Sahel showdown: How Türkiye can help NATO with Russian and Chinese advances

In Africa's Sahel region, which expands from Senegal in the west, right across to Chad in the east, competition has been heating up between the Western bloc, including NATO, and the Russia/China axis.

The area that spans across central Africa has abundant underground natural resources. Its strategic geopolitical position underscores its importance, leading to a scramble among global actors for regional influence.

Historically subjected to economic and cultural exploitation under the brutal French colonial rule, region has recently witnessed a resurgence in anti-imperialist sentiment, bolstered by Pan-Africanist rhetoric.

New regimes have successfully mobilised local populations by exploiting anti-Western sentiments and fostering ethnic awareness, national consciousness, and historical grievances.

This has manifested in the form of military coups led by anti-Western juntas, resulting in significant governance changes. For example, the US faced growing opposition to its presence in the region and had to step back.

After the military coup in Niger in July 2023, despite initially refraining from labelling it a coup and hoping to cooperate with the new regime, Washington was compelled to close its drone base in Agadez, valued at approximately $100 million, and withdraw around 1,000 troops at the request of the new leadership.

Similarly, France had to withdraw its military presence from the Central African Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso due to the unilateral termination of military cooperation agreements.

Amid the upheaval, Russia and China have seized on the opportunity to expand their military, geopolitical, and economic presence in the Sahel.

This development poses new and significant concerns for NATO in the region, as these actors are rapidly filling the strategic vacuum left by the retreating Western powers.

The competition over the region's resources and strategic location is intensifying, raising the stakes for global geopolitical balance.

Rise of Russia and China

A shift in alliances paints a concerning picture for NATO. The instability and security threats in the Sahel region challenge NATO's efforts to cooperate with regional partners to combat terrorism and illegal activities.

The diminishing influence of France and the US complicates NATO's ability to achieve these goals. Meanwhile, the increasing influence of Russia and China in the region weakens NATO's strategic position in Africa, potentially undermining its global security architecture.

In recent years, the Russia-China axis has increasingly focused on the Sahel region, filling the void left by the West and posing a political, military, and economic challenge to NATO. Moscow and Beijing have leveraged anti-Western sentiments, Western missteps, regional government failures, and the instability to bolster their political and economic presence.

Russia has crafted a positive image in the Sahel by utilising entities such as the Wagner Group and countering Western efforts to isolate it. For instance, in 2017, Russia deepened its cooperation with the Central African Republic by sending arms and military trainers to use against rebel groups.

Wagner acts as a primary agent for the Kremlin in the country, providing security, enhancing Russia's political and diplomatic influence, and securing access to lucrative mining assets. Similarly, Russia supports military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso with security assistance, diplomatic backing, and information operations.

China, on the other hand, has chosen to increase its influence in the region through economic means. Beijing invests in the region's underground and mineral resources, including gold, uranium, oil, bauxite, and other rare metals. These strategic investments and infrastructure projects not only enhance China's influence but also promote economic development.

Particularly notable are China's investments in uranium mining in Niger, which are crucial for Beijing's nuclear energy needs. In Sudan, Chinese oil companies contribute to economic growth by boosting oil production.

In summary, Russia's and China's growing presence in the Sahel limits the influence of NATO member states and creates resistance against global isolation efforts. China's economic investments boost the economic independence of Sahel countries while challenging NATO's strategic interests in the region.

This situation has the potential to reduce NATO's influence and provide a foundation for Moscow and Beijing to solidify their global impact.

Türkiye's rising role

Although the decreasing influence of France and the US in the Sahel has led to a strategic weakness for NATO on the African continent, Türkiye's growing presence in the region presents an opportunity for NATO to compensate for this strategic loss.

Türkiye's involvement in the Sahel is creating new opportunities for regional countries and NATO.

Ankara recently enhanced its political, economic, and military ties with the Sahel region. It has become one of the region's major arms exporters, strengthening military cooperation.

This has helped improve the security capacities of countries such as Chad, Burkina Faso and Nigeria, and established Türkiye as a reliable partner in the region.

Economically, Türkiye's investments and humanitarian projects through organisations like TIKA, the Yunus Emre Institute, and the Maarif Foundation aim to improve the quality of life for local populations.

These organisations carry out significant projects in education, health, infrastructure, and cultural cooperation, providing tangible benefits to daily life in the region.

Ankara's approach to the Sahel has been well-received by regional governments and populations. One key reason for this is Türkiye's lack of colonial history and colonial intent, in contrast to Western partners.

It demonstrates a win-win approach that benefits the region, which has increased trust in its involvement. Türkiye's historical and cultural ties also allow the region's people to view it from a different perspective than Western countries.

In conclusion, this strategic approach offers a significant opportunity for NATO. The weakening influence of France and the US, combined with the rising presence of Russia and China in the region, has led to a loss of NATO's strategic advantage in Africa.

However, Türkiye's growing regional role provides NATO a platform to offset this loss. As a NATO ally, Ankara can support NATO's strategic interests as to counterbalance the Russia-China axis. This development could help the region and contribute to its stability.