Could Gaza boost or sink Kamala Harris's chances in November?

With US President Joe Biden now out of the race for a second term as president, attention turns to his vice president, Kamala Harris, for whom Biden has offered his full support.

Within 30 hours of Biden's announcement, 186 Democratic House members, 43 senators and 23 governors had endorsed Harris, who quickly gained enough delegates to become the official Democratic nominee during the upcoming Democratic National Convention.

The vice president's campaign also made history, shattering fundraising records by raising more than $100 million in 48 hours (of which $81 million was raised in the 24 hours after Biden's announcement).

With excitement growing over the renewed energy the Harris nomination has injected into the Democratic party and its voter base, there has been concern that former president Donald Trump's campaign and his supporters would use Harris's race and gender against her.

However, despite Harris facing an uphill battle in some ways as the first Black, South Asian female presidential nominee, she is almost 20 years younger than Trump. The spotlight that was once on Biden over his age is now glaring over the oldest person to run for the presidency.

Harris's choice of vice president on her ticket will also undoubtedly impact Democrat's chances of winning in November, with some arguing that a white male candidate would offset the inevitable impact of racism and sexism on her candidacy.

Gaza policy

In addition to age, Biden's campaign was also jeopardised by his Gaza policy. More than half a million voters chose to vote uncommitted or left the top of their ballots blank during the Democratic primary to express dissatisfaction with his approach to Israel's war following the October 7 attacks.

Israel's response is now under investigation in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for genocide.

Biden's stance on Gaza was especially expected to hurt him in Michigan, a swing state that has the largest Arab and Muslim American populations in the US.

Voters on both sides of the political divide have castigated Biden for his approach. Many reject unconditional US support for Israel, particularly Arab American, Black and young voters. However, others have also complained he is not doing enough to support it.

In contrast, Harris is seen as being more empathetic to the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza while also calling for the immediate release of hostages.

In a speech in Selma, Alabama on March 4 to commemorate the 59th anniversary of Bloody Sunday, Harris began by addressing what she described as "the humanitarian crisis" in Gaza, stating that "our common humanity compels us to act."

She also accused Israel in the same speech of not doing enough to allow sufficient humanitarian aid into Gaza and said Israel must "work to restore basic services and promote order in Gaza so more food, water, and fuel can reach those in need."

However, for many voters, Harris’s past record does raise questions about what she'll do next. During a 2017 speech to pro-Israeli lobby group AIPAC, she endorsed providing billions of dollars in military support to Israel over a decade.

More recently, in November, Harris was asked about the bombing of refugee camps in Gaza. She expressed sympathy for the loss of innocent lives, but also told reporters, "We are not telling Israel how it should conduct this war."

Previously, she also declared that "President Joe Biden and I are unwavering in our commitment to Israel's security."

To win back some of the voters who had vowed to turn away from Biden, whether because they thought he was doing too much or too little for Israel, as well as maintaining the support of pro-Israel Democratic lawmakers and donors, Harris will have to walk a fine line.

First test

As the likely presidential nominee, her first test on this issue has come early. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been in Washington, DC this week to address a joint session of Congress.

While Netanyahu was formally invited by the Democratic and Republican leaders of the House and Senate, his visit has been met with protests from anti-war activists as well as Israeli hostage families who flew to the US to call for a ceasefire and a return of their loved ones.

Several Democrats have also decided not to attend Netanyahu's speech.

Amidst intense speculation over her own attendance at the speech, where she would normally preside over the joint session in her capacity as vice president, Harris's team said she had previously scheduled plans and would not be there.

In an attempt at a balancing act, however, a Harris aide said the vice president is expected to meet with Netanyahu at the White House separately.

Anti-war voters will be watching Harris’s next moves on Israel and Gaza closely, recognising her potential to re-engage communities that have felt disenfranchised by Biden’s policies.