Trump or Harris: Which US leader do countries prefer?

World leaders are carefully evaluating the potential paths the US might take after next week’s presidential election in the world’s biggest military and economic power.

From the raging wars in Gaza and Ukraine to escalating trade-related conflicts, the outcome of the contest between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is expected to have a far-reaching impact on major global issues in the coming years.

Some world leaders have subtly signalled their preferences, while others have remained publicly neutral, cognisant of the need to maintain strong ties with whichever administration takes power in Washington.

TRT World spoke to foreign affairs experts from different parts of the world to know how global powers view the hotly contested election in the US.

Moscow prefers Trump

Moscow considers the return of Donald Trump to power in the US will improve bilateral ties.

The main reason for Russia – engaged in a full-fledged war in neighbouring Ukraine – preferring Trump to Harris is that the former president maintained warm relations with President Vladimir Putin during his first term at the White House.

Putin has welcomed Trump’s desire to find a solution to the Ukrainian conflict. Speaking at the Brics summit in Kazan, Putin said: “How Russian-American relations will develop after the election will depend on the US. If they are open, then we will also be open. And if they don't want it, then fine.”

Analysts say a Trump victory will pave the way for the revival of diplomatic corridors between the two nations—something that, in turn, could lead to a negotiated settlement of the conflict in Ukraine.

In particular, a rapprochement between Mosco and Washington will help put an end to sanctions, or penalties that the US – along with the UK, European Union, Australia, Canada and Japan – has imposed on Russian individuals and businesses since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

In particular, about $350 billion or half of Russia’s total foreign exchange reserves remain inaccessible to Moscow because of the Western sanctions.

China, the silent observer

Asian countries like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are keenly watching the US elections to gauge potential policy shifts that could affect regional security and economic stability.

But within China, the soft power of the US is being “quickly eroded” by the vitriol and suspicion seeded by Trump’s election campaign eight years ago.

“Among officials, one can perceive they are rather clear-minded that each candidate poses risks, many of the same risks,” Josef Gregory Mahoney, professor of politics and international relations at Shanghai’s East China Normal University, tells TRT World.

But the Chinese government is not a monolith, he adds. Different sections within the government may see one candidate or the other as a better fit for their specific missions. But there’s no clear consensus on who’s best for China overall, he adds.

As for the broader Chinese public, including business leaders, Trump appears to be the preferred candidate “by a wide margin”.

They believe Trump is a better fit for China, insomuch as his policies were “less confrontational” than Biden’s. They are also likely to believe that Trump caused “more harm to the US” than China.

“But most in the Chinese government are refusing to get their hopes up. While they’ll make positive overtures after the election, these will be rather general until the new US administration signals real openings for improving relations,” he adds.

Silent spectator: India

India’s stance on the US presidential election appears to be cautious. Prime Minister Narendra Modi seems to have hedged his bets by refraining from openly endorsing either candidate.

This is in stark contrast with New Delhi’s enthusiastic support for Trump’s re-election campaign four years ago.

In recent years, US-India relations have strengthened due to shared interests in balancing China’s influence and promoting economic and defence ties.

Harris is expected to continue Biden’s policies on defence and climate. However, her potential focus on human rights and democracy, along with her Russia policy, may introduce some tension to the US-India bilateral relations.

India maintains close ties with Russia and has refused to condemn Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine. Delhi has also faced US criticism for domestic policies that challenge democratic norms.

In contrast, Trump is likely to adopt a more transactional approach with India that aligns with his so-called America First policy.

Trump’s inclination towards easing tensions with Russia and his supportive stance towards Modi’s leadership style may also reduce friction on certain bilateral issues like trade and democracy.

For Europe, it’s Harris all the way

Europe is getting increasingly anxious as the US presidential race becomes tighter by the day. Trump has made no secret of his disdain for NATO, a military alliance between the US and major Western European nations.

A Trump win can potentially upend many EU policies, from trade flows and industrial subsidies to digital oversight and antitrust probes.

In addition, his different position on the Russia-Ukraine war means the Western-backed war effort against Moscow will be at serious risk in the case of his victory in next week’s presidential election.

The US is currently one of the major financial backers of Ukraine in its war against Russia. A foreign aid package passed by Congress earlier this year set aside $60 billion for Ukraine. Trump campaigned against the foreign aid package, insisting that it be structured as a loan, not a grant.

According to David McAllister, a member of the European Parliament who heads the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs, a second Trump presidency will put transatlantic relations to the test once again.

“During his time in office, Trump was not interested in strengthening the transatlantic partnership. On the contrary: these were four challenging years. We have learned that Trump's guiding foreign policy principle is unpredictability,” he tells TRT World.

“Nevertheless, we should find a way to keep ties as close as possible whatever the outcome of the elections in order to fireproof the EU-US relationship,” he said.

Same old, same old for the Arabs

Many leaders from Arab countries have historically valued stability and alignment with US interests.

However, the Biden administration’s strong support for Israel during the Gaza war has generated widespread disapproval among Arab governments and communities. They view the current US stance as counterproductive to regional stability.

On the one hand, Trump adopted a “transactional approach” and helped Israel normalise relations with Arab countries like the UAE and Bahrain through the Abraham Accords during his first term.

But on the other hand, his policies also deepened resentment in the Muslim world as the US moved its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2017.

Still, Trump’s inclination to reduce American military involvement in global disputes is seen by some in the region as preferable.

Biden, however, is recognised for his firm support for Israel, which has strained the US relationship with the Arab world.