Israel struggles as new Syria disrupts old terror alliances

Since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, the transformation in Syria has had far-reaching effects on both global and regional powers. Among these affected countries is Israel.

Although Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated at a recent conference that Israel would remain neutral in the conflict because there is "no good side" in Syria, Israel has consistently taken sides in the Syrian civil war since its early years.

Through its "campaign between wars" strategy, Israel has carried out hundreds of strikes against Iranian and pro-Iranian militant targets in Syria.

However, alongside this policy, a quieter and less openly discussed approach has been Israel's support for the YPG/PKK terrorist organisation in northern Syria. Following the United States' policy of combating Daesh through the YPG/PKK-dominated SDF, Israel began providing support to the terror group in a similar context. But with the onset of a new era in Syria, will Israel stick to this policy?

For the past few weeks, Israel appears to be acting in a state of panic, as the emergence of a new Syria no longer offers the privileges Tel Aviv took for granted during the previous era.

The "devil it knows" is gone, and the "devil it doesn't know" has now taken power. This is precisely why, in recent days, the Israeli military has targeted strategic sites and advanced its troops closer to Damascus.

Such aggressive actions reveal that Israel is determined to prevent the long-anticipated turning point in Syria, 13 years in the making, from taking root. Instead, it seeks to sustain chaos, allowing it to maintain the policies it pursued under the Assad regime while undermining Syria's territorial integrity under the pretense of protection.

Losing a partner in Syria?

One issue highlighted by Saar last month was that Israel should support minorities, particularly the Druze and YPG/PKK, while advocating for a federal Syria in the future. Saar has made similar remarks on multiple occasions in recent weeks, and Israel has offered support to these groups in the past.

Back in 2019, in a rare public disagreement with then-US President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered humanitarian aid to the terrorist group during Türkiye's Peace Spring military operation in northern Syria.

Similarly, Tzipi Hotovely, who was Israel's deputy foreign minister at the time, acknowledged that Israel was assisting the group "through a range of channels." She further emphasised that the potential collapse of the YPG/PKK entity in northern Syria would be "a negative and dangerous scenario as far as Israel is concerned."

In 2022, an exclusive report from The Times of Israel revealed that the YPG/PKK-led SDF is allowing NGOs operating in areas under their control in Syria to use Israeli technology for water extraction.

Since 2017, Israeli experts have suggested that natural resources in YPG/PKK-controlled areas in Syria, particularly its oil, could support Israel's energy supply and be utilised in projects like constructing an oil pipeline through Jordan to Israel. They have also proposed that US military bases there could serve as an alternative to the Incirlik Air Base in Türkiye.

However, the current shape of Syria's political spectrum questions the effectiveness of this pro-PKK policy. From the early days of their march toward Damascus, anti-Assad armed groups successfully pushed back YPG/PKK forces, particularly in areas such as Tel Rifat. Following their capture of Damascus, they also regained control of critical cities like Manbij and Dayr az-Zor.

With the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump next month, it is likely—much like in 2019—that US troops will withdraw from Syria, significantly reducing support for the YPG. Since the Trump administration believes that the Daesh has been defeated, the YPG/PKK will find it increasingly difficult to secure US backing under this pretext.

No local legitimacy

Such a scenario has prompted both pro-Israel figures and individuals linked to the PKK/YPG to call for the continuation of US and Israeli support.

In parallel to this call, Roi Kais from Israel's public broadcaster KAN reported that Israeli officials had recently made contact with the group. Shortly thereafter, Israeli FM Saar confirmed these developments, signalling Israel's ongoing interest in maintaining ties with the YPG/PKK despite the shifting geopolitical landscape.

However, even some pro-Israeli organisations advising the US on this policy have pointed out that the YPG/PKK-dominated leadership of the SDF has alienated Arab tribes and other Kurdish organisations, such as the Kurdish National Council in Syria. This rift highlights the group's lack of legitimacy among the local population in Syria.

These developments, as emphasised by Israeli experts, underscore the impasse Israel faces regarding its support for this group. Persisting in such support reinforces Israel's perception as a threat to new Syria's unitary structure and territorial integrity.

Speaking to Israel Hayom on that regard, an Israeli diplomatic source said, "The picture is complex, and we cannot act there without American consent."