, Kavianpour noted that 190 billion cubic meters of water have been lost thus far due to the decline in the Caspian Sea's water level. Additionally, in another announcement, Ali Baitollahi, the Director of the Risk Management Desk at the Center for Road and Urbanization Research within the Iranian Ministry of Roads and Urbanization, asserted that a 9 cm subsidence of soil has occurred along the Caspian Sea coast due to the receding water level of the Caspian Sea.

The environmental issues concerning the Caspian Sea extend beyond the mere decrease in its water level—there are also claims of drought emerging along its shores. Mehrdad Khazaei Poul, the Director General of Natural Resources and Watershed Management in Mazandaran province of Iran, recently asserted to the Iranian press that drought is occurring on the western shores of the Caspian Sea. In his statement, Mehrdad Khazaei Poul endeavored to highlight this issue by stating that "the receding water levels of the Caspian Sea have resulted in the emergence of a 1.5 million square meter arid zone along the western coast of Mazandaran province."

Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, in his statement on December 25, 2023, highlighted the receding water levels of the Caspian Sea and warned that it faces the imminent threat of complete desiccation in the forthcoming decades.

Iran's Water Challenge

One of Iran's significant challenges is the ongoing drought and the escalating water crisis within the country, which has reached a critical level. It is anticipated that this issue will emerge as one of Iran's foremost national security concerns in the foreseeable future.

Babak Negahdari, the Director of the Iranian Parliament Research Center, highlighted during his address at the VII International Conference on Climate Change held in Tehran on January 29, 2024, that Iran has experienced a decrease in rainfall by 50 mm over the past 50 years, with 62 percent of the country grappling with drought.

Speaking at a conference hosted at the National Library of Iran, Dariush Gol Alizadeh, the Director of the National Center for Weather and Climate Change at Iran's Environmental Protection Organization, revealed that due to drought and climate crisis, 800,000 individuals have migrated from the southern and central regions of Iran to the northern areas within the last two years.

Ali Pourahmad, the Director of the Eastern and Central Plateau Wetlands Department at Iran's Water Resources Management Company, stated that Iran's total water resources have declined by 35 percent in the long term. Pourahmad emphasized that Iran is currently experiencing its fourth consecutive year of drought, and the problem persists due to the insufficient rainfall needed to alleviate the crisis.

One of the foremost environmental challenges stemming from Iran's drought and water scarcity is the desiccation of Lake Urmia located in the country's northwest. Reports in the Iranian media indicate that the most recent satellite imagery of Lake Urmia depicts only 4 percent of its water remaining. This signifies that Lake Urmia, the sixth-largest salt lake globally and the largest lake in the Middle East, is rapidly desiccating, transitioning into an ecologically lifeless entity.

Environmental experts warn that the drying up of this lake will potentially lead to severe environmental ramifications, including salt storms in the region, significantly impacting the local ecosystem.

Iranian environmental activists are criticizing the Iranian government for its perceived apathy towards the depletion of the lake. Most recently, Firouz Ghasemzadeh, the spokesperson for Iran's water industry, declared that Lake Urmia, with less than 1 billion cubic meters of water, requires 14 billion cubic meters of water to restore it to its normal ecological level.

Among the primary factors contributing to the desiccation of Lake Urmia are misguided water management policies, the construction of water dams, diminishing precipitation attributed to global climate change, and escalating evaporation. Certain recent statements from Iranian authorities have raised concerns that the Caspian Sea may face a similar plight. Authorities, noting a significant depletion in the Caspian Sea's water levels, contend that this issue will persist.

Russia accused

Iranian officials primarily blame Russia for the depletion of the Caspian Sea's water. Indeed, on January 22, 2024, Ali Baitollahi, the head of the Risk Desk at the Center for Road and Urbanization Studies of the Iranian Ministry of Roads and Urban Planning, asserted that Russia's excessive use of the Volga River's water was the cause of the Caspian Sea's water withdrawal.

According to the statements, the primary water source of the Caspian Sea is the Volga River, which flows into this sea. The Volga River provides 84 percent of the Caspian Sea's water. It is alleged that Russia's excessive use of the water from this river to enhance agriculture and the construction of water dams on this river have contributed to this issue.

Kazakhstan is also claimed to be experiencing a similar problem. In fact, a state of emergency has been declared in the port city of Aktav in Kazakhstan due to the receding water of the Caspian Sea. Russia has not yet provided a clear response to these allegations.

It is claimed that if Russia's current policies persist, the Caspian Sea will dry up within 70 years. According to Iranian experts, within 20 years, the Caspian Sea will lose half of its width, and within 10 years, dust storms will begin to appear in coastal areas. Indeed, it is alleged that the initial signs of these dust storms are already visible in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

The most significant agreement concerning the environmental preservation of the Caspian Sea is the Tehran Convention, signed on November 4, 2003, among Iran, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. According to this agreement, the signatory nations are obligated to safeguard the environment and ecosystem of the Caspian Sea. However, the accusations leveled by Iranian officials against Russia have prompted suspicions that Russia may be impeding the implementation of this agreement.

Nevertheless, some Iranian environmental experts argue that attributing the entire blame to Russia is not a scientific approach, and Iran's water management and policies have also played a role in the depletion of water from the Caspian Sea.

The repercussions of the Caspian Sea's water recession and the emergence of droughts in coastal areas will extend beyond environmental effects and adversely impact the operations of ports and docks crucial to the region's economy. In fact, the swift depletion of the Caspian Sea's water could render inactive and dysfunctional the ports of Aktau, Kuryk, and Atyrau in Kazakhstan; Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan; as well as Astrakhan and Makhachkala in Russia, all of which play pivotal roles in the economy of Central Asia.

This implies that transit routes and international corridors, pivotal in both regional economy and global trade, will suffer negative consequences. Indeed, this issue has begun to manifest in Turkmenistan, leading the Turkmen government to construct new ports as some of their ports have become non-operational.

For instance, as a result of the Caspian Sea's recession, maritime routes between Turkmenistan's Turkmenbashi and Khazar ports have ceased, prompting the Turkmen government to erect a new port to substitute the Khazar port in the Balkanabat province. A parallel challenge looms over Turkmenbashi port, renowned as the commercial hub of Turkmenistan.

In short, the Caspian Sea, considered one of Asia's significant seas and the world's largest lake, is experiencing a rapid decline in its water level, heightening the risk of it drying up. Indeed, droughts have begun to emerge along the Caspian Sea's shores.

While the drying of the Caspian Sea presents an environmental concern, it also carries the potential to profoundly impact regional economies and geopolitics. Iran holds Russia accountable for the Caspian Sea's recession, yet Russia has remained silent on the matter. Regardless of the cause, the Caspian Sea must not dry up for the well-being of the region's inhabitants and the destiny of future generations.