Iran's next attack could hit critical Israeli infrastructure — expert

Washington DC — Iran's recent barrage of missile strikes on Israel have sent shockwaves across the Middle East and caused a seismic shift in the region's security as well.

With experts delving into Tehran's military capabilities and potential shifts in its strategy, there's a growing sense that the choice of targets will play a crucial role in shaping the outcomes of any future attacks.

"There are additional capabilities the Iranians could bring to the fight. However, the big strategic change would be if they decided to choose other targets and move from striking airfields and intelligence centres to striking cities," Fabian Hinz, a ballistic and cruise missiles expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told TRT World.

"Iran has invested in the development of ballistic missiles for almost three decades to compensate for its lack of an air force capable of confronting technologically superior adversaries like the US and Israel," he said.

Following the October 1 attacks, a substantial number of Iranian missiles managed to breach Israeli defences.

Satellite images published by the Associated Press show several Iranian hits on Nevatim Airbase . The Israeli army has confirmed that several IAF bases were damaged during the attack, which involved a little over 180 ballistic missiles.

"The amount of damage caused appeared to have been rather limited due to the missile's limited accuracy," Hinz noted.

While some damage was inflicted at Israel's Nevatim Airbase, it fell short of significantly impacting Tel Aviv's operational readiness.

Prolonged series of strikes

Tehran's shifting missile strategy is putting the spotlight on whether Israel can endure — should this escalate — a prolonged series of strikes.

Hinz, who also specialises in geospatial analysis, said that "Israel’s missile defence consists of a layered system," featuring Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow 2 and 3 to counter various missile threats.

However, he cautioned, "During an attack in which large numbers of missiles are launched simultaneously, missile defence systems might not cope with the challenge."

As Iran seeks to overwhelm Israeli defences through sheer numbers and advanced missile designs, the risks intensify. Next time it could be waves of missiles, but the larger question remains: could Israel hold the line?

Recent flare-up has highlighted the effectiveness of Iran's shorter-range capabilities.

"Iran's shorter-range missiles have proven to be quite accurate," Hinz said, contrasting this with the performance of its longer-range missiles.

"Iran's longer-range strikes against Israel have proven less precise," he added, pointing to either technical challenges in achieving accuracy over extended distances or Israeli countermeasures designed to disrupt missile guidance systems.

Targeting urban centres

The implications are manifold, particularly with the prospect of Iranian missiles targeting urban centres in Israel.

Hinz warned that future strikes could be aimed at "both population centres and critical infrastructure."

This potential shift from military targets to urban areas not only raises alarms for Israel but also for international observers concerned about the fallout of such conflicts.

Discussing the potential for an Israeli strike on Iran, the expert pointed to Israel's strong airpower.

"In an attack against Iran, Israel would likely leverage its advanced airpower," Hinz noted, referencing F-35 stealth fighter jets and older aircraft capable of launching standoff munitions from outside Iranian borders. Such tactical adjustments reflect an ongoing arms race, where technological advancements could tilt the balance of power in the region.

Israel's military responses, Hinz said, could involve sophisticated weaponry.

"The latter were apparently used in April when, in retaliation for Iran's attack, Israel used an air-launched ballistic missile to knock out an advanced radar belonging to an S-300 air defence system."