Trump's push for a swift peace in Ukraine faces complex challenges

Two days after this month's United States presidential election, president-elect Donald Trump reportedly held a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Trump was claimed to urge Putin to avoid military escalation in Ukraine and the two addressed the objective of bringing peace to Eastern Europe.

Trump expressed his interest in resolving Ukraine's war "soon."

However, Russia’s government denied that this call, which the Washington Post initially reported, even took place.

During his campaign, Trump vowed to stop the bloodshed in Ukraine through a negotiated settlement with Putin's government, which would permit Moscow to hold onto some Ukrainian territory currently under Russian control.

The president-elect has repeatedly promised to freeze this war within one day and claimed that Russia would have never waged its "special military operation" against Ukraine had he, rather than President Joe Biden, been in the White House.

Russia's response to Trump's win

Moscow is "modestly hopeful but also deeply cautious" about what Trump's return to the White House means for Russia, Anatol Lieven, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute of Responsible Statecraft, tells TRT World.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov immediately responded to Trump's win last week by asserting that Putin did not intend to call the president-elect of "an unfriendly country that is directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state."

Nonetheless, Putin quickly congratulated Trump after the election and explained how he was "ready" to speak with him. Then several days later, Peskov gave an interview with a Russian state TV channel in which he pointed to "positive" signs for improved relations between Russia and the US.

Despite the Russian leadership's cautious optimism, officials in Putin's government realise that Trump's return to the White House does not solely guarantee significant improvements in Moscow-Washington relations.

As an unpredictable figure, it remains unclear how Trump would handle the Ukraine war once back in the Oval Office. Questions linger on how much pressure he will put on Kiev to negotiate with Russia and how much his administration would be willing to concede to Moscow.

Ukraine's stakes

Russia's government views Trump's win as more preferable for Moscow than dealing with a Kamala Harris administration. Nonetheless, while Putin's government is cautiously optimistic about Trump 2.0 decreasing Washington's support for Ukraine, weakening NATO unity, and making concessions to Russia, Kiev fears a second Trump presidency for those same reasons.

Since 2019, Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's relationship has been tense. Ukrainian government officials have huge concerns about Trump potentially shifting US foreign policy in manners that undermine Kiev's means to fight against the Russian offensive and occupation of eastern Ukraine.

If the US cuts off military aid, chiefly artillery ammunition as well as other vital supplies, to the Ukrainians, the Europeans would not be in a position to fill the gaps, essentially requiring Kiev to accept "peace" on terms which could strongly favour Moscow.

"The Ukrainian government is very scared by Trump, and still more by (vice president-elect JD) Vance, who seems to have thought seriously about the terms of a peace settlement," notes Lieven.

Nonetheless, Ukraine's government must deal pragmatically with Trump's second administration. By congratulating Trump on his victory this month, Zelensky demonstrated that he is resigned to making the most of the situation.

"It is no secret that most, if not all, Ukrainian officials hoped Harris would win the election. That, however, does not mean that Kiev will oppose Trump's peace or any other plans, whatever they may be. Being heavily dependent on Washington, Ukraine is not in a position to confront the new American administration," Nikola Mikovic, a Belgrade-based policy analyst with expertise in Russian foreign policy, tells TRT World.

It is reasonable to conclude that policymakers in Kiev may need to accept US-brokered "peace" with Russia as an inevitable step. According to Lieven, "In private, a growing number of Ukrainians acknowledge that the kind of victorious peace set out by the Zelenskyy government is now simply impossible, and something needs to be done to get them to accept reality and start making viable proposals."

Being realistic

Even with Trump at the helm, ending the war in Ukraine would not be easy.

"More realistic policymakers in Moscow are quite aware that the US position regarding Russia is extremely unlikely to significantly change under Trump," says Mikovic.

While some still hold onto the hope that Trump might halt arms shipments to Ukraine, which could assist the Kremlin in achieving some of its objectives, Mikovic notes that the chances of this happening remain slim based on past precedent.

"Trump, as president, never did anything positive for Russia. On the contrary, he began the supply of lethal weapons to Ukraine," notes Lieven. Moscow hopes for a peace proposal from Trump's team that could serve as a basis for talks, but fears a repeat of Trump's uncoordinated approach to past negotiations, such as with North Korea. Although both Putin and Trump might have lofty expectations for mutual benefits, neither appears inclined to make significant concessions to the other—similar to what was observed during Trump’s first term.

Even if next year, US and Russian diplomats successfully agree on terms for freezing the Ukraine war, it is naïve to think that this could be achieved in 24 hours, as Trump promises.

Trump is unlikely to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict "in a day," as he claimed, or perhaps even at all. Moscow is expected to demand more than Trump would be willing or capable of offering.

For Trump's team to reach a workable agreement would require "careful preparation and sophisticated diplomacy, initially in private," Lieven says. But whether Trump's new administration could deliver such an approach remains uncertain.

Considering how in the upcoming four years the US might put its foreign policy energy into countering China and/or Iran, Mikovic's opinion is that the second Trump administration would likely apply pressure on both Kiev and Moscow to freeze the Ukraine war based on current lines.

"I expect Putin to accept such a proposal, just like in 2015 when – in the middle of the pro-Russian rebels' offensive – he agreed to freeze the Donbass conflict and, together with his American partners, focus on the Syrian Civil War instead," says the Serbian analyst.

Remainder of Biden's term

Notably, Trump isn't president yet.

The Biden administration will remain in office until January 20, 2025. Therefore, it is critical to consider what moves the White House could make vis-à-vis Ukraine and Russia in the next 10 weeks that would impact the next administration's ability to engage Putin's government in talks.

There is potential for serious escalation that could alter the war's trajectory before Biden leaves the Oval Office. It is simply impossible to know what will occur on the battlefield between now and Trump's return. But such developments could significantly dim the prospects for US-Russia diplomacy next year.

Observing how the Biden administration is making plans to surge US aid to Kiev, Lieven warns of a "major crisis" being triggered if the outgoing president permits the Ukrainians to launch US-guided missiles into Russia.

"On the other hand, if Russia launches a major offensive to gain more territory before peace talks and this succeeds, we will have to see how Biden will respond," he tells TRT World.

However, even with the Biden administration seeking to expedite remaining US military aid to Kiev, the White House will probably refrain from escalating the conflict before Trump's Inauguration Day by lifting restrictions on Ukraine's use of American weapons deep within Russian territory.