What could have led to the helicopter crash that killed Iran's president?

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were killed in a helicopter crash that also claimed the lives of six other officials on board as they were returning from inaugurating a dam project near the Azerbaijan border earlier this week.

Five days of mourning began with Raisi's funeral procession making its way from the northwest city of Tabriz to the spiritually sacred city of Qom, before proceeding to the capital city of Tehran by Wednesday. After a brief stop at his hometown of Birjand, he will be buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad on Thursday.

"Obviously, the loss of the head of state, and the foreign minister is a very big deal," Sanam Vakil, Chatham House director of MENA, told Associated Press news agency in a video interview. "This comes actually also at a time where the [Iranian government] system has taken many hits across the region in their campaign and contested relationship with Israel," Vakil added.

‘Technical failure’

According to state news media, the crash was attributed to a "technical failure" and occurred in Dizmar forest in the East Azerbaijan province near the border of the two countries. The wreckage was located following an exhaustive search in challenging rain and fog conditions.

Iran has not elaborated further on any other reason for the crash.

The Iranian Red Crescent Society, in a social media post on May 20, remarked that over 2,000 rescuers and aid workers were mobilised in the search operation for Raisi's helicopter.

Countries like Turkiye, China, and the European Union reportedly contributed to the search efforts.

The head of the Iranian Red Crescent, Pir Hossein Kolivand, mentioned that it took about an hour for rescuers to reach the helicopter's location. This was after a Turkish Ministry of National Defense's Akinci unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) detected the wreckage from a distance of about two kilometres and assisted in the search efforts following the crash.

Various contributing factors

It's difficult to pinpoint the exact cause of Sunday's fatal Iran crash. However, one or more factors, including weather, pilot error, and aircraft condition, may have been involved.

Helicopters operate at lower altitudes than fixed-wing aircraft and offer the flexibility to take off and land away from airports, according to an analysis presented at a 2021 forum of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. "Thus, helicopter pilots have decreased access to weather information due to connectivity issues or sparsity of weather coverage in those areas and at those altitudes."

It notes that in 28 percent of all fatal helicopter crashes, weather was a factor.

"Wind was involved in most incidents but more rarely involved in fatalities. Bad visibility conditions due to a combination of low illumination and clouds were responsible for most fatal weather-related accidents," the analysis said.

There have been several high-profile helicopter accidents, including the deaths of retired NBA star Kobe Bryant, and Herbert Wigwe, co-founder of Access Bank, one of the largest banks in Nigeria.

Bryant was killed along with eight others on board, including his 13-year-old daughter Gianna, in January 2020, when pilot error caused his private helicopter to crash into a hillside after flying in heavy fog conditions.

Wigwe's wife and son were among six people killed in a helicopter crash in California in early February this year. At the time, news agencies stated a preliminary investigation report would be released in the coming weeks, but the full inquiry could take two years before a final report is published.

American made

Raisi, 63, was returning from inaugurating the Qiz Qalasi and Khoda Afarin dams, which are part of a joint hydroelectric power project with neighbouring Azerbaijan on the Aras river, when the estimated 45-year-old American Bell 212 helicopter carrying the group crashed near the northwestern city of Tabriz.

Iran's military is said to have 10 American Bell helicopters in its inventory, with the helicopter carrying Raisi reportedly modified to fit up to 15 passengers.

The Bell 212, initially built in Fort Worth, Texas, flew for the first time in 1968 for military use. Production ended in 1998, but its durability and ease of use made it popular for civilian transport and serving in firefighting missions, as cargo transport and armed reconnaissance.

Since 2017, the Bell 212 and its military equivalents have been involved in approximately 30 accidents, eight of which resulted in fatalities, according to the Aviation Safety Network, which maintains a database of accidents for various aircraft.

Sanctions may play a part

An independent aviation analyst, Alex Macheras, said in an interview that decades-long US sanctions against Iran likely contributed to the helicopter crash, as the Iranian helicopter fleet is old and deteriorating.

“This is a country that because of the sanctions has struggled to obtain spare parts. In aviation, spare parts are fundamental in order to provide adequate maintenance not least to young jets but especially to the older jets that need extra care,” Macheras said.

“When aircraft are not receiving the maintenance that is required, you end up in a territory that puts ultimately the lives of those on board an older aircraft at risk,” he added. Yet, "one can't overlook human error and the weather's role in this particular accident," said Ali Vaez, Iran project director with the International Crisis Group.

Iran has a long history of utilising Bell helicopters, but due to Western sanctions, aircraft in Iran often lack crucial parts and are flown without necessary safety checks.

Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told the Associated Press, "One of the main culprits of yesterday's tragedy is the United States, which ... embargoed the sale of aircraft and aviation parts to Iran and does not allow the people of Iran to enjoy good aviation facilities."

Countries at odds

While social media platforms and analysts have speculated about foul play causing the crash, some countries that have not always seen eye to eye on policies with Iran have said they are not involved

An Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters Tel Aviv was not implicated in the crash, while American defence secretary Lloyd Austin stated he lacked insight into the cause of the crash, and noted that the US played no role in it.

While the cause of the crash remains unclear, it seems like whoever steps in to fill Raisi’s shoes — once tipped as a potential successor to Iran’s supreme leader — will have to be “loyal, conservative, and support the current direction of the Islamic Republic," according to Chatham House’s Vakil.