How to interpret Russian general’s assassination in the heart of Moscow

Kiev claimed responsibility for the assassination of Igor Kirillov, a top Russian general, who is the most senior military officer killed by Ukraine in the course of the ongoing war between the two Orthodox Slavic-majority nations.

Kirillov, who oversaw the Russian military’s radiological, chemical and biological department, previously accused the US and its allies of running dangerous labs as “a front for illegal military and biological research” in Ukrainian territory.

The Krillov assassination in the heart of Moscow several kilometres away from the Kremlin has sent shockwaves across Russian elite circles, suggesting that even Moscovites might not be safe from the killing sprees stemming from the Ukraine war. His assistant Ilya Polikarpov was also killed in the attack.

“The assassination in Moscow can be interpreted in several ways. One such interpretation is that Ukraine's ‘allies’ have realised that the regime change they seek in Moscow can only be achieved from within through ‘decapitation’ - of critical human security infrastructure - among other hybrid actions/active measures,” says Ecaterina Matoi, a scholar at the Middle East Political and Economic Institute (MEPEI).

Ukraine claims to kill as many as 19 Russian generals, but Russia disputes Kiev’s death toll of its generals. Overall, military analysts assess that even losing several generals in combat is a big deal for a military force and Russia has lost at least eight generals up to date, according to Western sources.

Kirillov's killing means that “the Ukrainian special services have a very extensive surveillance network within Russia. They are able to target top Russian military and government officials at their private residences. Russian military leaders are not safe in the rear areas of this conflict,” says Keith Darden, a professor of politics, governance and economics at American University.

Kirillov was killed a day after a Ukrainian court indicted him in absentia for being instrumental in Russia’s use of banned chemical weapons against Ukrainians. Kiev threatened more killings after the Kirillov assassination.

Spreading ‘terror’

“Obviously, one of the adjacent objectives is to spread terror among those Russian officials (military or otherwise) who know they may be next on an alleged assassination list,” Matoi tells TRT World, adding that the Moscow attack sends a message that “key Russian military generals are not safe anywhere.”

The Ukrainian killing of Kirillov is definitely “an escalation” in the Ukraine war, says Sergei Markov, a Russian political scientist, who advised President Vladimir Putin in the past, The “terrorist attack” on Kirillov can trigger Russia to target Ukrainian military and political leaders, according to Markov.

“We can see a big demand in Moscow now,” Markov tells TRT World, referring to harsh statements coming from Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and a Putin ally, who said that “everything must be done to destroy the perpetrators who are in Kiev.”

But Matoi expects a more measured response from Russia, which will strike Ukraine harder after the recent killing as Moscow will tighten security in sensitive areas for the state, increasing security measures across border areas, particularly, regions bordering Central Asian states.

According to Russian authorities, one of the suspects of the recent attack is from Uzbekistan, a Central Asian state, which was a former Soviet republic. The 29-year-old suspect was detained by Russia.

Despite Kiev’s attack near the Kremlin, Harden, who focuses on nationalism, state-building, and the politics of Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia, doubts that Moscow will escalate the war at this point as it is making progress on the battlefield in the Donbass.

Lionel Ingram, an expert on the Russian political system and a lecturer at University of New Hampshire, offered an assessment similar to Harden’s. “Russia has other serious issues at the moment that will deflect any focus on a response to this killing. They have not reacted strongly to other such events. Better, just replace the general and increase security,” Ingram tells TRT World.

Matoi also draws attention to the fact that the key Russian general’s killing happened a very short time after the fall of Syrian regime leader Bashar al Assad, an ally of Moscow, whose demise has been seen as a sign of diminishing influence of the Kremlin in the Middle East and elsewhere. Ukrainians helped opposition forces topple Assad, according to reports.

“It may have something to do with spreading or accentuating a feeling of insecurity, not only at the leadership level but also among the military fighting on the Ukrainian front, damaging their morale and inducing a feeling of mistrust among the population in the state's ability to provide the security,” she says, referring to possible ties between Assad’s fall and the Kirillov killing.

Why targeting Kirillov

Kirillov had been known for his statements on US-led biological labs in Ukrainian territories, accusing American Democratic lawmakers of funding bioweapon activities.

During a 2022 speech, Kirillov claimed that Metabiota, one of the key Pentagon contractors receiving support from Hunter Biden’s Rosemont Seneca Technology Partners, which is an investment fund, involved raising money for biolab projects in Ukraine. The UK and US media confirmed this account based on obtained emails. Hunter Biden is the son of the US president.

Kirillov was “an active speaker and agonizer of investigations about secret illegal American biological and chemical laboratories” for the creation of weaponry related to those labs in Ukrainian territories, says Markov. “That’s why Americans hit General Krillov,” says Markov, adding that a lot of people in Russia believe the assassination order was given by the US.

The US media labels accusations against Hunter Biden and the existence of US laboratories in Ukraine as conspiracy theories.

Harden suspects that Kirillov was targeted by the Ukrainians “in order to elicit a significant response from Russia” because Kiev “seems eager to have the war escalate” to gain greater US and European involvement for its war effort.

“Ukraine is taking more provocative and bolder actions now while Biden is still in office. The hope seems to be that if escalation takes place while Biden is in office, Trump will have his hands tied and not be able to withdraw US support for Ukraine,” Harden tells TRT World.

According to Matoi, Kirillov’s professional training and his critical military position has made him a persona non grata for Kiev's "allies" beyond Western accusations against the Russian general’s use of chemical munitions against Ukrainians.

“General Kirillov is of great importance in the context of the conflict in Ukraine in the light of the accusations that have been and still are hanging over Kiev and its allies with regard to the existence of the biological laboratories on Ukrainian territory because he was consistently and with the utmost interest following the subject,” she says.

Putin under pressure

Increasing fatal attacks on influential individuals like Kirillov and Darya Dugina, a nationalist Russian journalist and the daughter of Alexandr Dugin, who is one of the leading political and intellectual elites of Moscow, has made many “angry”, according to Markov.

Russian society is “critical” of their leaders “including Putin” that Moscow has shown no powerful response to “such terrorist attacks”, he says.

The recent attack has also increased anti-immigrant sentiment in Russia since the alleged attacker hailed from Uzbekistan, according to Russia. He also says that the deadly Crocus City Hall concert hall attack in Russia's Moscow region was orchestrated by Tajik nationals in March.

All this can increase anger across Russia against migrants particularly from Central Asian countries, forcing Moscow to change its immigration policy, he adds.