Nasrallah killing a ‘moment of use-it-or-lose-it’ for Hezbollah and Iran

The Middle East appeared to be inching closer to a full-blown war, with Hezbollah confirming the death of Hassan Nasrallah, its leader for almost three decades, in an Israeli strike on a Beirut suburb.

A top Israeli military commander indicated that the high-profile assassination was likely to follow more strikes against the Iran-backed group, which operates simultaneously as a political party in the Lebanese parliament and a militia firing rockets into northern Israel.

Security analysts agree that the killing of Nasrallah has come as a body blow to the Shiite militant group.

“Hezbollah’s leadership is in absolute disarray [after Nasrallah’s killing]. It has suffered setbacks in terms of its capabilities as well,” says Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

“But we don't know if they're depleted in a way that they have completely lost their deterrence or they still have some capabilities,” Vaez tells TRT World.

Nasrallah, who had led Hezbollah since the early 1990s, played a key role in forcing the Israeli forces into withdrawing from southern Lebanon in 2000 following a 22-year occupation.

The late Hezbollah leader formally declared the opening of a “front in southern Lebanon to support Palestinian resistance” after October 7 while vowing to continue the fight against Israel until the end of its war on Gaza.

Vaez says Hezbollah should mount resistance against Israel if it still retains any capacity to do so.

“This is probably a moment of use-it-or-lose-it for both Hezbollah and Iran.”

What’s next?

There are growing concerns about Israel starting a ground offensive against Hezbollah forces inside Lebanon as Tel Aviv is keen to capitalise on the post-October 7 support from Western nations.

In that case, fighters joining Hezbollah from inside and outside Lebanon will need to be organised into regular units—something that will not happen in a short time, says Tuba Yildiz, a Beirut-based security analyst.

“Even if Israel escalates the crisis, Hezbollah’s strong response will depend on the planning it conducts with Iran and the resistance axis,” Yildiz tells TRT World.

Ghoncheh Tazmini, the author of a new book titled Power Couple: Russian-Iranian Alignment in the Middle East, says that killing Nasrallah does not amount to a military victory for Israel.

“Hezbollah is a four-decade-old juggernaut forged in war and conflict. With its vast resources and colossal infrastructure, it cannot be easily dismantled,” she tells TRT World, noting that the crisis in the Middle East has already escalated and the latest attacks constitute “merely another chapter” in an ongoing and intensifying conflict.

All eyes on Iran

Hezbollah has taken a strong beating in recent weeks as Iran, which is the main backer of the Lebanese group, appears unwilling to escalate the situation.

Last week, thousands of walkie-talkies and pagers used by Hezbollah members and humanitarian workers detonated across southern Lebanon, killing and injuring scores.

The latest wave of Israeli attacks has killed over 700 people – including a large number of civilians – and injured thousands of others, most of them in indiscriminate Israeli bombardment in Lebanon.

But despite the disproportionate Israeli attacks, Hezbollah has so far avoided hitting Israeli population centres, leaving many to question its strategy and capability.

Vaez says Iran will try to stay out of the escalating crisis because its “interference” would only give Israel the chance to go after Tehran directly—something that could prove “suicidal” for the Iranian regime given Tel Aviv’s superior conventional capabilities.

Tazmini agrees with Vaez’s assessment.

Iran is going to exercise “strategic patience” as its rulers must weigh what serves their national interests: a full-fledged regional war may not align with Iran’s new president’s “more moderate” political platform, she says.

However, Tehran’s overall support for resistance, which aligns with its quest for political and military influence, will continue.

“Hence, Iran will continue to express solidarity and provide political and material support to Hezbollah and ensure that they remain a predominant force in Southern Lebanon,” she says.

Bystander: The West

It’s been almost a year since Israel started its war on Gaza, killing over 41,500 Palestinians. Regardless of formal condemnation of civilian deaths, major Western nations have stood by Israel in its genocidal war on Gaza.

But Yildiz says that the Western powers seem relatively more assertive in their calls for de-escalation of the Israel-Lebanon conflict.

Yet a lack of concrete steps thus far by the Western bloc has given Israel more freedom of action, she says.

On the other hand, factors such as the presence of Druze and Christians in Lebanon’s social structure are causing concern among countries like France, she says.

As a result, diplomatic activity from Europe on the issue of Lebanon has accelerated.

For example, Belgium’s deputy prime minister Petra de Sutter said she was “shocked” by the toll from Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. “492 lives lost in Lebanon. +1600 injured. Tens of 1000s were ordered to flee their homes. In 1 day,” she wrote on X.

Global leaders led by UN human rights chief Volker Turk have also called for restraint from all sides to de-escalate the situation.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Lebanese counterpart Abdallah Bou Habib that China firmly supported Lebanon in safeguarding its sovereignty and security and strongly condemned violations after Israel’s large-scale air strike.

Wang said China would continue to stand on the “side of justice and on the side of Arab brothers, including Lebanon”.

However, Tazmini says she does not believe that global bodies will intervene in any substantive way.

“I find it unlikely the US military or intelligence agencies were unaware of Israel’s plans,” she says while referring to the assassination of Nasrallah in an air strike at Hezbollah’s headquarters in Dahiyeh in the south of Beirut.

What’s Israel’s end-game?

Despite its much-touted advanced technological capabilities, Israel’s willingness to cause large-scale civilian casualties shows non-combatant deaths are a feature of its war strategy.

Israel’s infamous Dahiya Doctrine, which makes no distinction between armed militants and civilians, is named after an eponymous Beirut suburb where it was first used in the 2006 war.

Yildiz says Israel is trying to establish a “completely secure zone” on its northern border—for which Hezbollah’s military presence in the region needs to be eliminated.

Hezbollah has so far refused to retreat, she says. But the vulnerability of Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiye near Beirut and the death of Nasrallah might push the armed group to consolidate its position in Southern Lebanon, she adds.

“This will be the main reason for the crisis to grow.”

Israel has been waging full-fledged attacks against Hamas and Hezbollah for months on end. Yet Tel Aviv “understands that such attacks cannot fully eliminate” the armed resistance against the decades of Israeli occupation of Palestinian land, says Tazmini.

“It seems Israel’s military and intelligence apparatus may be aiming to provoke a larger confrontation, potentially drawing Iran and the US into the conflict,” she says.