With Nasrallah gone, Iran’s influence set to wane in the Middle East

Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah’s assassination strikes at the core of Iran's long-term strategic investments in the Middle East.

With Nasrallah being a central figure — both militarily and politically — to Iran's "Axis of Resistance," a network of regional allies, his killing changes several equations on the ground.

"The removal of key figures like Nasrallah weakens not only Hezbollah but also Iran's deterrence," Dr Mustafa Yetim from Eskisehir Osmangazi University emphasised the significance of this assassination for regional balance in an interview with TRT World.

According to Yetim, Hezbollah, which served as Iran's strongest asset in the region, has now lost its prominent leader.

"This first outcome, indeed, resulted from some recurrent events in the region since the outbreak of 7 October."

However, this is not just a military loss. Iran expert Dr Mehmet Koc explains to TRT World that Nasrallah played a broader strategic role for Iran.

"Nasrallah was not merely a military leader; he could manage political balances in the Middle East for Iran. Still, Nasrallah, much like Qasem Soleimani, is a figure that can be replaced for Iran," says Koc.

Thanks to Nasrallah, Hezbollah, Iran's most significant ally in Lebanon, had grown to become not only a resistance movement but also a key actor in Lebanese politics. Koc believes re-establishing this political balance after Nasrallah's death will be challenging.

Israel's intelligence strategy

In recent years, Israel has shifted from traditional military operations against Hezbollah to more sophisticated tactics. The assassination of Nasrallah is a prime example of this new strategy.

Yetim explains Israel's new approach: "This time, Israel avoided ground warfare, instead weakening Hezbollah with intelligence and cyberattacks."

He notes that Israel learned from its losses during the 2006 Lebanon War and has used this strategy to target Hezbollah's most influential figures, thus damaging the group's morale and military strength. Hezbollah, having relied on its past victories, expected a ground invasion from Israel. However, Israel took a completely different path.

Koc highlights the consequences of Hezbollah's strategic miscalculation.

"Nasrallah thought Israel would enter Lebanon as it did in 2006, but instead, Israel chose to strike through intelligence operations."

"The leadership of Hezbollah and around 4,000 members being injured and compromised through cyberattacks will inevitably cause significant temporary weaknesses in their fight against Israel,” Koc adds.

Leadership crisis within Hezbollah

Not only Hamas but also Hezbollah faced major setbacks during its conflicts with Israel.

"What is a strategic mistake during this process is that Hezbollah considered this process as a traditional war, a traditional conflict with Israel. And you know, in the past, Hezbollah gained much more political, military, and other types of gains from its traditional war with Israel in 2006," Yetim says.

This reliance on past strategies backfired. Israel never entered southern Lebanon, leaving Hezbollah unprepared for a new kind of warfare centred on intelligence and cyber tactics.

Experts predict the new leadership crisis, exacerbated by Nasrallah's death, is set to weaken Hezbollah's regional influence.

"Without Nasrallah, Hezbollah will face a significant leadership vacuum, reducing its influence across the region."

Koc stresses that filling this void will take work.

"Nasrallah was the leader who coordinated all elements of Iran's Axis of Resistance. His successor will need time to manage these complex relationships, but the speed of developments in the Middle East may not allow this," warns Koc.

This could also interrupt Iran's support for its other regional allies, he adds.

Erosion of military power

Israel's cyber espionage tracked down the identities of Hezbollah's leadership and around 4,000 members, significantly damaging the group's operational capabilities.

Yetim believes that this situation provides Israel with a strategic advantage.

"Israel has effectively used cyberattacks to weaken Hezbollah's internal structure, making it more difficult for the group to organise military operations," Yetim says.

Under these conditions, rebuilding Hezbollah's military strength may take a long time.

Koc forecasts that Israel will up the ante, increasing the pressure on Hezbollah and making its recovery even more challenging.

Power balance in Lebanon

Yetim notes that Hezbollah owed its strong position in Lebanese politics to Nasrallah's political manoeuvrings. Now facing a leadership vacuum, Hezbollah's political influence is likely to diminish.

"Nasrallah's leadership was the cornerstone of Hezbollah's political power, and now that structure is in jeopardy," Yetim says.

"Killing Nasrallah closes the circle of some kind of 'victory' not found in Gaza. The implications for Gaza are severe: Hezbollah is their main supplier of arms. Hezbollah, banned in most Western countries and designated a terrorist organisation, is well organised it has since 1994 groomed a successor (a maternal cousin of Nasrallah and once a theology student in the famed Qom seminary)," says Dr Larbi Sadiki, a scholar with the Japanese Society for the Promotion of Science specialising in democratisation in the Arab world, while speaking to TRT World.

Koc also believes that this power vacuum will be a test for Hezbollah's allies. "After Nasrallah's death, Hezbollah's allies will need to reassess their positions," he says.

This situation could pave the way for other political actors in Lebanon to gain power and potentially lead to the "gradual loss of Iranian deterrence and credibility in containing Israel and supporting its non-state allies in the region, primarily Hamas and Hezbollah.”