Narrative of Iran as 'sole provocateur' ignores Israel's actions in Gaza

Blaming Iran for allegedly escalating the Middle East conflict ignores the broader context of Tel Aviv's actions in Gaza, a top security analyst said on Wednesday.

Tensions between Israel and Iran reached a breaking point after Tehran launched a massive missile strike on Israeli military and intelligence sites late on Tuesday, pushing the region to the brink.

As sirens blared across Israel, warning of nearly 200 incoming missiles, Tel Aviv's allies swiftly issued statements of support, accusing Iran of stoking tensions.

The US, the UK, Canada, and Germany condemned Iran's "outrageous act of aggression", saying it was escalating an already dangerous situation.

President Joe Biden expressed full support for Israel following the attack, while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged Britain's solidarity with Israel "in the face of this aggression".

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that Iran was "risking setting the entire region on fire", and Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly said Tehran's actions would only further destabilise the region.

However, Ashok Swain, a professor of peace and conflict research at Uppsala University, cautioned against viewing the conflict as a simple case of Iranian escalation.

"The conflict cannot be seen as merely an 'Iranian escalation'," Swain told TRT World, adding that both sides share responsibility due to the long history of retaliatory actions.

"Labelling Iran as the sole provocateur neglects the broader context of Israeli military actions in Gaza, the air strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and the historical grievances that underpin this cycle of violence," he said.

Swain emphasised that both nations had choices, and despite the complexity of their rivalry, they still do. "The broader context of their rivalry and regional dynamics often narrows these options," he added.

A key element fuelling this conflict, Swain said, is the unresolved Palestinian issue, which continues to drive hostilities between Israel and Iran.

Israeli retaliation

Israel issued a strong warning, promising to retaliate and make Iran "pay" after the missile attack, where it said most missiles were intercepted. Tehran, in response, threatened to target Israel's "entire infrastructure" if attacked.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran made a "grave error" and would face consequences, pledging to deliver a powerful response across the Middle East.

Swain suggested that Israeli retaliation seemed inevitable but noted the difficulty in predicting when and how it would happen.

"Israel is still determining its response to the unprecedented missile attack," he said, adding that internal power-sharing dynamics within Israel were complicating the decision-making process.

An Israeli retaliation is more a matter of "when" than "if", given the scale of Iran's attack, Swain said.

In a recent interview with the BBC, Dr Andreas Krieg, a geopolitical risk analyst, discussed the escalating tensions in the Middle East, expressing concern over Israel’s actions.

Krieg said the international community, particularly the US, has a significant role in preventing further instability.

"This is not for the Israelis to decide. I think the international community has to make sure that whatever Israel does is not upending the regional order as we know it," he said.

Krieg, who is also a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King's College London, mentioned that Israel's actions have crossed multiple "red lines" over the past year, often exacerbating tensions in the region.

The latest escalation has reignited fears of a full-scale regional conflict, with Swain warning that the region is at its most vulnerable in recent times.

"The hostilities between Israel, Iran, and Lebanon have significantly increased the risk of a full-fledged regional war," Swain cautioned. He warned of the possibility of a retaliatory spiral that could drag other regional powers into the conflict.

"While a full-scale regional war is not inevitable, the situation is highly volatile, and any miscalculation or further escalation could push the region closer to a large-scale conflict."