Will Uttar Pradesh, India’s biggest state, let Modi get a third term as PM?

For Narendra Modi, who is making a bid for a third consecutive term as India’s prime minister, the northern province of Uttar Pradesh (UP) holds the key to fulfilling his ambition of equalling the record set by Jawaharlal Nehru, his bete noire who served as the country’s first premier from 1947 to 1964.

The largest Indian state in terms of population, UP accounts for 80 of the 532 parliamentary constituencies in the world’s most populous country.

The change in UP’s electoral landscape was too apparent as I crisscrossed it recently. Giant billboards, buntings and party flags that one associates with an election were missing. The frenzied enthusiasm and fervour for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had died down.

In its place, there was a slow-simmering anger, mixed with both fear and resignation. Inter-caste rivalries had surfaced again, with upper-caste Rajputs, for instance, holding enormous meetings in the western part of the state to denounce the BJP. Hindu-Muslim tensions appeared to have receded.

Modi remained the fulcrum of the election but—unlike in 2014 and 2019—his name was not universally greeted with approbation. Across the province, many villagers even responded adversely to his name, mocking his “tall” promises and his “never-ending” speeches.

UP today is a state ravaged by the after-effects of Modi’s decade in power: the ill-advised demonetisation (2016) was followed by the faulty implementation of the Goods and Services Act (2017) and the poor handling of the Covid pandemic (2020-23).

The government’s efforts to crush rather than respond sympathetically to the two farmers’ agitations (2020-21 and 2024) have also hurt UP where 59.3 percent of the population is engaged in agriculture.

Together, they have destroyed not just jobs but also the hope of a better life. In every village I visited, the lack of employment opportunities was a key complaint. As more people get educated and aspirations grow, the lack of commensurate employment opportunities, compounded by rising prices, is creating a social crisis.

Many educated young men, frustrated by a lack of prospects, spend their time getting drunk or even join the militias run by local strongmen. Some help on the family land, some leave their homes for distant destinations like Nashik, Surat, Bengaluru or Mumbai in search of more substantial employment.

Instead of focusing on job creation, the Modi government invented the Labharthi or beneficiary, a class comprising recipients of free rations, the Kisan Samman Nidhi, free homes, toilets, gas connections and water on their doorsteps.

But these handouts have lost their allure amid increasing corruption and poor administration. As I travel, I am bombarded with complaints: half the promised free rations are being siphoned off. The construction of toilets depends on the munificence of the village head. Pipes for running water have been laid but, in many cases, nothing gushes through them yet. Free gas cylinders have been provided, but the cost of re-filling them is so prohibitive that most lie idle.

The dispensation of justice was a luxury for those with friends in high places. “Go to a police station as an ‘unknown’, and no one will give you a hearing,” I was told.

The BJP’s boast that it will win more than 400 parliamentary seats has backfired. The Dalits and sections of the Other Backward Castes (OBCs), a collective term used by the government to classify castes that are educationally or socially backward, now believe that the party will amend the Constitution if it secures such an overwhelming majority and end the job and education quotas they are entitled to now.

Indeed, Home Minister Amit Shah was forced to address this apprehension publicly: “I want to make one thing clear: BJP supports reservation for SCs (Scheduled Castes), STs (Scheduled Tribes) and OBCs and will always play its role as its protector.”

As for the Muslims, who form 20 percent of the population, the fires of the Muzaffarnagar riots in 2013 have been doused, and people are not that excited at the consecration of the Ram temple. But the anti-Muslim sentiment is well and truly embedded.

Among non-Muslims, there is widespread approbation across caste lines for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s “bulldozer politics” – strongarm tactics used to deal with the Muslim community, even literally bulldozing their homes. Even at the Allahabad High Court, upper-caste lawyers gleefully said it was time to “teach the Muslims a lesson, to show them their place”.

Indeed, if there is one community that has the greatest stakes in these elections, it is the Muslim community—for them, it is a do-or-die situation.

A weak BJP, a weaker opposition

The opposition, as part of the INDIA alliance, successfully turned its campaign issues—unemployment, inflation, danger to the Constitution among others—into talking points at the village level.

Simultaneously, the promised “Modi ki guarantee” was beginning to ring hollow, the BJP’s top leadership realised. Their speeches changed, moving from a listing of the government’s achievements to targeting the opposition for allegedly trying to divide people along religious lines. Eventually, a desperate Modi claimed he was an avatar of God himself.

And yet, despite the litany of complaints, there is a belief that it is difficult to oust the BJP—and it isn’t only because people have little faith in the opposition putting up an effective fight against the BJP.

Across UP, there is scepticism about the reliability of the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). “As long as there are EVMs, Modi will return to power. Bring back the ballot paper!” was a near universal refrain.

There is also a sense that though the list of complaints against the government has grown, and there is increasing disquiet among the upper castes, it is not enough to make a serious dent in the BJP citadel in UP.

In the last elections, the BJP fought in alliance with the Apna Dal-Sonelal (AD-S), secured 49.9 percent of votes and won 62 seats, while the AD-S managed another two seats with 1.2 percent of votes.

The Samajwadi Party (SP) fought in alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). This combination won 15 seats. The BSP, with 19.4 percent of votes, managed 10 seats while the SP (18.1 percent) won five and the RLD (1.7 percent) none. The biggest opposition party, Indian National Congress, won just one seat, with 6.36 percent of the votes.

This time, the BJP’s allies include not just the AD-S, but also the RLD, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) and the Nishad party, representing a range of OBCs, which means it begins with a broader base. The SP and Congress have joined hands, while the BSP is contesting on its own, which means it is a much weaker configuration than the opposition alliance of 2019.

Two, even though people were quick to list their complaints against the BJP, when asked whether that meant the party and its allies would lose many seats, their cryptic reply was: “There is no real opposition—it is very weak.”

The opposition formed the INDIA alliance but it failed to present a united opposition front countrywide. How will this translate on the ground? The ball is in the people’s court now.