Israel, US torpedoed past peace deals. Will the new truce effort succeed?

A permanent ceasefire in Gaza appears to be a distant dream even after ten months of Israel’s brutal war on the Palestinian enclave, which has killed more than 40,000 people, mostly women and children.

That’s because Israel has repeatedly sabotaged every attempt by the UN and global powerbrokers over the last 300-plus days to stop its killing spree, which has taken the lives of nearly two percent of Gaza’s total population and injured almost 93,000 people.

The world is once again waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the latest diplomatic push by Washington as US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits Tel Aviv to broker a ceasefire deal.

“It is a decisive moment in the Gaza ceasefire talks,” a Reuters news agency report quoted Blinken as saying on Monday.

But if the past is any guide to the future, the fate of the latest diplomatic push will likely be no different from the outcome of many similar attempts to bring the bloodiest war of the 21st century to a permanent close.

The unceasing war and killings in Gaza have helped Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cling to power amid political headwinds on the domestic front.

Here’s a quick look at some of the major attempts—thwarted invariably by Tel Aviv—made by international stakeholders to bring peace to Gaza in the last ten months.

A brief breakthrough

The first ceasefire deal took place on November 22 last year, with Qatar and Egypt playing key roles as facilitators. The deal entailed that at least 50 Israeli hostages and scores of Palestinian detainees would be freed during a four-day truce.

The ceasefire deal – which was to take effect in stages and extended and broadened – resulted in a pause after seven weeks of relentless war and saw the release of 50 Israeli hostages in exchange for 150 Palestinian detainees from Israeli jails.

Israel initially said the truce could last beyond the initial four days as long as Hamas freed at least ten hostages every day. Hamas demanded the release of all Palestinian prisoners, but Tel Aviv turned it down.

Israel decided to do away with the temporary ceasefire after a week, with its military chief approving “evening operational plans” to continue the ground operation in Gaza for the “subsequent stages of the ground manoeuvre”.

Vetoed by US

Israel’s all-weather ally, the US, vetoed a UN Security Council (UNSC) proposal on December 8 that demanded an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.

Netanyahu welcomed the US vote against an urgent ceasefire, saying he “greatly” appreciated the “correct stance” by Washington.

The Israeli premier reiterated his vow that Israel would continue its fight until Hamas was eliminated, an unachievable goal that even the spokesperson for the Israeli army has expressed doubts about publicly.

Ceasefire plan: ‘Delusional’

Israel turned down yet another ceasefire plan—this time put forward by Hamas—in the second week of February. Rejecting the ceasefire plan, Netanyahu called the terms of the proposal “delusional”.

Hamas’s plan came as a counter-offer to a proposal put forward a week ago by Israel, the US, Qatar and Egypt. That ceasefire proposal reportedly involved a six-week truce during which Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners were to be exchanged.

In response, Hamas proposed a sweeping three-stage plan aimed at ending the war completely.

Claiming that an Israeli victory in Gaza was “within reach”, Netanyahu once again vowed to fight on until Hamas was “completely destroyed”.

Another resolution, another veto

The US vetoed yet another UN Security Council resolution that called for a ceasefire in Gaza—an act that Hamas said was tantamount to giving Israel the “green light” to carry out “more massacres”.

The US move on February 21 led to widespread global condemnation, with a spokesperson for the UN chief saying there needed to be an explanation on how the veto was used by the US.

Finally, a ‘yes’ vote by US

On March 25, a UNSC ceasefire resolution sailed through the 15-member body as the US decided to abstain rather than veto it.

However, the US later insisted that the resolution was “nonbinding”, practically undermining the objective of the proposal by showing its willingness to keep backing Israel’s devastating war on Gaza.

Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal

Hamas said on May 7 that it favoured an Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal. It accepted the ceasefire deal within hours of Israel ordering the evacuation of 100,000 Palestinians from the eastern neighbourhoods of Rafah—a move that signalled imminent invasion by Israel.

However, Israel insisted—yet again—that the proposed deal did not meet its core demands. Tel Aviv also declared that despite the olive branch extended by Hamas, its forces would keep pushing ahead with an assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

A glimmer of hope?

Qatar, Egypt and the US are currently trying to broker a new Gaza ceasefire that “narrows the gaps” between Israel and Hamas and is consistent with the principles set out by President Biden on May 31.

The mediators held discussions in Doha recently and will resume the talks in Cairo this week to finalise the proposal.

The May 31 roadmap formalised by the US to a ceasefire and the release of all hostages consists of three phases. The first phase is set to last for six weeks and will include a “full and complete ceasefire” along with a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza.

In addition, it will include the release of a number of hostages in exchange for “hundreds” of Palestinian prisoners. Palestinians will also be allowed to return to their homes in all areas of Gaza during the first phase of the proposed US roadmap.