Reformist or conservative? Iran’s fate lies in the hands of weary voters

Iranian presidential election is set for a runoff on Friday, with reformist Masoud Pezeshkian facing Saeed Jalili, a hardliner, to decide who gets to lead the Shia-majority country in tumultuous times for the region.

The June 26 election was inconclusive, as none of the candidates won more than 50 percent of the vote, which is essential for a successful contender to claim the presidency.

But what surprised Iran watchers was the high number of votes secured by Pezeshkian, who got 42.4 percent of votes, ahead of Jalili’s 38.6 percent.

The election was called after the death of former President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May. Tens of thousands of Iranians had attended his funeral, and anyone who would seen the throngs of people would have thought that a sympathy vote would go to a hardliner like Jalili.

Analysts believe Pezeshkian has a better chance of winning the second round.

“Pezeshkian is a leftist. The economic situation is challenging in Iran right now, and most of those who voted for him came from the working class,” says Fatima Karimkhan, a Tehran-based journalist.

Oil producer Iran’s economy has been battered by US-led Western sanctions for years, leading to bouts of protests against inflation and shortage of goods.

“Add to that the fact that the country needs to reconsider its foreign policy. A candidate who speaks for the working class and promises to reduce the tension between Iran and other countries has excellent potential to win the election,” Karimkhan tells TRT World.

Ghoncheh Tazmini, an Iranian-Canadian political analyst and the author of Khatemi’s Iran: The Islamic Republic and the Turbulent Path to Reform, also says that Pezeshkian can win the runoff “because Iran is in need of a forward-thinking leader who understands the need for the state to adapt to the calls from the populace.”

“His repeated promises to bring in internet freedom, and ensure free speech at universities, along with an untainted corruption record, distinguish him from other candidates,” Tazmini tells TRT World.

Unlike Jalili, who is ethnically Persian and a well-known hardliner, Pezeshkian is an unusual non-Persian candidate with an ethnic Turk father and mother.

Pezeshkian served as the minister of health and medical education under former President Mohammed Khatami. Both Khatami and Hassan Rouhani, another former president, supported Pezeshkian.

The reformist candidate has long been both a critic of Tehran’s oppressive measures on political dissent and an advocate for minority rights. He also criticised the government’s handling of Mahsa Amini’s death under police custody, an incident which provoked nationwide protests.

While Tazmini and Karimkhan see increasing prospects for Pezeshkian’s eventual victory, a former top Iranian official with close ties to the country’s ruling establishment, thinks otherwise. He says that the reformist leader did not get the most votes in the first round, considering the division in the hardline vote.

If analysts look at the total votes, it’s clear that other conservative candidates, who more or less belong to Jalili’s school of thought, altogether received “much more” votes than Pezeshkian, the official said, requesting anonymity.

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the parliament with close ties to Iranian Revolutionary Guards, claimed 3,38 million votes, nearly a third of what Jalili received, while Mostafa Pourmohammadi, a conservative cleric, received more than 200,000 votes. Ghalibaf reiterated his support for Jalili in Friday’s runoff.

All eyes on the turnout

At only 40 percent, the first round saw the worst election turnout since the 1979 revolution, hinting at growing frustration with the way Tehran’s Shia clerical elites rule the country, experts say.

Lower voter turnout undermines the credibility of the Iranian political system because “voter apathy is often a reflection of unresolved domestic grievances,” says Tazmini, the Iranian-Canadian political analyst.

A moderate candidate like Pezeshkian increases his appeal among the people when he talks about the pressing issues that concern them, she says.

This means if Pezeshkian is able to persuade those Iranians who previously boycotted the elections to come to the ballot boxes to vote, then he will have more chances to win, says Tazmini.

“His success depends on the participation of the middle class, youth, and the silent majority who have shown discontent with economic corruption and social restrictions by largely staying home in the last three national elections for parliament and presidency.”

In the 2021 presidential election, voter turnout was nearly 49 percent, showing a decrease in Iranians' interest in the process. In the March parliamentary election, turnout was also low at 40.6 percent.

“History shows when the number of participants is higher, reformists have more chances to win,” says Karimkhan.

“Jalili is a hardliner with a terrible history of negotiations with Western countries. Right now, because the economic situation is challenging and the government needs to negotiate, he doesn't have a great chance to win if voter participation exceeds 50 percent.”

Jalili was a former deputy foreign minister for European and American affairs and was Iran’s top nuclear negotiator from 2007 to 2013.

Western negotiators found Jalili’s diplomatic skills frustrating as he loved to talk about “the history of Islam and Iran” rather than the subject in question, according to Robert J. Einhorn, a former American diplomat. “We learned a lot of history,” he said.

Due to this fact, hardliners’ primary strategy is “to reduce the number of voters” because they have a better chance of winning in a scenario with low voter turnout, says Karimkhan.

But many Iranians do not want to see a repeat of the rule of the late Raisi administration, she says.

While Karimkhan expressed concerns about the trustworthiness of polls, she still thinks the reformists have a good chance of winning the runoff on Friday.

The former Iranian official believes if most reformist supporters come to vote, it might benefit Pezeshkian, but he doubts it will happen.

Are hardliners panicking?

Tazmini says Iranian hardliners have entered a state of panic with Pezeshkian’s good showing in the first-round results, which puts him four points ahead of Jalili.

Social liberties have not been the main focus of the Iranian establishment due to the prevailing international security environment and regional dynamics from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza to conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, says Tazmini.

Tehran’s emphasis has been on “self-preservation” and its survival, she says.

“Deteriorating relations with the West, the collapse of the nuclear deal, escalating tensions with Israel, and Western-supported efforts for regime change have compelled the Iranian regime to adopt a more conservative, security-focused political culture. Strategic and security concerns dominate the agenda, pushing social freedoms and women’s rights to the background,” she says.