Why tiny Moldova’s presidential elections are important for Russia, West?

Moldova, a small Slavic nation wedged between Romania and Ukraine, will head to the polls in October to elect a new president. But that is only one part of the bigger picture.

Against the backdrop of the Ukraine war, Moldova’s citizens will have to decide between the staunchly pro-West incumbent president and her challenger, who has not hidden his fascination for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

To top it all off, the elections will be held barely months after the European Union started the process of integrating Moldova into its fold.

On Monday, the “unified opposition” candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo announced his candidacy against the pro-West incumbent Maia Sandu, who supports EU membership. Stoianoglo’s biggest supporters, the Socialists, are the country’s largest opposition.

The Ukraine parallels

Moldova’s elections are closely watched by the West due to circumstances deemed similar to those of Ukraine.

Like Ukraine, Moldova is also part of the former Soviet Union.

And the Russian military campaign in Ukraine was triggered by Kiev’s decision join the US-led NATO, a military grouping Moscow believes is working against its interests.

Though the EU is more of an economic grouping, Russia keeps a close eye on what happens in Moldova, which has a substantial Russian-speaking minority like the pro-West Baltic states and Ukraine.

While there is no guarantee that the ongoing negotiations will finally lead to Moldova’s EU membership, the process has also already raised eyebrows in the Kremlin.

"We know that many people in this country (Moldova) believe that the country should develop in all directions, and that the future interests of the country cannot be connected only with the European Union, but with such promising markets as the Russian Federation, as well as with integration processes on the territory of the former Soviet Union," Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman said in late June.

Pro-Russian regions

In Moldova’s context, the “integration processes” refer to Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway enclave, and the autonomous Gagauz region, which has a sizable ethnic Turkic population.

Both regions have had problems with the government in Chisinau, the Moldovan capital, ranging from political to cultural.

Compared to Moldova’s population of 2.5 million, Transnistria has 350,000 people, while the Gagauz region has a population of 120,000.

However, both regions are strategically important, located along Moldova’s border with Ukraine. Western observers say Moscow can use the two enclaves to put political pressure over pro-West Moldova.

Russia has deployed around 1,500 troops, which is a significant presence because the breakaway Transnistria’s military has only nearly 5,000 soldiers. Some analysts argued that Moscow could use its military presence in Transnistria to pressure Ukraine from the southwest.

In the Ukraine conflict, Russia has put pressure on Kiev from different directions – from Belarus in the north, the illegally annexed Crimean peninsula in the south and the Russian-speaking breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

West vs Russia?

Moldova’s upcoming presidential election has already witnessed a competition between external forces, from the Western bloc to Russia, to influence its outcome.

In mid-June, shortly before the EU Council opened accession talks with Moldova on June 25, the US, the UK and Canada released a joint statement accusing Moscow of meddling in the Moldovan elections.

The three countries also alleged that Russia is working behind the scenes and launched a disinformation campaign against the pro-Western Maia Sandu.

It also claimed that if the pro-Russian presidential candidate loses the election, Moscow is planning to organise large protests against Sandu to create political chaos across Moldova. Russian foreign ministry did not comment on Western allegations concerning Moldovan presidential elections.

In April, Moscow hosted a meeting of Moldovan opposition figures, including billionaire Ilan Shor and Gagauzia governor Evghenia Gutul, who expressed concern that her people can be “marginalised in a Europe-aligned Moldova”.

In the Moscow meeting, the opposition figures declared the formation of an anti-Western political alliance.

Some analysts have argued that the Moldovan Socialists might also decide to work hand-in-hand with the Shor and his allies to oust Sandu.