Will Trump's persistent scorn for NATO impact the alliance?

As the president-elect Donald Trump prepares to reclaim the Oval Office in January 2025, questions loom over his presidency’s impact on NATO, a cornerstone of Washington’s foreign policy to counter Russian influence in Europe and beyond.

With Trump frequently criticising NATO in his previous term, arguing that the US was unfairly shouldering the financial burden of the alliance while European members underinvested in their own defence, many wonder what his approach will be this time, especially since he has emerged as the most popular leader with a substantial 312 electoral college votes, even winning all the battleground states, a feat unmatched in 40 years of US election history.

“A second Trump presidency is likely to focus, above all, on getting European allies to spend more and do more in terms of European security,” says Dr. Ian Lesser, Distinguished Fellow and adviser to The German Marshall Fund’s president.

In light of Trump’s unpredictable nature during his previous tenure, Lesser says it’s become clear that the “president-elect sees the world first and foremost relations with individual countries, indeed individual leaders” rather than implementing foreign policy decisions through multilateral institutions and diplomatic means.

The set-to-serve 47th president’s emphasis on 'America First' and his transactional view of alliances suggest he would once again pressure NATO members to increase their financial and military contributions.

One of Trump’s main criticisms has always been about NATO’s financial structure, insisting that wealthy European countries should bear a greater share of their defence costs.

A second Trump term might see stricter accountability, where nations falling short of the 2 percent GDP target face potential repercussions or reduced US support.

Concerns also persist that a renewed focus on burden-sharing might shift NATO’s attention from long-term strategic objectives to addressing immediate demands, potentially weakening the alliance’s effectiveness on global security issues.

“For Trump, alliances, trade agreements and the structure of multilateral institutions and diplomacy are a much lower priority,” Lesser says.

And this approach would differ significantly from the Biden administration's, which prioritised NATO and viewed the EU as a key partner on major issues, he adds.

“The EU is unlikely to be accorded such significance in the coming Trump administration.”

Relations with adversaries

Beyond NATO’s internal dynamics, Trump’s approach to global adversaries could also reshape the alliance’s relationships with Russia and China.

Throughout his first term, Trump’s foreign policy exhibited a mix of rhetoric and personal diplomacy toward Russia, raising some concerns among NATO allies.

“The relationship with Russia is likely to remain adversarial regardless of any efforts toward a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. NATO will retain its importance in this regard, in both conventional and nuclear strategy,” Lesser says.

On the other hand, Trump’s return could also affect NATO’s stance on China.

Under his leadership, the US intensified scrutiny on China, a stance that NATO has since incorporated into its strategic considerations. However, Trump’s return could result in an inconsistent approach to China, potentially sidelining NATO’s strategic pivot to address Chinese influence.

“China will increasingly be seen as the key strategic competitor for the US. NATO is unlikely to be a very meaningful security actor on this front, especially as a growing American focus on the Indo-Pacific compels European allies to focus on security in and around Europe,” Lesser explains.

Broader implications?

A second Trump term could also ripple out to other global alliances. If Trump undermines NATO’s unity, it may signal a shift in the US’s broader commitment to multilateralism.

Allies beyond NATO, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, may question the US’s willingness to support collective defence in the face of shared threats from China and Russia.

In Europe, a weakened NATO could prompt EU nations to explore a more independent security framework, potentially diminishing NATO’s influence over European defence.

“That said, I do not think a US withdrawal from NATO is likely. NATO will retain its importance for American interests. But a more critical view from Washington could surely complicate Alliance politics,” Lesser tells TRT World.