Will Türkiye-Syria ice-breaking meeting lead to normalisation?

After more than a decade of diplomatic discord that put them on opposite sides in the Syrian conflict, Ankara and Damascus have recently moved to normalise relations as Syrian and Turkish defence ministers shook hands in Moscow in a groundbreaking meeting on Wednesday. 

The tripartite meeting between the Turkish, Russian and Syrian defence ministers - Hulusi Akar, Sergei Shoigu and Ali Mahmoud Abbas - suggests that there could be an end to the brutal conflict in the Middle Eastern country.  

After the critical meeting, the Turkish defence ministry released a statement, saying that the three ministers discussed issues ranging from the Syrian crisis to the refugee issue and combating terrorist threats in the war-torn country’s territory bordering Türkiye. 

The statement also underlined that more meetings between Ankara and Damascus would be held in the near future to deepen the reconciliation process, which aims to bring stability to Syria. Ankara-Damascus ties deteriorated after the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011.

Experts say that in recent months, Türkiye and Syria have increasingly looked to bury past diplomatic differences and prioritise domestic security concerns by tackling terror groups operating along the border between the two neighbours. 

The signs of a growing reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus come amid growing indications that Türkiye could launch ground operations against the YPG/PKK terror group operating from northern Syria. 

“There was a war which has produced many pains, resentment, destruction and sectarian tensions. These are deep wounds which particularly need a repair process. Can both sides launch a process to heal these wounds? Hope they can. I want to see it happening,” Abdullah Agar, an Istanbul-based security expert, told TRT World. 

Behind-the-scenes talks

Top Turkish officials have previously indicated that the ongoing behind-the-scenes talks between top intelligence officials of both countries have laid the groundwork for a possible political reconciliation. Both Syrian and Turkish intelligence chiefs were present in Wednesday’s meeting. 

“This path is not an easy one. But if both sides show their commitment to this process and external powers [like Russia, Iran and the US] do not hamper it, I evaluate good things can be done to realise a normalisation,” says Agar. The tripartite Moscow meeting shows that Russia supports Turkish-Syrian reconciliation more than any other political actors. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has developed strong ties with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin through the Astana peace process aiming to address the Syrian conflict, recently indicated that fractured ties with Damascus could heal. 

“There should be no resentment in politics,” Erdogan said after shaking hands with Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el Sisi last month during the FIFA World Cup opening ceremony. 

“In the next period, just as it [Türkiye] has entered a [normalisation] path with Egypt, it can also enter another [normalisation] path with Syria.” 

Before Egypt, Türkiye had also normalised relations with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Israel after the Arab Spring rebellions largely failed across the Middle East. 

During the meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) in Istanbul last month, Erdogan called on Muslim countries to help stabilise Syria. 

“For Syria to get rid of the spiral of conflict, humanitarian crisis and terror, Islamic countries should put stronger will and actively support the efforts for a political solution,” he said, underlining Türkiye’s intentions to get Syria back on track. 

A common enemy

Syria has been battered by the more-than-a-decade-long civil war that has killed thousands of civilians and uprooted millions of people, leading to the emergence of terror groups such as Daesh and YPG/PKK. The YPG and Daesh are threats to both Türkiye and Syria, neighbours with a long shared history in a tough Middle East neighbourhood.

The YPG controls a large swath of territory across northeastern Syria, including the country’s oil fields as well as dams, posing a clear and present threat to Damascus’s territorial integrity. 

The YPG’s control in northern Syria also compromises Turkish border security. 

While the civil war has made many suffer, the YPG, the Syrian wing of the banned terrorist group PKK, has used it to gain more territory and political leverage thanks to the financial and diplomatic support it receives from the US. 

PKK has been designated a terror group by both Türkiye and the US. The YPG has exploited differences between Syria and Türkiye to its favour. But a political rapprochement between the two neighbours might end the terror group’s hold in northern Syria, according to Agar. 

“This threat (YPG) has become a common threat for Ankara and Damascus. Can we eliminate the hostility between us and cooperate against the YPG despite all the problems between us? Yes, we can,” says Agar. 

The Assad regime stands to gain from such a collaboration. 

Turkish-Syrian cooperation might help Damascus regain its control of the eastern side of the Euphrates River, which is under the YPG dominance, ensuring the equal distribution of resources across all Syrian territories, says Ulas Pehlivan, another international security expert.

But there are lingering problems between Damascus and Ankara, ranging from the status of millions of Syrian refugees living in Türkiye to other issues like how the Syrian opposition could be integrated into the existing political structure led by Assad and his family members. 

While the Assad forces were able to gain much of Syria with the help of Russia and Iran through the course of the civil war, “an internal [political] reconciliation, which is essential for international normalisation of Syria, is yet to be reached,” Pehlivan tells TRT World. 

A durable Syrian settlement of internal problems is key to a long-term rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus, according to Pehlivan. In addition to the national reconciliation process, Pehlivan believes Syria can see Türkiye as a helpful partner and mediator between opposition groups and Damascus. 

“Ankara and Damascus should cooperate on the fight against all terror groups, bilateral trade, fair distribution of water and oil sources and reconstruction of Syria as well as improving the conditions in Syria for the voluntary return of refugees from Türkiye,” says Pehlivan. 

Other factors

Syria-Türkiye talks might also be affected by how external actors like Russia and Iran, the two backers of Damascus, and the US, the ally of the YPG, will act regarding a possible rapprochement between the two neighbours. 

Countrywide protests have rocked Iran, while Russia has faced stiff resistance and even a counteroffensive across eastern Ukraine. 

Despite a complex political equation across Eurasia and the Middle East, the US and Russia might theoretically develop a political consensus corresponding to Türkiye’s national security concerns in Syria, according to Agar. “It’s difficult but not impossible,” he says. 

Agar believes that Türkiye’s preparation to launch another cross-border operation against the YPG has increased the traffic of talks between Moscow, Washington, Damascus and Ankara, raising the prospect of normalisation between the two neighbours. 

“As a result, Türkiye’s expectations [in regard to the YPG/PKK in northern Syria] can even be met without a Turkish operation,” Agar says. The Türkiye-Syria normalisation process might be shaped by how a potential Turkish operation in northern Syria proceeds, according to Agar. 

Syria’s terrible finances also figure as one of the factors between the two countries’ possible rapprochement, according to Pehlivan. “Syria needs Türkiye for economic assistance,” Pehlivan says. 

Kamal Alam, a military analyst and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, also believes that Assad needs financial help. “Türkiye can be important there,” Alam tells TRT World. 

“Türkiye is the most important country for Syria, though. That’s why Assad said many times that he could shake hands with Erdogan,” Alam adds. 

Devlet Bahceli, one of Erdogan’s most powerful allies and the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), has also expressed support for a Syria-Türkiye reconciliation. 

“The contact our president established with Egyptian President Sisi in Qatar is the right one. In our opinion, this move should be backed up with another one and the ground for a meeting with Syrian Arab Republic President Bashar al Assad should be opened,” Bahceli said. 

“A common will should be formed against terrorist organisations,” he added, referring to both countries’ shared national security concerns in relation to the presence of the YPG/PKK and Daesh in northern Syria.