Three years since Kabul fell: Is it time to recognise the Taliban?

The United Nations, its member states and regional organisations, are set to meet in Doha, Qatar, on February 18-19 to discuss the future of Afghanistan where relief groups warn that a large number of citizens need international assistance.

The meeting is similar to what took place last year but it will see a new participant this time - Afghanistan’s Taliban government, which took control of Kabul in August 2021.

Inviting the group, which is still struggling for formal recognition as the ruler of Afghanistan, to the meeting signals a shift in the attitude of the international community.

On January 29, officials from China, Russia, and Iran as well as India and Indonesia met in Kabul for The Afghanistan Regional Cooperation Initiative, marking a crucial step in the Taliban's diplomatic engagements.

Lately, the Taliban have engaged in regional discussions with key players like Norway, which spends substantial sums on developmental aid for poor countries.

“After the withdrawal of international forces, most of the countries, especially the West, have turned a deaf ear to the crises in Afghanistan,” Irfan Yar, counter-terrorism analyst and founder of the Afghanistan Security Institute, told TRT World.

“Isolating Afghanistan is neither in the interest of the Afghan people nor that of the international community; engaging with the Taliban officially will facilitate more channels of communication, thus leading to higher chances of cooperating with the international community.”

China, which has not formally recognised the Taliban government, has nevertheless engaged Kabul diplomatically. On January 31, Beijing received Taliban government’s ambassador Asadullah Bilal Karimi who presented his credentials to Chinese President Xi Jinping.

This nuanced diplomatic dance raises pertinent questions about the evolving dynamics where the international community is flirting with the idea of recognising the Taliban government, experts say.

A difficult diplomatic route

“I do not feel, despite their ongoing relations, that many regional capitals are willing to grant the Taliban explicit recognition as of yet,” says Ibraheem Bahiss, an analyst with Crisis Group's Asia Program.

“However, the increasing normalisation between Kabul and regional capitals means that most regional capitals are not allowing the issue of non-recognition to hinder their relations with Kabul.”

In the most likely scenario, the Taliban's government might gain recognition in the long term from regional capitals, but that will likely be an implicit recognition, hinging on the evolving ties with Kabul, Bahiss added.

As the UN prepares for the upcoming Doha meeting, the agenda features contentious issues such as the appointment of a special UN envoy for Afghanistan, a move that has been rejected by the Taliban, and the development of a strategy for lasting peace.

The appointment of the special UN envoy, according to insiders, is aimed at giving the international community access to Afghanistan irrespective of the Taliban's formal recognition.

However, the spotlight remains on the complexities surrounding the diplomatic acceptance of the Taliban government.

The Taliban had protested for not being invited to several international events including the environmental summit COP28 even though experts warn severe droughts have caused a food crisis in Afghanistan.

The Taliban say any meeting involving Afghanistan without their participation is ineffective and counterproductive.

Attempting to solidify their power and legitimacy, the Taliban has been rebuilding dams across the country, began work on rail projects and constructions of roads for trade with China via the Wakhan Corridor in Badakhshan province and deployed drones to oversee water projects.

Besides China, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also actively engaging with the Taliban's leadership. Emirati companies have secured contracts to run Afghanistan's airports.

On February 1, India's Ministry of External Affairs also acknowledged engagement with the Taliban but said it maintains cautious stance on the question of recognition.

Taliban representatives have also visited Indonesia and Uzbekistan, while Kabul has received visits from Indian, Pakistani, EU, and UN officials since the group came to power in Afghanistan in 2021.

Taliban have a lot to do

Paul Fishstein, a non-resident fellow at Center on International Cooperation at New York University, said there is no clear consensus on the recognition of the Taliban government, but if there is one, it is likely to lean towards increased 'engagement' rather than outright recognition in the near future.

“My own view would be for more engagement but not recognition, and also for not letting the issues of human rights and representative governance fall from the radar,” says Fishstein, who is also an ex-Supervisory Research Analyst at Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) Lessons Learned Program.

The UN special representative for Afghanistan said in June last year to the UN Security Council that achieving recognition is extremely challenging for the Taliban as long as Afghan women and girls struggle for equal rights.

Some analysts say that there are various ways to address critical issues such as girls' education with the Taliban without formally recognising the group's government. They propose using this engagement as a leverage point to press for women's rights.

“As long as the Taliban do not show in practice that they respect human rights for all Afghans, including those who disagree with them on certain or many issues, the Taliban should not be rewarded with official diplomatic recognition,” says Thomas Ruttig, co-founder and co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network.

“There are plenty of options - although not easy and unproblematic - to engage them on vital issues below that level, for the sake of the Afghan people stuck in multiple crises.”

Disengaging with the Taliban can prove to be counterproductive. For instance the US hasn’t been able to achieve its diplomatic goals after isolating Iran, North Korea, Syria and the Houthis, experts say.

Irfan Yar, the counter-terrorism analyst, said the US should now understand that not everyone will “bow to its military and economic might”.

In 2024, over 50 percent of Afghanistan's population will need humanitarian aid. The nation faces a protracted and severe humanitarian crisis, marked by the enduring impact of four decades of conflict, poverty, recurrent disasters, and economic decline, affecting millions of Afghans.

So despite the varying global perspectives, the undeniable fact remains that the Taliban is the current government of Afghanistan.

“Materialistically and constructively engaging with the Taliban can lead to a better Afghanistan where human rights, including women's rights, can be improved,” says Irfan Yar.