Will ‘pact’ with Houthis save Russian, Chinese ships in Red Sea?

Two of the major global powers seem to have thrown their weight behind the Houthis, an Iran-backed group that has controlled Yemen’s western ports for a decade and is responsible for attacks on merchant ships passing through the Red Sea since November 2023.

Bloomberg reported last week that the Houthis, formally known as Ansarallah, have reached an “understanding” with China and Russia to allow their ships to sail unharmed through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Trade flows hit a major bump following Israel’s invasion of Gaza as the Houthis declared open season on all ships belonging to Israel and the countries that support its war on Gaza.

A seawater inlet that separates Asia from Africa, the Red Sea is a major interoceanic passage handling 22 percent of global seaborne container trade.

With the Suez Canal in the north and the Bab el Mandeb Strait in the south, it cuts the distance between Asia and Europe by half. Ships move between the two continents without having to circumnavigate the entire African continent, thus saving fuel and time.

Bloomberg claimed that in exchange for protection to their ships, China and Russia may extend “political support” to the Houthis at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), including the possibility of blocking any resolutions against the group.

While the United States and the United Kingdom have launched airstrikes to neutralise the Houthi threat to maritime traffic amid a steep drop in intercontinental trade, China and Russia have adopted a more reconciliatory approach towards the group, which controls the Yemeni capital, Sanaa.

The two countries abstained as the UNSC voted in favour of a US resolution condemning the attacks by the Houthis on ships in the Red Sea.

The Red Sea route has been critical for Chinese merchandise exports to Europe. Analysts believe the trade corridor has gained more significance for Russia recently as Western sanctions have redirected its oil supplies towards buyers in Asia.

“Many Western companies are now using the longer Cape of Good Hope route because of the geopolitical risks. So a higher share of the commercial vessels still going through the Red Sea are carrying Russian oil or Chinese cargoes,” Richard Bronze, head of geopolitics at London-based research house Energy Aspects, tells TRT World.

Major shipping lines like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have diverted all their vessels bound for the Red Sea to the south – around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa – for the “foreseeable future”.

Bronze says it’s unclear if the latest reported promises by the Houthis will remove the risk to vessels connected to China and Russia. That’s because many of their attacks have involved tankers carrying Russian oil or cargoes linked to China, even though they’ve repeatedly said their targets are limited to vessels with links to the US, UK and Israel.

For example, the Houthis fired missiles that barely missed a ship hauling Russian oil in January. Similarly, they fired at least five missiles towards a Panamanian-flagged but Chinese-owned and Chinese-operated oil tanker on March 23, according to a statement by the US Central Command (CENTCOM).

“The Houthis mainly focus on the ownership of the vessel itself rather than the cargoes and appear to be relying on data that often does not incorporate recent changes of ownership,” says Bronze.

“Unless a process is set up for Russia and China to actively tell the Houthis which vessels to avoid, there will be a persistent risk that these vessels continue to be targeted.”

The confusion over the ownership of the vessels and cargoes played out earlier this month when the Houthis attacked a bulk commodities carrier called the True Confidence, killing two seafarers from the Philippines and another from Vietnam.

The Houthis insisted they attacked “a US ship”, while CENTCOM claimed the vessel was a Barbados-flagged, Liberian-owned bulk carrier.

More than 70 merchant ships received some kind of Houthi threat until March 15, according to Bloomberg. While an overwhelming majority of these threats were flagged as “suspicious approaches” or “sightings,” around a third of these merchant ships received physical damage.

Waning influence of Western powers

Real-time data from PortWatch, a platform set up by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to monitor and simulate trade disruptions, provides a window to the extent of the drop in maritime traffic along the Red Sea trade route.

The latest seven-day moving average of daily transit calls at Bab el Mandeb Strait, located near the area of the recent attacks in the Red Sea, was 27, down 65.4 percent from a year ago when 78 ships would pass through that checkpoint every day.

In contrast, the seven-day moving average of daily transit calls at Cape of Good Hope, located at the southern tip of Africa, has gone up more than 61 percent to 79 ships from 49 a year ago.

Bronze says Western powers can’t do much in response if China and Russia have indeed reached some understanding with the Houthis, designated as a terrorist group by the US.

“The uncomfortable reality for the US and its allies is that their sustained naval presence in the region and dozens of airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen are failing to keep this important maritime trade route safe and open,” he says.

Houthis enjoy the backing of Iran, which is a major economic partner of both China and Russia. Under heavy global sanctions, Iran has been selling most of its oil to China. Western powers have also accused Tehran of providing Moscow with drones and other weaponry in its war on Ukraine.

“Western governments would rather China joined the international maritime coalition but know that is unrealistic, and there is no interest in cooperating with Russia,” Bronze says.

According to Joze Pelayo, associate director at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, both China and Russia value their relationships with some Gulf Arab countries, which have an adverse relationship with the Houthis.

“If any pressure to cut off support to the Houthis is to be heard by Beijing or Moscow, it may have to come from Gulf countries, especially as Russia enjoys increasing economic benefits from these relationships,” Pelayo tells TRT World.

He says this “understanding” is an apparent effort by the Houthis to gain more diplomatic and international leverage.

“For Russia and China, it is just another irresistible opportunity to strike back at the US and challenge its power.”