Why Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv could open a new front in Gaza war

A rare drone strike in the heart of Tel Aviv early on Friday might have cemented the status of Houthis—an Iran-backed group that has controlled Yemen’s western parts for a decade—as a key regional player with a sphere of influence extending well beyond the Red Sea.

Calling it an attack on occupied Palestine, the Houthis claimed responsibility for the drone strike near the US embassy’s branch office in central Tel Aviv that killed one Israeli and injured at least 10 people.

“The drone attack on Tel Aviv reveals the growing capabilities and strategic reach of the Houthi forces,” says Dr Kaan Devecioglu, who serves as coordinator for North African Studies at the Ankara-based think tank ORSAM.

Speaking to TRT World, he says the Houthis have demonstrated significant advancements in drone technology and operational coordination with a successful attack deep inside Israeli territory.

The group has historically conducted operations in the Red Sea and Yemen, parts of which it captured in 2014. In a show of solidarity with the Palestinians last November, it declared open season on all ships belonging to Israel and the countries that support its ongoing war in Gaza, in which nearly 39,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, have died.

The Houthis have so far targeted more than 60 vessels by firing missiles and drones, killing at least four sailors. They have also seized one vessel and sank two in the Red Sea since November.

“I believe the attack also underscores the Houthis’ intent to establish themselves as a regional actor capable of conducting high-impact operations beyond their traditional sphere of influence,” he says.

The Houthis claimed on social media platform X that their drones are built to bypass Israel’s aerial defence system. The AP news agency reported that all previous attacks on Israeli soil by the Houthis were intercepted by either Israel or its Western allies with forces stationed in the region.

But Friday’s attack was different in the sense that it was launched from the Mediterranean, says Devecioglu.

In the past, the Houthis would launch attacks over Eilat, which is Israel’s southernmost city at the northern tip of the Red Sea.

The Israeli military insists that its system identified the explosive-laden drone, which was not intercepted only because of a “human error”.

According to Israeli intelligence analyst Yonah Jeremy Bob, Israel has “essentially outsourced” its defence against the Houthis to the US.

“The scary thing is not that the Houthis snuck one drone through to Tel Aviv. The scary thing is that this incident stunned the defence establishment,” he wrote in The Jerusalem Post,

Devecioglu says another “noteworthy” feature of the latest strike is that it took place within hours of Israel targeting a Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon.

Israel and Lebanon-based Hezbollah have been exchanging fire in Syria and the Israel-annexed Golan Heights. The Lebanese group has been firing rockets into northern Israel at an increasing pace in the recent past, saying it will back down only when Israel ends its war in Gaza.

Devecioglu says the attack in the centre of Tel Aviv can lead to a “strong response” from Israel, potentially involving military strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.

By launching a military response against the Houthis, Israel will join forces with the US and the UK in a wider aerial campaign against the Iran-backed group based out of western Yemen.

The rising number of attacks, which made June the second-worst month since the Houthis began last November, has almost blocked a “vital route” for European trade, especially hydrocarbon transfers from Gulf countries to Europe.

As a result, major shipping lines have diverted all their Red Sea-bound vessels to the south as they circumnavigate the entire African continent — via the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa — causing a steep rise in freight costs.

The latest attack on Tel Aviv has escalated tensions significantly in the Red Sea basin countries, Devecioglu says. “Given that the Houthis are thought to be supported by Iran, this situation indicates a new level of threat posed by the group.”

He says Israel might choose to cooperate more closely with the US and other allies to effectively counter the Houthi threat mainly because of the ongoing war in Gaza. “Therefore, this attack essentially points to Israel's deepening regional instability.”

As for the implications of the drone attack within Israel, Devecioglu says the domestic reaction will largely depend on the Benjamin Netanyahu government’s ability to effectively respond to the attack and prevent future threats.

“It is likely to increase calls for [Netanyahu’s] resignation,” he says, adding that the attack might also galvanise public support for the prime minister as a leader “determined” to defend Israel on multiple fronts simultaneously.