Kazakhstan's BRICS pause shows middle power dilemma between US and Russia

Just days before the two-day BRICS summit convenes in the Russian city Kazan on October 22, Kazakhstan abruptly paused its application to join the bloc, despite receiving nods from Moscow and Beijing.

This sudden move shows how carefully middle powers caught between global players are navigating foreign policy challenges.

"Analysts in Europe and North America seem convinced that BRICS is a serious counterweight to Western alliances from the 'Global South,'" Sergey Domnin, a Kazakh economic expert tells TRT World. Kazakhstan knows that joining BRICS could strain its relationships with Western nations, which could affect investments and economic partnerships.

China and Russia, eager to expand BRICS - a group of major emerging economies set up in 2009 as a challenge to Western-dominated institutions - have been advocating for new members.

However, for nations like Kazakhstan, Türkiye, and Azerbaijan, joining BRICS could be perceived as pivoting away from the West, a geopolitical risk in light of de-globalisation and regional conflicts widening the gap between the West and Russia-China axis.

Kazakhstan hit a pause button

Kazakhstan’s decision to join BRICS reflects pragmatism. While the Central Asian country enjoys strong economic ties with both China and Russia, joining BRICS could compromise its position as a neutral state in global affairs. Last year, trade with the US surged by 30 percent, reaching $4.1 billion, while EU trade grew by nearly 6 percent to $45 billion in 2023. Although the US and separate EU countries are not Kazakhstan’s top trading partners, expanding beyond Russia and China is vital for its economic resilience.

By joining BRICS, Kazakhstan risks upsetting its delicate balance, placing it in the crosshairs of competing global interests. Instead, Kazakhstan’s membership in regional organisations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Eurasian Economic Union ensures that it can continue to cooperate with China, Russia and other member-states on regional issues without the need to join BRICS.

"Kazakhstan does not want to anger anyone or become a pawn in a zero-sum game between great powers," Domnin says.

But a last-minute change of mind on BRICS membership seems to have rubbed Russia the wrong way. Russia banned fruits and lentils from Kazakhstan just a day after, suggesting Moscow is reminding Astana of its influence.

Ultimately, the decision to join BRICS isn't just about economics; it's about strategic positioning in a world where alliances are fluid, and loyalties are tested.

Türkiye courts BRICS but keeps a foot in NATO

Türkiye's multi-alignment makes BRICS a potential option for the country.

Despite its NATO membership and aspirations to join the European Union, Türkiye has not hesitated to explore partnerships in the East. The country aims to become a key hub for gas exports from Russia and Central Asia. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration is also attracting Chinese electric carmakers to take advantage of Türkiye’s customs union with the EU, enhancing their market access. “Türkiye hopes to increase trading volumes with non-Western countries," says Bilgehan Ozturk, a foreign policy researcher at SETA, a think tank in Ankara.

At the 2018 BRICS summit in Johannesburg, Erdogan playfully suggested renaming the group to “BRICST” to include Türkiye, a proposal that may resurface at the summit in Kazan. If accepted, Türkiye would be the first NATO member in BRICS, seeking to challenge Western-dominated institutions like the World Bank and IMF. Membership would provide access to the BRICS New Development Bank, which has its own emergency reserve, and expand trade relationships.

"It's now undeniable that BRICS encompasses a significant portion of global economic activity, given their population and production capacity, and Türkiye doesn't want to miss it," he tells TRT World.

Joining BRICS would also allow Türkiye to trade in currencies other than the US dollar, reducing dependence on the US-led financial system and promoting a more multipolar world.

However, the group's leadership by China makes the US and the EU wary, seeing this as a potential gain for Beijing.

Aligning with BRICS carries risks. "If BRICS develops mechanisms for trading in national currencies, it might complicate our relations with the US," warns Ozturk.

Despite these challenges, Türkiye believes it can manage the complexities. "We don't see BRICS as a substitute for Western alliances but as a means to achieve greater balance," says Ozturk.

Azerbaijan's Strategic Moves

Azerbaijan, rich in oil and strategically located on the Caspian Sea, is also eyeing BRICS to expand its economic opportunities. As the leading economy in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan wants to tap into new markets but doesn't want to harm its relations with the European Union, a major buyer of its oil and gas.

By aligning with BRICS, Azerbaijan seeks to diversify its economy and lessen its dependence on oil and gas, leveraging its critical position along vital transport routes like the International North-South Transportation Corridor and the Middle Corridor.

Its pivotal location bestows significant leverage, presenting both an opportunity for influence and a risk of becoming a proxy battleground for major powers. "Today, Azerbaijan faces similar political issues as BRICS countries, like pressure from the West and threats of sanctions," Ilgar Velizade, an Azerbaijani political analyst tells TRT World. By working with BRICS nations, each a regional leader, Azerbaijan seeks to boost its international standing and economic prospects. Still, Azerbaijan wants to maintain a balanced foreign policy. "We continue to work with the Global North and G7 countries, aiming for balance in our region," Velizade says.