Trump vs Biden: How much of a factor will age play in the US election?

They’re known as much for their gaffes as they are for their policies, but now it seems Joe Biden and Donald Trump may be risking their political futures if questions surrounding their ages and memory lapses continue.

At 81 years old, Biden is the oldest sitting president in the United States. Former president, Trump, his contender for the top spot, is, at 77, just four years his junior. Together, they’re expected to become the most elderly major party contenders in American history.

This, for many Americans, has become a cause for concern, especially as the men seem to stumble from one blunder to the next with increasing regularity.

Earlier this year, Robert Hur, former special counsel at the Department of Justice, described Biden in a report as "an elderly man with poor memory."

The report into Biden’s handling of highly classified documents when he was a private citizen noted that he could not recall the exact period when he served as vice president to Barack Obama and that he struggled to remember exactly when his late son, Beau, died.

Biden refuted Hur’s comments at a hastily held press conference - only to refer to Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah el Sisi as the leader of Mexico.

Trump is also not without his fair share of bloopers. He recently confused Nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi and suggested that Biden threatened to lead the US into World War Two.

The list is far from exhaustive and has sparked amusement among some. But for invested parties, namely voters and those impacted by US policies, the two men’s apparent disorientation is somewhat disquieting.

A March poll found that 73 percent of all registered voters fear Biden is too old to stand for re-election in the forthcoming presidential election, while 42 percent think the same of Trump.

But experts point out that occasional memory lapses are quite normal as people age, and this does not necessarily impact judgement or decision-making abilities. In other words, a few faux pas do not mean people are incapable of doing their jobs.

Speaking to TRT World, Tara Spires-Jones, a professor of neuroscience at the University of Edinburgh, said brain shrinkage is common as we age, and the part of the brain that connects neurons together will be affected.

"Our knowledge base continues to grow as we age and our vocabulary is still good. But the speed in which our brain can process things and solve problems goes down. A lot of us will have subtle memory problems, for example, that moment when you walk into a room and can't remember why you're there."

However, she added that this "wouldn't necessarily, in my experience, impact everything about your brain to impair your judgement."

Currently, there is no medical evidence to suggest that Biden shows any signs of dementia. Notably, he has also never quite lost the stutter he suffered from as a child. Therefore, part of his unusual way of speaking is due to the developmental speech issue he has had all his life, and not necessarily his age.

This, however, has not stopped Trump from weaponising Biden’s cognitive shortcomings for his political own ends, referring to him as "Sleepy Joe," claiming he is not fit for office and describing him as a "mental basket case."

Critics say these remarks are ironic, coming from a man whose own mental state has been the subject of constant speculation. Trump even has a family history of dementia, as his father suffered from Alzheimer's disease for years.

John Owens, professor of American government and politics at London’s Westminster University, points out that both men also have access to the best healthcare in the world.

Speaking to TRT World, he added, "The fact is, the risk of death and dementia increases exponentially with age. However, while Biden has disclosed his medical records, Trump has not, at least to the same extent. He is also overweight whereas Biden is not. The bottom line is, it helps Biden that Trump is also old."

Unease about Biden seemed to reach a fever pitch following Hur's report, but appears to have calmed down for now, following his forceful performance at the recent State of the Union address.

Christopher Phelps, an American politics expert at the University of Nottingham, told TRT World the speech could have confirmed that Biden was deteriorating - but instead it did the opposite.

"He delivered it with vigour and humour and was persuasive in his comportment. It was generally deemed a triumph, so since then I think the edge is off this age issue."

Age in governance

Trump and Biden aren't the only elderly politicians in US office.

Concerns have been raised for years about the fortitude of congressional leaders including California Senator Dianne Feinstein, who died in office at the age of 90 years old last year, as well as 82-year-old Mitch McConnell, who suffered from speaking lapses last summer.

In fact, the average age of those sitting in Congress is, at 58, higher than the median age of 38.8 years in the US, according to the US Census Bureau, with four members being between 85 and 89.

The reason is because unlike many nations across the world, there is no mandatory retirement age in the US, which is why it is not uncommon for people to be employed well into their 80s.

But calls to impose age or term limits in Congress have yet to gain much traction.

And while the US Constitution requires a president to be at least 35 years old, there's no upper age limit. Presidents are only constrained by two four-year terms. Any changes would require a very difficult to obtain constitutional amendment.

According to Phelps, "lawmen sit on the Supreme Court until the end of their lives in the US. They never retire. This is one reason why we have such a geriatric political class now, with politicians from both parties being very elderly. No one can show them the door legally."

In Biden’s case, despite his verbal slip-ups and languorous camera appearances, evidence suggests his faculties are as sharp as ever, Phelps added.

"Biden is said by people who work closely with him to be in full command of the complex policy material that comes across the White House desk and in meetings. He apparently takes binders to bed with him."

In contrast, former members of Trump's inner circle have called him a "moron," Phelps said.

"He's known for not even being willing to read the policy briefings. He is not a learned man, and this actually plays to his advantage in terms of the working class voters who are most disposed to vote for him. They see him as one of them, even if he's a billionaire, because he talks like them."

VEEP role

Amid continuing scepticism about the two men’s competence, could their respective vice presidents take on a more prominent role during the election campaign?

According to Owens, yes.

"It hardly matters who Trump’s VP will be, since he will dictate everything. Biden's situation is more interesting and more problematic. Harris was a good choice in 2020 because she was a woman of colour and helped shore up the Democratic base. But in 2024, there are doubts about her popularity. Her disapproval rating is high, largely because many voters lack confidence in her ability to take over, should Biden become incapacitated or die in office."

With both Biden and Trump rating low in the polls, the challenge they now face is to convince the American electorate that, despite everything, they can still inspire confidence.

Both men appear to have their work cut out for them. Amid all this, if either demonstrates any more memory lapses, blunders or indiscretions between now and election day, their age may become an even more significant election issue.