Biden's exit shakes up 2024 race, shifts age debate to Trump

On Sunday, US President Joe Biden made a statesmanlike decision to withdraw his candidacy for renomination. Without mentioning it, he acknowledged the public's legitimate concerns about his fitness for a second term and his party's realistic worries about his strength in the fall campaign.

He should be honoured for recognising his limitations, which of course are no fault of his own, and the risks they pose for the country.

How does the president's decision change the prospects in the November election? Truth be told, nobody really knows.

The events of 2024 are far beyond our country's historical experience. Although other presidents have taken themselves out of contention during the election year – Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968 – none has ever made the decision so far into the year, in the summer, a month before the party's convention and just over 100 days before Election Day.

Remarkably, in 58 elections over 231 years, no major-party presidential or vice-presidential nominee has died or taken seriously ill during the campaign. The parties have never had to designate a replacement before.

Liability of age

The clearest case for the impact of the decision stems from its cause, the president's age. For almost a year, long before the 81-year-old's stumbling performance in the June debate, majorities of voters – and not just Republicans but independents and Democrats as well – have told pollsters of their worries about the president's ability to do his job.

Whatever the concerns they had about the stability and mental acuity of his opponent, who is three years younger – and voters also voiced them – they were eclipsed by the visible signs of Biden's age-related physical decline.

Voters' hesitation to support a man who might not be up to the demands of the job was a major drag on Biden's candidacy.

By retiring his bid for the nomination, Biden has now removed his age as an issue for voters, and even as a topic for discussion in the media.

The new Democratic nominee, whomever it might be, will be at least two decades younger. In a single stroke, moreover, Biden has transferred a liability of his campaign to the Republican candidate Donald Trump's campaign.

Even eight years ago, when he was a mere lad of 70 years old, former President Donald Trump demonstrated behaviours associated stereotypically with old age – his craving for attention, his rambling train of thought, his crazy assertions – and his symptoms have only grown worse.

At 78, he is now the oldest man ever nominated for president, a year older than Biden in 2020. Biden's withdrawal turns the focus and public concern about the candidate's physical and mental condition onto Trump. It's much better for the Democrats that Trump faces scrutiny about his fitness for office rather than Biden.

Replacing Biden

Other impacts of the president's decision will depend upon whom the Democrats choose to replace him at the top of the ticket. The party is fortunate to have a host of office holders who could be strong presidential contenders: the vice president, several governors, a few senators, even a couple members of the Cabinet.

Against Trump, in the current competitive landscape, some might clearly be stronger than others, however. The Democratic campaign needs little help winning solidly blue states like California and Illinois but it ought to bolster its prospects in the swing states, particularly Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, their must-win "blue wall."

For over a hundred years, governors, with experience as chief executives, have proven to be the strongest candidates, particularly governors who were elected to a second term (or more).

A nominee who is not a member of Biden's administration might more easily be able to put some distance between the Democratic ticket and some current conditions – the security of the border and the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians among them – that rank high on voters' concerns.

Finally, this year, with this opponent, a better candidate will be a woman, to put a spotlight on Trump's personal misogyny and his responsibility for the first Supreme Court decision to withdraw a constitutional right, one of particular concern to women, and for the threat of reversals to come.

For a variety of reasons, I think it is very likely that the Democratic Party will give the nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Biden endorsed soon after his announcement this afternoon. It would do well, however, for the party to make the choice a deliberate one.

Shifting focus

Finally, the president's decision to pass the baton for the final leg of the race gives the prospect for a better balance of messages in the remainder of the campaign. For more than three weeks, the coverage of Joe Biden's failings has been relentless and the attention to Donald Trump's faults scant.

Although it is tempting to criticise the media, Biden's condition was a focus of concern because it was a real concern – to voters. The issue took voters' minds away from the president's accomplishments in office.

It helped sour voters' assessments of circumstances that are usually much to the benefit of the party in power: a strong economy with low unemployment and healthy growth in wages, diminishing inflation, falling rates of crime.

And for Democrats and other voters open to supporting them, the focus on Biden's infirmities dampened the hope and the courage they will need to muster to defeat Donald Trump. The media is already reporting that the Democratic Party had its best day for online fundraising in many a year.

The 2024 election is bound to be close. The American electorate is still closely divided and sharply polarised. But Joe Biden has put his principles before his ambition and given his party a better chance to prevail in November.