US intel sees possibility of Israel-Lebanon war 'in weeks' — report

Amid escalating tensions, US intelligence has warned of a looming potential for a large-scale war between Israel and Lebanon within weeks if current efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza fail, according to US news website Politico.

American officials are currently actively engaged in mediation to de-escalate the situation, emphasising the critical importance of reaching a truce in Gaza to ease broader regional tensions, Politico reported.

Despite ongoing negotiations, the prospect of an imminent agreement remains uncertain, with both the Israeli military and Hezbollah movement reportedly preparing for conflict, including efforts to procure additional weaponry.

While both sides publicly express a desire to avoid war, senior US officials express growing concern that hostilities may erupt regardless.

"Two of the senior officials stressed that it was unclear when exactly the war could start but noted that Israel is trying to rebuild its stockpiles and troop capacity quickly," Politico said.

Travel advisories

The risk of conflict is currently assessed as elevated, particularly as some European nations anticipate potential hostilities "could happen in days", prompting advisories for their citizens to leave Lebanon.

The US State Department has also issued a travel advisory advising American citizens to reconsider travel to Lebanon.

The "intelligence indicates the catalyst for war — a major attack by either side, for example — is likely to happen with little notice," Politico said citing US officials.

Efforts to avert a broader conflict have included high-level US diplomatic missions to the region, yet with little progress in cease fire negotiations and mounting border tensions, the trajectory appears to lean towards increased military engagement.

While US officials are actively working to quell the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has brought Lebanon dangerously close to all-out war, those efforts are further complicated by the Biden administration's failures in brokering a ceasefire in Israel's war on Gaza.

Notwithstanding the hectic diplomatic efforts, the looming risk persists.

American intelligence suggests that the trigger for war — such as a significant attack by either side — could occur suddenly and without much warning.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, who visited the US this week, told reporters, "We are preparing for every possible scenario."

Iran warns of 'obliterating war'

Iran's UN mission, meanwhile, said late on Friday that if Israel embarks on a "full-scale military aggression" in Lebanon, "an obliterating war will ensue."

The Iranian mission also said in the post on X, formerly known as Twitter, that in such an event "all options, incl. the full involvement of all resistance fronts, are on the table."

While the current fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is still relatively contained, it marks their worst confrontation in 18 years, with widespread damage to buildings and farmland in southern Lebanon and northern Israel.

The sides have been trading fire since the Gaza war erupted in October. The hostilities have largely depopulated the border zone on both sides, with tens of thousands of people fleeing their homes.

Israel says fire from Lebanon has killed 18 soldiers and 10 civilians. Israeli attacks have killed more than 300 Hezbollah fighters and 87 civilians, according to Reuters tallies.

Throughout northern Israel, around 2,000 buildings have been damaged, the country's tax authority said. Across the border, some 2,700 homes have been completely destroyed and 22,000 more damaged, significantly below the 2006 conflict, the Council for South Lebanon said, though these numbers were preliminary.

In 2006, Hezbollah killed three Israeli soldiers and captured two others in a surprise ground raid. In response, Israel targeted civilian infrastructure and bombed power stations in Lebanon.

The fighting lasted for 34 days and led to the killing of 1,200 Lebanese — mostly civilians — and 158 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

Hezbollah, far stronger than in 2006, has announced that displacing Israelis in the north has been an accomplishment of its current campaign which it says will only stop if Israel ends war on Gaza and completely withdraws from the besieged Palestinian enclave.