Pakistan's elections: Candidates, public sentiment and what is at stake

An estimated 127 million people are voting on Thursday in Pakistan’s 12th parliamentary elections – a contentious democratic affair held under the shadow of an economic crisis, military intervention, and internal strife.

The eve of the election saw two political offices in southwestern Pakistan bombed, resulting in the deaths of at least 30 people.

Forty-four political parties are competing for 266 seats in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, while an additional 70 seats are reserved for women and minorities.

Following the election, the newly-elected parliament will select a prime minister. If no party secures a majority, the largest party in terms of assembly seats can form a coalition government.

Here are some facts about the primary political figures vying to lead Pakistan.

Who is running?

Three main parties are exerting influence: the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and the Pakistan People's Party (PPP).

Imran Khan

The former prime minister, currently in detention since August and barred from political involvement due to numerous corruption and criminal charges, is facing the election season behind bars.

Despite allegations and legal ramifications, the ex-cricket star maintains his innocence, attributing his predicament to strained relations with the country's influential military, particularly evident during the events preceding a no-confidence vote in 2022.

The military refutes any interference in political affairs.

Nonetheless, Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party is pursuing an unconventional campaign strategy, leveraging social media and clandestine outreach efforts.

Following the election commission's ruling disqualifying the party from participation and revoking its emblematic cricket bat symbol, party members have been registered as independent candidates.

Observers suggest that Khan, aged 71, retains a significant support base, with affiliated candidates likely to secure votes, albeit insufficient to secure a government majority.

Despite his assurance that independent candidates won't align with other parties, the allure of political alliances post-election remains considerable.

His legal team is actively pursuing appeals against his sentences, the lengthiest being a 14-year imprisonment term.

Nawaz Sharif

Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif is a leading candidate to assume leadership in the country, having resolved a longstanding dispute with Pakistan's influential military, analysts say.

The 74-year-old head of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and three-time former prime minister returned from a self-imposed exile in the United Kingdom late last year.

Despite contesting the previous election from jail, courts overturned his corruption convictions, and a lifetime ban from politics was lifted. His party has indicated his ambition to serve as prime minister once again, aiming to address the nation's economic challenges and curb inflation.

However, uncertainties arise regarding his health condition and readiness to lead a government in the event that his party fails to secure a decisive majority and must form a coalition.

Maryam Nawaz Sharif

Nawaz's daughter holds a significant position within the PML-N party and has been groomed by her father to succeed him politically. She currently serves as the party's senior vice president.

Maryam, aged 50, faced imprisonment alongside her father just prior to the 2018 elections on corruption allegations, which were subsequently reversed.

Shehbaz Sharif

Nawaz's younger sibling, Shehbaz, assumed leadership of a coalition government for 16 months subsequent to Imran Khan's removal in 2022, until the dissolution of parliament, at which point a caretaker administration assumed control in August in preparation for national elections.

Aged 72, Shehbaz Sharif previously held the position of chief minister in Punjab, Pakistan's most populous province.

He played a crucial role in navigating Pakistan through a financial crisis last year by negotiating with the International Monetary Fund to secure a bailout package after prolonged and challenging discussions.

The precise role Shehbaz will undertake upon his elder brother's return to Pakistan remains uncertain.

However, he is perceived to maintain closer ties with Pakistan's influential military establishment than Nawaz and has historically served as a mediator between the two entities - a role that will be pivotal should his party emerge victorious and form the government.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari

Bilawal, who served as the country's foreign minister until a transitional government assumed power late last year, is the son of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated during an election campaign in 2007 when Bhutto Zardari was a teenager.

His father, Asif Ali Zardari, held the presidency of Pakistan from 2008 to 2013.

At 35, Bhutto Zardari has spearheaded one of the most prominent election campaigns, traversing the nation and emphasising his commitment to harnessing the significant youth demographic and mitigating the repercussions of climate change, particularly pronounced in his native southern Sindh province.

Although unlikely to secure an outright victory, his party's potential influence could be pivotal, given the absence of any single party poised to clinch a parliamentary majority.

What are the main issues?

The forthcoming administration faces an extensive agenda, including economic revitalisation, fostering better ties with the neighbouring Taliban-led Afghanistan, and addressing deteriorating infrastructure and persistent power shortages.

Pakistan has relied on financial assistance to bolster its foreign reserves and stave off default, with the International Monetary Fund and allies such as China and Saudi Arabia providing billions of dollars in funding.

Despite a $3B bailout approved by the IMF last July, Pakistan faces ongoing challenges, including high inflation projected at around 24 percent and an increase in poverty levels.

Pakistanis also grapple with soaring living costs, enduring gas outages and prolonged electricity blackouts. The persistent power crisis remains unresolved by successive governments.

Once more, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, commonly known as the Pakistani Taliban, are engaged in conflict with the aim of toppling the government. In Balochistan province in the southwest, where the Pakistani Taliban are active, Baloch separatists have been conducting a prolonged insurgency to secure independence and gain a larger portion of resources.

Will it change anything?

Many Pakistanis, tired of years of political discord and poor living conditions, express scepticism about seeing any change following this election.

Beyond addressing nearly two years of political turbulence, the primary focus of this election is on establishing a new, resilient government capable of stabilising an economy in turmoil for Pakistanis.

Approximately 40 percent of the populace resides below the poverty line, inflation has surged to over 30 percent, and recent polling indicates that around 70 percent of Pakistanis perceive a deteriorating economic situation.

Given the widespread dissatisfaction and divisions, forming a robust coalition committed to enacting substantial reforms in Pakistan will pose a significant challenge.